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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jessy89 said:
I hope your right
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Certainly not my forecast but anytime you have a storm system prior to any possible event..often the models are really off with the second storm. Maybe moreso when dealing with snowfall within the northern CAD region. Just saying it’s another way for things to change..and watch for. Mostly for foothills but possibly Piedmont too (Winston-Greensboro).
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Certainly not my forecast but anytime you have a storm system prior to any possible event..often the models are really off with the second storm. Maybe moreso when dealing with snowfall within the northern CAD region. Just saying it’s another way for things to change..and watch for. Mostly for foothills but possibly Piedmont too (Winston-Greensboro).
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looks pretty high pressure-ish. I wouldn't be surprised as well taking verbatim from the GFS.
gfs_mslpa_us_12.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Haven’t seen it mentioned but with the late week storm...I kind of have some suspicion that the Wednesday system COULD alter the CAD. Meaning if some of the heavier members verify with snowpack I could see the late week storm ending up much colder due to the snowpack over NC mountains(possibly northern foothills) and the Virginia’s. The cold air should solidify the snowpack and become a real player for sleet/freezing rain chances too in these regions. For those outside of the primary CAD regions, I would root for some heavy snowpack development in areas of Virginia. Again..the difference being 1-4” vs 4-8” of snow with the first system could make a big difference for those further south with the second system.
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If that were to happen then you would also have to watch for the development of a mesohigh that would lock in the stronger CAD
 
This might be really out there or grasping at straws but the low pressure track may even change if Tennessee does well. Sometimes the low track is shifted further south when snow cover is realized. Again not a forecast just wishful thinking with our first system to affect our second system.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
This might be really out there or grasping at straws but the low pressure track may even change if Tennessee does well. Sometimes the low track is shifted further south when snow cover is realized. Again not a forecast just wishful thinking with our first system to affect our second system.
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What? The low track is shifted south due to snow cover?


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Jon said:
What? The low track is shifted south due to snow cover?
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It’s well documented low pressure systems tend to tick or trend south of snow cover in terms of track. This can sometimes leave gaps or a snow hole (ask someone in DC) as new snow cover is developed even further south.
 
I counted about 15 of the 50 or so 18z euro members that really hammer Virginia with the first storm..which could enhance CAD on the latter storm. And of course the NAM but it’s not very reliable at this range imo compared to other resources we got (like the other 35 euro members aka majority).
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Wasn’t really expecting that from the CMC ... why do we have to have the two most unreliable models on our side ... ugh
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In some cases, the CMC isn't always unreliable. Comparing the CMC with the Euro, the CMC just has the moisture further inland while the Euro is drier and doesn't have the moisture further inland like the CMC. I would throw out the GFS at this point. However, I'm thinking it will join the party sooner or later.

CMC, moisture further inland, not as dry as Euro. Double barreled high on the 12z CMC from today.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

EURO is drier obviously (I might be wrong, but I think the Euro as a dry bias.)
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
WxWatch said:
In some cases, the CMC isn't always unreliable. Comparing the CMC with the Euro, the CMC just has the moisture further inland while the Euro is drier and doesn't have the moisture further inland like the CMC. I would throw out the GFS at this point. However, I'm thinking it will join the party sooner or later.

CMC, moisture further inland, not as dry as Euro. Double barreled high on the 12z CMC from today.
View attachment 27530

EURO is drier obviously (I might be wrong, but I think the Euro as a dry bias.)
View attachment 27531
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Is your prediction of a winter storm still happening? As expected


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CADEffect said:
BREAKING: Volcano erupts on White Island off New Zealand's North Island; I wonder how this effects the patterns.


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Typically smoke and ash blocks the sun and would cause a decrease in OLR anomalies (Hot Sunny It is). This takes place arond New Zealand
I think red Represents Sunny
I think Blue Represents Cloudy
Even though New Zealand is pretty far south. one could argue that I would support warmer phases of the MJO in the shorterm, but in the longterm a cooler globe.

But don't hold me too that, I haven't done any research on this.
plot_olr_tvalue_8pan_novmar.gif
 
Looking at the old CMC run further, that is outlandish with wintry weather for many, I believe is largely the result of it laying down snowpack in Virginia with the first system. If it misses the first system I believe it will miss the second system. There is a lot of connectivity between the two IMO. If the GFS/EURO ever come on board, I believe they also need to double down on the first system for Virginia (our immediate cad neighbor).
 
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