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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

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There will be some heavy rain but not like earlier runs were saying and not like we are going to see in AL. The upslope areas of GA will see the most probably
 
I think the LLC and MLC are decoupled. Looks like LLC is moving NNW
 
The dry slot make sense early as the system transitions from subtropical to tropical. The eastward mousture plume and frontogenesis will advance northeast and the mousture associated with alberto will continue north northwest. This will leave a relative pwat and qpf minima somewhere over ga or SC. That's not to say there won't be rain in those areas but the best areas of lift and mousture are on either side.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
BPATL said:
The way it looks on sat right now, none of us will get any, Looks like it is moving due west..
Click to expand...

This is expected and well modeled. As it interacts with the ULL and shear decreases the circulation is going to do a loop, or at least a brief W to WSW motion and then it’ll start moving north later tonight.
 
The model consensus is suggesting that SE GA and S SC will average near 2", which would be perfect since it would be very beneficial while not causing more than isolated short term street flooding. Looking at the radar upstream, I think we have a decent shot at this. So,
no dry spot here by any means but also no problems from too heavy rain. We've already received some by the way.
 
Last edited:
Eastern 2/3 of AL is going to get some major rain...pretty sharp cutoff as you move east in to GA. Going to be a fun system to watch evolve.
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 271743
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
to occur later today or tonight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of
Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning
area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily
to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the
warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach
the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
 
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018


GAZ005>009-012>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078>082-
089>094-102>104-281000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FF.A.0004.180528T1500Z-180530T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-
White-Floyd-Bartow-Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-
Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-
Oglethorpe-Wilkes-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-
Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-
Fayette-Clayton-Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-
Troup-Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Harris-
Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Stewart-Webster-Sumter-
Including the cities of Calhoun, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Rome,
Cartersville, Gainesville, Marietta, Atlanta, Lawrenceville,
Athens, Carrollton, Douglasville, East Point, Decatur, Conyers,
Covington, Newnan, Peachtree City, Griffin, Milledgeville, Macon,
Columbus, Lumpkin, and Americus
320 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Georgia...east
central Georgia...north central Georgia...northeast Georgia...
northwest Georgia and west central Georgia...including the
following areas...in central Georgia...Baldwin...Bibb...
Butts...Crawford...Jasper...Jones...Monroe...Peach and Putnam.
In east central Georgia...Greene...Hancock...Taliaferro...
Warren and Wilkes. In north central Georgia...Barrow...
Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...
Fannin...Fayette...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gwinnett...Hall...
Henry...Lumpkin...Morgan...Newton...North Fulton...Pickens...
Rockdale...South Fulton...Union and Walton. In northeast
Georgia...Banks...Clarke...Jackson...Madison...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Towns and White. In northwest Georgia...Bartow...
Carroll...Floyd...Gordon...Haralson...Murray...Paulding and
Polk. In west central Georgia...Chattahoochee...Coweta...
Harris...Heard...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...
Muscogee...Pike...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Upson and Webster.

* From Monday morning through Tuesday evening

* Subtropical storm Alberto will progress northward through the
Florida Panhandle and Alabama through Monday evening bringing
abundant moisture along and east of its track. This will allow
for increased rainfall potential across the local area. Although
average rainfall totals across the entire watch will only
average 2 to 3 inches, banded precipitation could lead to some
areas receiving as much as 4 to 5 inches through Tuesday. These
rainfall amounts may lead to flash flooding across the area as
well as some river and small creek flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Click to expand...
 
Things should be interesting, as Alberto is about to hit me already. May not see much rain but I've already had a lot in a short time period.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Things should be interesting, as Alberto is about to hit me already. May not see much rain but I've already had a lot in a short time period.
Click to expand...

Per the models, your area should end up with a widespread soaking rainfall of 1-2". Of course, you've already had too much recently per your posts and would probably not even want to see 1".
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 272038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf
Coast west of Navarre, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday.
Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the
northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of
Alberto. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Alberto reaches the
northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall,
and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night
or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 272039
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry
mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around
the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep
convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.
Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial
wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this
advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this evening.

The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is
whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the
center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to
regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm
SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some
convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but
that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for
significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity
is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Monday.

Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward
to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on
Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low.
After that time, the system should continue moving northward between
the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that
approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models
are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to
3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The
new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track
during the first 24 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
204136_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
HRRR has this doing a little loop tonight then head northward in the morning
 
Just started spitting here which surprised me as radar showed it knocking on the door hours ago. I already have 6 inches for the week to 8 days, so this is like bonus rain coming. I'm looking for nothing but 70's the rest of the summer, lol.
 
Subtropical Storm Alberto Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

..ALBERTO STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Alberto has strengthened and the maximum
sustained winds are now 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
looks like he has hit the brakes..might sit and loop for a bit...HRRR forecasting this nicely as well. Starts to get stronger as well, per the higher res models.
 
deltadog03 said:
looks like he has hit the brakes..might sit and loop for a bit...HRRR forecasting this nicely as well. Starts to get stronger as well, per the higher res models.
Click to expand...
Not sure we should trust the high res models of they are mesoscale. They may lead us strangely. At this point, let's just see what happens. It's nowcasting time :confused:.
 
Must be doing something barocyclonically to strengthen. Cloud tops on IR continue to warm.

If not, it does not bode well for this hurricane season. Almost like we flipped the switch on again after last year.
 
Arcc said:
Must be doing something barocyclonically to strengthen. Cloud tops on IR continue to warm.

If not, it does not bode well for this hurricane season. Almost like we flipped the switch on again after last year.
Click to expand...

This almost seems like a North Atlantic storm late in the season
 
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