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Pattern The Great December Dump

I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
 
Golf7575 said:
I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
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Can you get the convection west of the Dateline to reduce? Last I checked it was active there though I haven't checked recently. If we could somehow have convection more concentrated east of the Dateline in Nino 3.4, that would be nice.
 
Golf7575 said:
I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
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Won't be ... don't worry ... ;)

Now the "what" is another topic of discussion ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Won't be ... don't worry ... ;)
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Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.??
 
Golf7575 said:
Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.??
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The "lock" is the part I'm not sold on. It's gonna be "warm" in and throughout December ... and I may be 100% wrong, and will admit it if so when the time comes, but the pattern and rhythm of the atmospheric "music" suggests it's not a warm lock afterwards ... we'll just have to wait and see ... hope for all you folks north of I-10 I have a clue ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
The "lock" is the part I'm not sold on. It's gonna be "warm" in and throughout December ... and I may be 100% wrong, and will admit it if so when the time comes, but the pattern and rhythm of the atmospheric "music" suggests it's not a warm lock afterwards ... we'll just have to wait and see ... hope for all you folks north of I-10 I have a clue ... o_O
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I am north of i40 so we shall see Phil. Take those dispositions one at a time bud.??
 
Golf7575 said:
Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.
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As JB always says, what goes up must come down. I believe that’s a true statement.


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GaWx said:
The EPS hasn't warmed much (of course it already was much warmer than GEFS) but the GEFS has warmed a lot even though it remains cooler than the EPS as per the usual. The EPS isn't a torch but it does show a few degrees warmer than normal when averaged out over the 6-15 day period.

Very active/mainly Pacific/zonal flow becomes somewhat warmer than normal in winter though not a torch mainly because highs are kept down by rain/clouds.
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The EPS actually appeared to have cooled somewhat and I expect it to continue with how the Euro suite has constantly undermodeled the Pac ridge. Probably end up with something close to average.
 
Golf7575 said:
I am north of i40 so we shall see Phil. Take those dispositions one at a time bud.??
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Golf, I would think you should do pretty well in the next few weeks. You're located much closer to MO than to LA. Down here, I'm still waiting for winter storms I can chase that can just get down to the I-20 corridor, let alone the Gulf coast! I'm thinking most board members may see something January.
 
Haven’t seen it mentioned but with the late week storm...I kind of have some suspicion that the Wednesday system COULD alter the CAD. Meaning if some of the heavier members verify with snowpack I could see the late week storm ending up much colder due to the snowpack over NC mountains(possibly northern foothills) and the Virginia’s. The cold air should solidify the snowpack and become a real player for sleet/freezing rain chances too in these regions. For those outside of the primary CAD regions, I would root for some heavy snowpack development in areas of Virginia. Again..the difference being 1-4” vs 4-8” of snow with the first system could make a big difference for those further south with the second system.
 
I highly doubt models are going to handle a CAD event well if a prior snowfall is possible to the north and west. Again, won’t know everything until we see how the first one plays out. I just wouldn’t be shocked if something changed to more wintry at the very last minute IF the first system does well or extra extra well.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I highly doubt models are going to handle a CAD event well if a prior snowfall is possible to the north and west. Again, won’t know everything until we see how the first one plays out. I just wouldn’t be shocked if something changed to more wintry at the very last minute.
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I hope your right


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Jessy89 said:
I hope your right
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Certainly not my forecast but anytime you have a storm system prior to any possible event..often the models are really off with the second storm. Maybe moreso when dealing with snowfall within the northern CAD region. Just saying it’s another way for things to change..and watch for. Mostly for foothills but possibly Piedmont too (Winston-Greensboro).
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Certainly not my forecast but anytime you have a storm system prior to any possible event..often the models are really off with the second storm. Maybe moreso when dealing with snowfall within the northern CAD region. Just saying it’s another way for things to change..and watch for. Mostly for foothills but possibly Piedmont too (Winston-Greensboro).
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looks pretty high pressure-ish. I wouldn't be surprised as well taking verbatim from the GFS.
gfs_mslpa_us_12.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Haven’t seen it mentioned but with the late week storm...I kind of have some suspicion that the Wednesday system COULD alter the CAD. Meaning if some of the heavier members verify with snowpack I could see the late week storm ending up much colder due to the snowpack over NC mountains(possibly northern foothills) and the Virginia’s. The cold air should solidify the snowpack and become a real player for sleet/freezing rain chances too in these regions. For those outside of the primary CAD regions, I would root for some heavy snowpack development in areas of Virginia. Again..the difference being 1-4” vs 4-8” of snow with the first system could make a big difference for those further south with the second system.
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If that were to happen then you would also have to watch for the development of a mesohigh that would lock in the stronger CAD
 
This might be really out there or grasping at straws but the low pressure track may even change if Tennessee does well. Sometimes the low track is shifted further south when snow cover is realized. Again not a forecast just wishful thinking with our first system to affect our second system.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
This might be really out there or grasping at straws but the low pressure track may even change if Tennessee does well. Sometimes the low track is shifted further south when snow cover is realized. Again not a forecast just wishful thinking with our first system to affect our second system.
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What? The low track is shifted south due to snow cover?


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Jon said:
What? The low track is shifted south due to snow cover?
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It’s well documented low pressure systems tend to tick or trend south of snow cover in terms of track. This can sometimes leave gaps or a snow hole (ask someone in DC) as new snow cover is developed even further south.
 
I counted about 15 of the 50 or so 18z euro members that really hammer Virginia with the first storm..which could enhance CAD on the latter storm. And of course the NAM but it’s not very reliable at this range imo compared to other resources we got (like the other 35 euro members aka majority).
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Wasn’t really expecting that from the CMC ... why do we have to have the two most unreliable models on our side ... ugh
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In some cases, the CMC isn't always unreliable. Comparing the CMC with the Euro, the CMC just has the moisture further inland while the Euro is drier and doesn't have the moisture further inland like the CMC. I would throw out the GFS at this point. However, I'm thinking it will join the party sooner or later.

CMC, moisture further inland, not as dry as Euro. Double barreled high on the 12z CMC from today.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

EURO is drier obviously (I might be wrong, but I think the Euro as a dry bias.)
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
WxWatch said:
In some cases, the CMC isn't always unreliable. Comparing the CMC with the Euro, the CMC just has the moisture further inland while the Euro is drier and doesn't have the moisture further inland like the CMC. I would throw out the GFS at this point. However, I'm thinking it will join the party sooner or later.

CMC, moisture further inland, not as dry as Euro. Double barreled high on the 12z CMC from today.
View attachment 27530

EURO is drier obviously (I might be wrong, but I think the Euro as a dry bias.)
View attachment 27531
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Is your prediction of a winter storm still happening? As expected


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CADEffect said:
BREAKING: Volcano erupts on White Island off New Zealand's North Island; I wonder how this effects the patterns.


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Typically smoke and ash blocks the sun and would cause a decrease in OLR anomalies (Hot Sunny It is). This takes place arond New Zealand
I think red Represents Sunny
I think Blue Represents Cloudy
Even though New Zealand is pretty far south. one could argue that I would support warmer phases of the MJO in the shorterm, but in the longterm a cooler globe.

But don't hold me too that, I haven't done any research on this.
plot_olr_tvalue_8pan_novmar.gif
 
Looking at the old CMC run further, that is outlandish with wintry weather for many, I believe is largely the result of it laying down snowpack in Virginia with the first system. If it misses the first system I believe it will miss the second system. There is a lot of connectivity between the two IMO. If the GFS/EURO ever come on board, I believe they also need to double down on the first system for Virginia (our immediate cad neighbor).
 
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