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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

As I mentioned yesterday, watch and see if it maintains this subtropical look. Of it does watch where that "frontal" band moves on shore for training convection.
 
0z Euro is way east basically onshore tomorrow night in the Florida big bend

And much weaker
 
Brent said:
0z Euro is way east basically onshore tomorrow night in the Florida big bend
And much weaker
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The latest Euro run is only 250 miles ENE of the run from 24 hours ago and gets it to within 115 miles of Phil as of 8 PM Sunday! Walking may not be recommended at Vets park. Wait til Phil sees this after he wakes up. But something tells me he won't be surprised as he kept warning us about the track uncertainty.

Maybe it is weaker due to the cooler far E Gulf SSTs?
 
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Brent said:
Makes sense east=weaker cooler water and less time

This is a massive win for the gfs to start the season too
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A massive win ? It had this thing east of Florida for like 5 days in a row . And it's only been correcting east after moving towards a euro track
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Lol JB wants this become a hurricane so bad so his forecast does not bust

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BPATL said:
The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia…4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=162393

FFC seems to be downplaying this, per usual. Do not understand their thinking??? Any thoughts?
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3-4 inches of rain with wind gusts in the 30mph range . How is that downplaying when it's an extremely weak system
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I missed where it it actually made landfall....where was it? Oh wait, it hasnt happened. So your GUESS, backed by zero evidence, model interpretation, etc, wont be anything but that...a lucky guess. Wishcasting every system to the Atlanta area is bound to be right every once in a while.
 
Inland effects will be a bit tricky if your not close to landfall. There is going to be a pretty big dry slot with this. Even on the east side. There are parts of GA that will see this. And maybe some rain amounts around an inch or so.
 
Storm5 said:
3-4 inches of rain with wind gusts in the 30mph range . How is that downplaying when it's an extremely weak system
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It isn't. It would have to be a 65 mph storm at landfall and would have to intensify a lot today. Latest path seems to put the outer bands over N GA, so severe weather is what I would be looking for. I think the max on this is 55 mph at this point.
 
deltadog03 said:
Inland effects will be a bit tricky if your not close to landfall. There is going to be a pretty big dry slot with this. Even on the east side. There are parts of GA that will see this. And maybe some rain amounts around an inch or so.
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Yep good point . Someone is gonna get dry slotted no doubt . Just look at southern Florida currently . They are getting shafted from the big totals they were expecting

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Storm5 said:
Yep good point . Someone is gonna get dry slotted no doubt . Just look at southern Florida currently . They are getting shafted from the big totals they were expecting

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I believe someone mentioned that whoever is on that N/NW could get hit pretty good (for lack of a better term).

NAM shows this (I know its overamped)

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Under a flood watch here until Tuesday 8AM, for 3-6” of rain, with locally 8-10” amounts!
 
The system should accelerate once inland as it gets squeezed between the bermuda high and trough in the rockies which might put a cap on large areas seeing huge rain totals. That said the setup favors big totals in the upslope areas of the apps where double digit totals could fall

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This storm is a west side storm ATM, east side getting dried out some. I think later today it may moist up with day time heating. It also looks to be heading somewhat of a "Westish" motion but i could be wrong
 
Up to 50 mph and 994 mb pressure. No cone adjustments from what I could see. The discussion also states Alberto is transitioning to a tropical cyclone now and should be one later today or tonight.
 
West jog or movement is happening. The Rap really ramps up this storm before landfall.
 
2 things. It appears the LLC is on the eastern part of the ball of storms, and still moving north. The other thing is, to me, it’s very clear that GA is going to get dry slotted. Yes we will pick up prob 1-3” with some higher amounts, but unless your near the center after landfall your not going to see the super high totals. AL being the heaviest rain areas.
 
deltadog03 said:
2 things. It appears the LLC is on the eastern part of the ball of storms, and still moving north. The other thing is, to me, it’s very clear that GA is going to get dry slotted. Yes we will pick up prob 1-3” with some higher amounts, but unless your near the center after landfall your not going to see the super high totals. AL being the heaviest rain areas.
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Looks to me that N GA, atleast, is going to get hammered by the monster band of rain that is just E of Florida, and will rotate NW into S.C. and E GA. NGa is also shown to get 3-5” of rain, so not sure about dryslot?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks to me that N GA, atleast, is going to get hammered by the monster band of rain that is just E of Florida, and will rotate NW into S.C. and E GA. NGa is also shown to get 3-5” of rain, so not sure about dryslot?
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Upslope areas will more than likely see the most rain in the state of GA if currents trends continue IMHO
 
I do think there is a pretty decent severe setup for GA tho as well
 
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