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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

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NAVGEM wants to join the party
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211230
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 
Snowfan said:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211230
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Click to expand...
20% to be on the safe side for now.
 
Regardless of the MJO, which JB is emphasizing is favorable for tropical development in the W Caribbean or GOM:

Based on the combination of longterm late May climo and there currently being nothing well organized, nobody should be surprised if no TS were to come out of this. Keep in mind that there have been only 5 TS that had a genesis during 5/21-31 in the W Car/GOM in 167 years. I'm sure the MJO was favorable in many of the years that ended up with no development when we're talking about this many years of climo. I'm still at a 33% chance of TD genesis for now (which is very high for late May) and a 5% chance of a FL TS landfall (also very high for late May). I'll adjust these up or down as we move forward. There could just as easily be no more than a very broad low that never gets past the TD stage or doesn't even get classified as a TC. Or maybe there will be a TD or even a TS that never hits FL as per many of the current model runs. Or maybe there will be a TS and it weakens to below TS strength before hitting FL. So many possibilities other than a TS hit on FL.
 
Current wind shear is a ----- . Good luck to this system , gonna be a struggle

Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
 
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