• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

000
WTNT31 KNHC 261743
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located by reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data near
latitude 22.8 North, longitude 85.2 West. The storm is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a slower
north-northwestward motion on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and approach the northern
Gulf Coast in the watch area late Monday or Monday night. Heavy
rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the
northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of
Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
 
With the track over land shifting west, now looks like it’s going through AL and NNW and dying over W TN, the impacts will be very minimal over the Carolinas, with that track, no hydro concerns.
 
Euro is east this run over water and land. Not as strong, but it’s quicker as well
OLD vs NEW
NEW vs OLD same time stamps DBCBC947-E9B3-4526-A8A5-29B693F4482F.png220DF8C2-E38F-48A9-9F86-08097A1B961C.png107594C8-94DD-4EAF-93AF-8490992E1BA1.png7AEDF005-7017-432A-9848-7CD26027D0BB.png
 
The 12Z Euro is the furthest east of any run at least as far back as a week ago and is thus going over SSTs that aren't as warm.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is the furthest east of any run at least as far back as a week ago and is thus going over SSTs that aren't as warm.
Click to expand...
Larry, correct me if I’m wrong please, it’s also the fastest run to the coast is Right?
 
No big changes in the 2pm advisory
f8b25ebed207ef4639b49908a98987f2.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 262051
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast
from the Aucilla River westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of the Mouth of
the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued to the west of the
Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
Discussion
000
WTNT41 KNHC 262051
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Before departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent
in visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this morning. Data from the plane indicate that the
center had reformed in that location and that the pressure had
fallen to 999 mb. The aircraft did not sample the area to the east
of the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and
surface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave
trough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form
during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in deepening
of Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. The shear is forecast to
decrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and
the system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like
structure before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little
strengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air
intrusion.

The system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours,
however, the reformation of the center today makes the initial
motion estimate more uncertain than normal. Alberto should move
northward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn
north-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as
it moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low. The
dynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but
have shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models
lie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward
1800 UTC initial position of Alberto. As a result, the NHC track is
along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise
between the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers.

The new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida
and a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 23.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
 
I will add that the 5pm update did drop all watches for Louisiana as the NHC tightens the forecast track

Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
 
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
 
Claycochaser said:
So here's a question...why wasn't Alberto retired after 1994? That was a billion dollar event with widespread impact.
Click to expand...

ForsythSnow said:
Sounds reasonable, as the WPC has us up to 5 inches the next week. Also, the east shift will bring even more rain, so up to half a foot is possible. Need it after a few days of nothing. This will probably put the local lakes way higher again, as it's already a foot above. They may even have to do more frequent and longer releases as they did a few years ago when they let it get 4 feet above.
Click to expand...

pcbjr said:
??????

View attachment 5308
Click to expand...

deltadog03 said:
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
Click to expand...

I still think the track is too far west and NNW,,,and am furious that this name was not retired.. I lost two very close friends in Montezuma, GA from 25 inches of rain ,,,Brings back very bad memories not only for me but I think for countless others who also lost loved ones..
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 262357
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 84.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general
motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical
storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well
before the arrival of the center of Alberto.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily
to the east of the center. Key West, Florida recently reported a
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by
early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and
tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. For more information, consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
Brent said:
Looks like strengthening has occurred per recon
Click to expand...
Interesting stuff going on getting into a nice pattern of upper divergence but may eat more dry air on its west and southwest side. If it can develop a real core before any dry air is ingested it might look like a real storm by tomorrow evening

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
I will admit, this is a storm that is a very tough one to call. The whole process of when, and if, does it transform into a purely tropical system. How fast can that happen.....There is a TON of dry air over the central and western gulf right now, still a ton of shear as well.
Click to expand...
You can see the center jump around a bit on the 0z nam. You are right until the system forms a real core and center its going to be a tough forecast. You have to favor east with the most intense convection on that side until it disconnects from this subtropical look

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Brent said:
70 mph surface in the VDM hmmmm

Gotta be flagged but why is it even there
Click to expand...
Surprise it's not. However, because it's only 1, it's probably not accurate. However, I feel like we can say Alberto is safely at least 45 mph next advisory, or at the highest 55 mph since there are some ~45 knot readings. I think it will be 50 though.
 
000
WTNT41 KNHC 270307 CCA
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Corrected typo in key message 3

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
97AE8C93-8E2A-4E5C-9AA4-0C424C2F973F.png 074F4C4D-0B3D-42B6-B29D-67E3A76E409E.png B263F0A2-2CE6-4D90-AA72-FB6870C7A995.png 4904BCDF-4DFB-45C2-AB2F-2D9050C2FE9F.png The always un-reliable NAM (both 3KM and 12KM) are EAST on the 00z runs.
Edit...... I mean let’s see if east trend continues with other models as well.

12km nam
 
Gfs around same area as 18z with that sharp right hook.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top