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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

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Watch Out!!! LOL!!!
 
Gfs caves to Euro! On track of this slop disturbance!
 
Still quite a model spread, and although the Euro may nail it, until the low is off shore, it remains a bit of a crap shoot ...

90L_tracks_latest.png storm_90.gif AL902018mlts.gif
 
Storm5 said:
We knew that was coming lol. The GFS sucks and what's funny is it's replacement appears to suck even worse !!!
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Lol yep. Certainly not doing so well for the track. However, all models seem at least a little stronger this morning at landfall or near it except the hwrf which is weaker. However, the end path will determine which model was more accurate. If it's Mobile area or east, the cmc nails it. NOLA or west the euro gets it.

Meanwhile, the percent is up to 40/80.
 
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 241140
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Roswellian said:
Thanks for sharing. Very cool. Going to Destin for Memorial Day week and feeling quite troubled with the rain.
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You are very welcome.
Last spring I put a bunch of models in Wiki (there is a separate Tropical section for models), and that was one of them. Please utilize Wiki at your pleasure!
Here's another of my favorites: http://www.hurricanecity.com once a storm gets going (also in Wiki).
And for really good info and links (also in Wiki), I also refer extensively to:
http://flhurricane.com/
Hope you stay relatively dry this weekend!
Best!
Phil
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241726
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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NOUS42 KNHC 241536
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1135 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 25/1900Z A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/1700Z C. 26/0915Z
D. 21.0N 87.2W D. 24.0N 86.8W
E. 25/1830Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS ARE RESUMING
WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED
OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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