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Pattern Swamptember 2021

metwannabe said:
Sadly, not sure which one wins, Euro ain't what it used to be
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Yeah that's a mess. The euro has been trending toward that look over the past 3 days but like you said it hasn't been what it used to be in the d7-10. It's kind of crazy the gfs would be significant heat post d10 the euro would likely be about to unload a significant early season cold shot.
 
That's why posting those CFS monthly forecasts are really pointless. Models can't latch onto a solution beyond 3-5 days at most now so no model is going to get an accurate picture 3-4 months down the road. That's why that thing changes just about every time it runs. Folks are right about there being a ton that goes into what kind of weather we get. La Nina doesn't guarantee dry and mild as last year showed. The strength of the ENSO is important, do you have blocking like we did in the atlantic last year but with limited cold in the source regions and a less than cooperative pacific. I will die on the hill that we don't need a massive -NAO to get cold or snow. Get the pacific right first and you're cooking with grease. As long as we can just have mostly those 30's and 40 degree days (I actually like those cold and dreary days in winter) with some cold shots and a couple snows, that is a perfect winter to me.
 
iGRXY said:
That's why posting those CFS monthly forecasts are really pointless. Models can't latch onto a solution beyond 3-5 days at most now so no model is going to get an accurate picture 3-4 months down the road. That's why that thing changes just about every time it runs. Folks are right about there being a ton that goes into what kind of weather we get. La Nina doesn't guarantee dry and mild as last year showed. The strength of the ENSO is important, do you have blocking like we did in the atlantic last year but with limited cold in the source regions and a less than cooperative pacific. I will die on the hill that we don't need a massive -NAO to get cold or snow. Get the pacific right first and you're cooking with grease. As long as we can just have mostly those 30's and 40 degree days (I actually like those cold and dreary days in winter) with some cold shots and a couple snows, that is a perfect winter to me.
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Yeah agreed last winter would have been perfect we just didn’t get the snows
 
A beautiful sweet treat today I might need the 90s to heat me back up .. honestly if we don’t see upper 90s I’ll survive those were miserable … 90 and lower I’ll be Gucci
 
I spy with my little eye .. A FALL FRONT! Combo with a tropical storm is bound to pull those temps down through the SE this was the thing i talked about yesterday that I want to bet on for our September fall feeling … alas it’s way out in la la land but it’s there BF33E49C-43F6-41E8-B512-0305AADA144A.png4DCDE39E-88C6-4EB1-B5B9-ED840ED7A94C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Eps doesn’t have the cold the euro has
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That op euro run was likely on the extreme side it might have unloaded one of the more impressive cool to cold snaps we have seen for mid September. The eps is doing that thing again like last winter where it had massive 30+ degree differences between max and min
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I dont know why This was weenied ?? I was just asking a question lol I didn’t think op looked cold on 500 mb … my bad ?
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It was about to get real cool at least into the northern plains/lakes/NE at D10+ but nothing other than a few eps members support that clean of a tall western ridge. The 12z cmc was about the closest thing I've seen so far and it wasn't really close. I'd expect the 12z euro to come back to reality a little unless it's really sniffing something outecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png
ecmwf_z500a_namer_11 (7).png
gem_z500a_namer_41 (2).png
 
SD said:
This euro run should end up nothing like the 0z run and have a SER
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That SER looks dirty at first mixed with cooler 850s as it mixes in the anticyclonic flow aloft from the Atlantic, would probably be towards the end of that ridge where we bake
 
That euro run looks much more similar to the eps and gefs.

The vortex it's trying to build north of Hudson Bay is interesting if it becomes a thing especially with the block near the pole. This overall look is pretty warm for the SE but we are going to start to build some early snow cover in Canadaecmwf_z500a_nhem_11 (16).png
 
Euro really isn’t that hot .. I was checking out temps and at highest it got to 91 one day in the next 240 hours and there were times of quite low Dewpoint’s and not constant oppressiveness … y’all making it sound like we got a death ridge .. this ain’t nothing ? next
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro really isn’t that hot .. I was checking out temps and at highest it got to 91 one day in the next 240 hours and there were times of quite low Dewpoint’s and not constant oppressiveness … y’all making it sound like we got a death ridge .. this ain’t nothing ? next
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That’s nearly 7-10 AN for that time, and plus the first part of the ridge looks dirty/mixed with cool air aloft
 
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