Pattern The Great December Dump

[SimeonNC]

18z
View attachment 27544
00z
View attachment 27545

Wow

 

[BirdManDoomW]

^ That looks like a good trend for the DC area where our cold source will filter in through CAD. Would be interesting to compare the CMC snowfall mean map for Virginia with the first system.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

now I know what birdman is saying, he saying the more snowfall to our north they get with that anafront, the more refrigeration of the air and colder the air is gonna be on top of that, which would help out our CAD, ok ok

 

[BirdManDoomW]

now I know what birdman is saying, he saying the more snowfall to our north they get with that anafront, the more refrigeration of the air and colder the air is gonna be on top of that, which would help out our CAD, ok ok

And I thought it was known in most research that low pressure tracks tend to trend south of snow cover. The caveat being the snow cover is not there yet and models will be wishy washy until storm #1 completes.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It will be interesting to verify the CMC with short range models once it gets within 84 hours. I'm going to save the model images from the CMC to work off of to help of the creation of my predictions.

Whatever you do don’t use the ice or sleet accumulations it’s utter garbage 100% of the time. The only thing interesting is the euro/nam combo from time to time for most in the Carolinas. CMC can be useful if Ptype onset is within question...which it seems to be so far. Beyond that it’s really hard to include it in a forecast I’ve noticed..sometimes temps are ok but not great on that model.

 

[olhausen]

It’s pretty crazy that the south is looking at a 3rd December in a row of a possible major winter storm. I know Tennessee isn’t the Deep South but its still very rare to get more then a dusting here in Decembe.

 

[SimeonNC]

Euro has a 1041 HP over Western PA at hour 84

 

[SimeonNC]

Though the Euro is dryer than other models at hours 90-96. Probably not gonna do it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably gonna be freezing drizzle at best, need wave #2 here quicker

 

[SimeonNC]

Northern GA/Upstate SC gets cold rain.

 

[Brent]

Okay Euro

 

[Rick]

Can someone post euro for first system ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s funny that there’s a 1041 over PA, then 48 hours later the rain/snow line is in southeastern Canada. I forgot the recipe for frozen precip around here. It just ain’t like it used to be. That’s for sure

 

[Brent]

Can someone post euro for first system ?

 

[SimeonNC]

It’s funny that there’s a 1041 over PA, then 48 hours later the rain/snow line is in southeastern Canada. I forgot the recipe for frozen precip around here. It just ain’t like it used to be. That’s for sure

Unless there is a good explanation for that, I do not buy that solution tbh.

 

[BHS1975]

Euro says cold rain and the gfs mostly agrees except for some ice in nw NC.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs still holding steady

 

[Arcc]

Taking the Euro bias so far this year into consideration, dont sleep on a threat in the 16-17th time frame. Starting the get really block happy in this time frame and if it is once again under modeling the Pac ridge, the threat may be significant.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Taking the Euro bias so far this year into consideration, dont sleep on a threat in the 16-17th time frame. Starting the get really block happy in this time frame and if it is once again under modeling the Pac ridge, the threat may be significant.

yeah, weak -NAO, tropospheric PV lobe in northern Canada, 50/50 low in NE Canada, blocking around northern AK, Aleutian low, only issue is that WAR trend

 

[BHS1975]

yeah, weak -NAO, tropospheric PV lobe in northern Canada, 50/50 low in NE Canada, blocking around northern AK, Aleutian low, only issue is that WAR trend View attachment 27551

WAR=cold rain


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