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Pattern The Great December Dump

I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
 
Golf7575 said:
I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
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Can you get the convection west of the Dateline to reduce? Last I checked it was active there though I haven't checked recently. If we could somehow have convection more concentrated east of the Dateline in Nino 3.4, that would be nice.
 
Golf7575 said:
I think i may have asked this question before but what is needed to take place to get the ao and nao negative or the whole atmospheric pattern more favorable for longer lasting cold shots instead of the transient stuff? @GaWx, since the glaam is negative currently, how can we get it more positive that may promote HLB in the future? I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter.
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Won't be ... don't worry ... ;)

Now the "what" is another topic of discussion ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Won't be ... don't worry ... ;)
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Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.??
 
Golf7575 said:
Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.??
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The "lock" is the part I'm not sold on. It's gonna be "warm" in and throughout December ... and I may be 100% wrong, and will admit it if so when the time comes, but the pattern and rhythm of the atmospheric "music" suggests it's not a warm lock afterwards ... we'll just have to wait and see ... hope for all you folks north of I-10 I have a clue ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
The "lock" is the part I'm not sold on. It's gonna be "warm" in and throughout December ... and I may be 100% wrong, and will admit it if so when the time comes, but the pattern and rhythm of the atmospheric "music" suggests it's not a warm lock afterwards ... we'll just have to wait and see ... hope for all you folks north of I-10 I have a clue ... o_O
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I am north of i40 so we shall see Phil. Take those dispositions one at a time bud.??
 
Golf7575 said:
Phil i am further nw than most, but we struggle for winterstorms as much as anyone else. My concern like anyone else is a warm pattern that locks in weeks at a time, despite this modoki niño we have. I thought the forcing along and west of the dateline promoted more blocking in winter, but perhaps that's not true.
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As JB always says, what goes up must come down. I believe that’s a true statement.


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GaWx said:
The EPS hasn't warmed much (of course it already was much warmer than GEFS) but the GEFS has warmed a lot even though it remains cooler than the EPS as per the usual. The EPS isn't a torch but it does show a few degrees warmer than normal when averaged out over the 6-15 day period.

Very active/mainly Pacific/zonal flow becomes somewhat warmer than normal in winter though not a torch mainly because highs are kept down by rain/clouds.
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The EPS actually appeared to have cooled somewhat and I expect it to continue with how the Euro suite has constantly undermodeled the Pac ridge. Probably end up with something close to average.
 
Golf7575 said:
I am north of i40 so we shall see Phil. Take those dispositions one at a time bud.??
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Golf, I would think you should do pretty well in the next few weeks. You're located much closer to MO than to LA. Down here, I'm still waiting for winter storms I can chase that can just get down to the I-20 corridor, let alone the Gulf coast! I'm thinking most board members may see something January.
 
@KyloG how was the 18z eps for the Thursday/Friday system if it even goes out that far
 
Haven’t seen it mentioned but with the late week storm...I kind of have some suspicion that the Wednesday system COULD alter the CAD. Meaning if some of the heavier members verify with snowpack I could see the late week storm ending up much colder due to the snowpack over NC mountains(possibly northern foothills) and the Virginia’s. The cold air should solidify the snowpack and become a real player for sleet/freezing rain chances too in these regions. For those outside of the primary CAD regions, I would root for some heavy snowpack development in areas of Virginia. Again..the difference being 1-4” vs 4-8” of snow with the first system could make a big difference for those further south with the second system.
 
I highly doubt models are going to handle a CAD event well if a prior snowfall is possible to the north and west. Again, won’t know everything until we see how the first one plays out. I just wouldn’t be shocked if something changed to more wintry at the very last minute IF the first system does well or extra extra well.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I highly doubt models are going to handle a CAD event well if a prior snowfall is possible to the north and west. Again, won’t know everything until we see how the first one plays out. I just wouldn’t be shocked if something changed to more wintry at the very last minute.
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I hope your right


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