SimeonNC
Member
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
^ That looks like a good trend for the DC area where our cold source will filter in through CAD. Would be interesting to compare the CMC snowfall mean map for Virginia with the first system.
now I know what birdman is saying, he saying the more snowfall to our north they get with that anafront, the more refrigeration of the air and colder the air is gonna be on top of that, which would help out our CAD, ok ok
And I thought it was known in most research that low pressure tracks tend to trend south of snow cover. The caveat being the snow cover is not there yet and models will be wishy washy until storm #1 completes.
Whatever you do don’t use the ice or sleet accumulations it’s utter garbage 100% of the time. The only thing interesting is the euro/nam combo from time to time for most in the Carolinas. CMC can be useful if Ptype onset is within question...which it seems to be so far. Beyond that it’s really hard to include it in a forecast I’ve noticed..sometimes temps are ok but not great on that model.
olhausen
Member
It’s pretty crazy that the south is looking at a 3rd December in a row of a possible major winter storm. I know Tennessee isn’t the Deep South but its still very rare to get more then a dusting here in Decembe.
SimeonNC
Member
Euro has a 1041 HP over Western PA at hour 84
SimeonNC
Member
Though the Euro is dryer than other models at hours 90-96. Probably not gonna do it
Probably gonna be freezing drizzle at best, need wave #2 here quicker
SimeonNC
Member
Northern GA/Upstate SC gets cold rain.
Brent
Member
Okay Euro
It’s funny that there’s a 1041 over PA, then 48 hours later the rain/snow line is in southeastern Canada. I forgot the recipe for frozen precip around here. It just ain’t like it used to be. That’s for sure
Brent
Member
SimeonNC
Member
Unless there is a good explanation for that, I do not buy that solution tbh.
BHS1975
Member
Euro says cold rain and the gfs mostly agrees except for some ice in nw NC.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Gefs still holding steady
Taking the Euro bias so far this year into consideration, dont sleep on a threat in the 16-17th time frame. Starting the get really block happy in this time frame and if it is once again under modeling the Pac ridge, the threat may be significant.
yeah, weak -NAO, tropospheric PV lobe in northern Canada, 50/50 low in NE Canada, blocking around northern AK, Aleutian low, only issue is that WAR trend
BHS1975
Member