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Pattern Sweatember '22

Question.. On GRlevel 3 KFFC I am noting a very large "shield" of returns about 60-70 miles wide East/West of KFFC by some 80-90 miles... Could these be birds, as I saw a social media posting asking for "lights out" tonight across North and Central GA with large bird migration overnight
 
@Downeastnc has been on vacation this week down on the Pamlico River and has had some good views of some storms. He is about to get another big one and he just sent me this image of his location.
 

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WeatherNC said:
0.00" today, 0.14" yesterday, 0.15" MTD, 27.72" YTD. Absent some TC action we will finish the year well below avg.
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I'm the opposite: 38.85" YTD/ 14"+ for the summer. We really don't need a tropical mess, especially Floyd/Chattooga who are still reeling from Labor Day flooding.
 
I had a solid .85” overnight that I slept right through… 2.71” MTD
 
DopplerWx said:
there aren't any temps in the 50s on the gfs out to 300+hrs wtf. awful.
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Just give it a few runs. Remember earlier discussions of now only (half) believing the models out to five days. A few days back I posted a GFS run showing the RDU area getting very little rain; how that changed.
 
EmersonGA said:
Turn the rain check off. It sucks during the summer with localized storms.
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Are the totals without rain check more accurate in general or during certain times of the year?

By the way, the little man bumped me up to .88. I like that dude
 
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Posting GFS model runs will get you nowhere. There's suppose to be heatwave after heatwave in the extended that never materializes. Plus we are getting to the time of the year, where temps are going to start dropping even if we are above average. The pattern is really progressive anyways so you're likely going to see below average and above average temps all in the same week.
 
iGRXY said:
Posting GFS model runs will get you nowhere. There's suppose to be heatwave after heatwave in the extended that never materializes. Plus we are getting to the time of the year, where temps are going to start dropping even if we are above average. The pattern is really progressive anyways so you're likely going to see below average and above average temps all in the same week.
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Yes… if you remember a couple weeks ago, the GFS was showing triple digit heat for much of the Carolinas for this coming weekend.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes… if you remember a couple weeks ago, the GFS was showing triple digit heat for much of the Carolinas for this coming weekend.
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I honestly don't see the value of running the models past 7 days most of the time. In a really stable pattern, maybe there's some degree of accuracy, but in a really stable pattern, you could probably just extrapolate yourself and get the same solution. Obviously, local/sensible weather is going to be wildly inaccurate at that range.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't see the value of running the models past 7 days most of the time. In a really stable pattern, maybe there's some degree of accuracy, but in a really stable pattern, you could probably just extrapolate yourself and get the same solution. Obviously, local/sensible weather is going to be wildly inaccurate at that range.
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I certainly agree with not seeing the point in operational models past 7 days or so. Obviously I would still like to see Ensembles ran just to try and get a since of overall patterns
 
Rain Cold said:
Are the totals without rain check more accurate in general or during certain times of the year?

By the way, the little man bumped me up to .88. I like that dude
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I generally like it during widespread rain events so I'll turn it on during the winter usually. I had a storm train over my house earlier this summer and drop well over 2.5". The rain man tried to cut that to like under .5" since it only rained in a small area. That's when I made the call.
 
EmersonGA said:
I generally like it during widespread rain events so I'll turn it on during the winter usually. I had a storm train over my house earlier this summer and drop well over 2.5". The rain man tried to cut that to like under .5" since it only rained in a small area. That's when I made the call.
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I wonder where they are getting their information? Mine always gets cut.
 
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