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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

GaWx said:
In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.
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I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward by 5/29, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!
 
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Brent said:
Euro looks to be near hurricane strength at landfall :eek::weenie:
ibkwev.jpg

ibkwev.jpg
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It is just an eyewall, but the euro has a well defined one and stronger too. May be a strong ts at landfall.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looks like euro was east this run, clearly seen above near AL/FL boarder and moving north. Looks like it’s a pretty healthy TS. Nice setup for most of us for rain. Maybe severe in AL and GA?
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The other models shift west while the Euro shifts east. Seems to be typical when a consensus is near. I think a curve into Mobile area to New Orleans will be the final track before the low goes east and drops tons of rain over the SE.
 
deltadog03 said:
Looks like euro was east this run, clearly seen above near AL/FL boarder and moving north. Looks like it’s a pretty healthy TS. Nice setup for most of us for rain. Maybe severe in AL and GA?
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On my way into a CLE and no time to study weather; does not surprise at all if there is an east drift; can't look now, but if memory from earlier today serves correct, there's a trough in the lower plains/TX moving east and if so that may inhibit the further west solution some models showed earlier today. May move it east some (???).
This is all based on memory, but that was my Noon impression.
Back on line when the CLE ends at 9:00.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242323
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,
although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm activity
is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is
likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf
of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service for information on gale warnings associated with
this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if
necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba
and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next
week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 200 AM EDT Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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NOAA upping their hurricane seasonal forecast today, ironically, as we are about to get our first depression. Going 10-16 names storms !
Now a 90% chance of development on our gulf storm!
 
Levi's discussion ... Very good (obviously and without need to say) and explains that trough I was remembering from lunch today mentioned in a couple posts above as I was walking into a CLE ... Very well worth the watch and listen ...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blo...rain-over-most-of-southeast-u-s-this-weekend/
~~~~~~~~
... and not to pollute Levi's discussion, but rather to get it all on to one post, this from JB 2 hours ago ... After the coming 10 days, the tropics may be quiet till August
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The other models shift west while the Euro shifts east. Seems to be typical when a consensus is near. I think a curve into Mobile area to New Orleans will be the final track before the low goes east and drops tons of rain over the SE.
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I’m leaning a bit to the UK and GFS idea with a bit weaker and sheared system. If this were August or September I could buy the further west track but the steering mechanism to do so has trended weaker and I don’t think the Bermuda ridge will be quite as strong as the Euro indicates. It had an issue last year with being a bit too strong with the ridging at times as well and the UK usually handles these setups quite well. Either way plenty of rain is on the way for most of the SE!
 
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I’m not expecting much organization from this until Saturday morning. Once it gets going, assuming shear is low, it could get cranking pretty quickly. The biggest difference in models is how the upper low and trough sets up. Some orient this so that 90L gets under little to no shear and it bombs while others like the gfs don’t and shear it heavily.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just
east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined
overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become
better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily
become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much
of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This
system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,
and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
for information on gale warnings associated with this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 200 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$

Forecaster Stewart
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