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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231153 CCA
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Corrected header

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Click to expand...
 
ecmf_gen_atl_2018052300.png
 
Looks like less precip getting into the Carolinas from this, with this mornings guidance. Was a lot of areas with 3-5” 7 day totals, today, mostly 1-2” amounts
 
GaWx said:
In partial deference to the models, I'm currently still near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form this week though now I'm thinking in the GOM if it occurs, which is quite high for that area in late May based on history, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms this week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS before the month is out. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance. I'm at a 10% chance for an actual TS hit anywhere along the US Gulf coast by the end of May.
Regardless, heavy rain in parts of the SE is currently the biggest threat assuming slow movement. For some areas, this system could be a blessing even if there is heavy rain (assuming no flooding in those areas).
Click to expand...

In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.
 
GaWx said:
In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Here ya go, if the GFS has anything to say about it ... a rainmaker but nothing worth stocking up on provisions over ... :cool:

2018052312_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_096.gif 2018052312_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_102.gif
Best!
Phil
 
Although most of the weather is to the east and should stay so, until the low gets over water, it's a crap shoot on direction; rain will be the issue; wind, not so much if at all ...

2018AL90_16KMGWVP_201805232100.GIF Screen Shot 2018-05-23 at 6.17.49 PM.png
 
Code Red!

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Brent said:
Code Red!

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this one should be at least a depression. The models stand at this:

GFS: Stuck on a curve right into Florida and going either through the state or up the coast and hooking into AL through SC. Low 1000mbs to ~998mb strength.

FV3: Sloppy mess consolidates fast around Florida's big bend, has the same strength as the GFS and meanders about the SE for days.

CMC: Stronger low, between 988mb and 995mb making landfall between NOLA and Panama City. Moves north slowly and gradually disintegrates.

ECMWF: Landfall around all of LA to Mobile area as a weak 1000mb to upper 990mbs low. Drifts NE or wanders for a short time.

ICON: Mid 990mbs low to upper 990mbs low drifting slowly towards TX or LA or Western Gulf.

NAM: 998mb low moving northward towards Mobile or the FL panhandle.

HWRF: Strongest model, has 979mb low, strong tropical storm, into W FL panhandle. Moves into S AL and meanders.

HMON: 998mb low moves and stalls offshore of MS/LA.

If the system forms, I've got the model info here for writing the article in the wiki, and the GFS I believe would get the sniffing the system out credit since it detected the storm initially.
 
Last edited:
Storm5 said:
Happy memorial day from the 12z Euro
e4e6f6f104b083571f6d64f25a4b9e8c.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
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You left out the N.C. rain hole over Raleigh, that we know is on the map!:eek::cool:
 
Great . Saturday is my son's 5th birthday party in Shelby Co, AL, but if it rains it out then oh well we really need the rain
 
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