• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

I would not put any weight in the GFS solution being shown. It has consistently been backing up the supposed development and shifted it south too. It typically struggles early in the season as the EPAC starts heating up. None of the other globals like the Euro, CMC or German have anything forming and imo the GFS and FV-3 are both out to lunch on this.
 
Slight bit of difference, but the dadgum thing keeps showing up in some form or fashion ... like a pesky gnat when trying to eat outside ...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-324.gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-336.gif fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-312.gif
 
Looks like we got the ICON now too. CMC seems a bit closer as well, but not quite.
icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_57.png
 
German model has a nice system forming around the same time as the GFS. If we can get the euro to jump on board with development then we might have something.
upload_2018-5-13_2-9-7.png
 
My latest thoughts fwiw:

1. The GFS/FV3 runs early to mid last week were consistently developing it on or around 5/18-9. That's why I was then analyzing W Car geneses during 5/11-20 instead of during 5/21-31. Now the geneses seem to be centered around 5/20-2.

2. The only place I've seen GFS phantoms sticking around for a week with no forecast time slippage was, interestingly enough, in the W Car. though that was more later season than early season. That's why I think there is a good side to mentioning TC geneses way out in time. We can look back.

3. Regarding the GFS runs that have had cat 2+ strength, don't forget that the GFS on numerous runs had Irma near or I think even below 900 mbs in some cases between Cuba and S FL. Those runs turned out to be close to 30 mb too strong.

4. I continue to think there is a low % as opposed to zero % threat to FL in late May from a W Car genesis though not of the crazy strengths many GFS runs have been showing. I think any FL storm would very likely be no stronger than TS. This takes into account both climo and the tendency of the GFS to overstrengthen last season.
 
accu35 said:
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
I know it's the FV3, but is that a 99L? Lol!! 90hrs out
Click to expand...

Good catch as this is a system that already exists to the south and will likely turn out to be a very nice rainmaker for parts of the SE US. This has a decent chance to become a STD or possibly a STS. There is even a chance for it to be one a TD and a slight chance for TS status to be reached though SSTs in the N Gulf are not very warm and may not support a TC.
To clarify to the readers, this has nothing to do with the GFS/FV3 modeled storm for later.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
My latest thoughts fwiw:

1. The GFS/FV3 runs early to mid last week were consistently developing it on or around 5/18-9. That's why I was then analyzing W Car geneses during 5/11-20 instead of during 5/21-31. Now the geneses seem to be centered around 5/20-2.

2. The only place I've seen GFS phantoms sticking around for a week with no forecast time slippage was, interestingly enough, in the W Car. though that was more later season than early season. That's why I think there is a good side to mentioning TC geneses way out in time. We can look back.

3. Regarding the GFS runs that have had cat 2+ strength, don't forget that the GFS on numerous runs had Irma near or I think even below 900 mbs in some cases between Cuba and S FL. Those runs turned out to be close to 30 mb too strong.

4. I continue to think there is a low % as opposed to zero % threat to FL in late May from a W Car genesis though not of the crazy strengths many GFS runs have been showing. I think any FL storm would very likely be no stronger than TS. This takes into account both climo and the tendency of the GFS to overstrengthen last season.
Click to expand...
With that, Larry, I feel comfortable taking a Sunday afternoon nap ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Are we still allowed to toss the 18Z GFS (and for that matter the 18Z from new FV3 as well)?
Click to expand...

Always for the 18Z run of ANY model on any day. That's one of the biggest benefits of being a southernwx member. I may be mistaken, but I do believe that southernwx is the ONLY wx BB that includes for no charge the option of any member tossing the 18Z anytime that member chooses to do so. I think that's why they proudly have "we toss the 18Z" on one of their tshirts. In case anyone thinks American includes anything like that as part of their membership, think again. They never offered that to me. :( ;)
 
Last edited:
Phil, thank goodness you were able to toss the 18Z. The 0Z GFS has totally backed off of an open W Caribbean genesis with a further delay and genesis now further west close to C America. lol Oh GFS, how we love you for W Car TC genesis accuracy....not! lol
 
The GFS has been crazy in that it had been showing a cat 2 H (bordering on cat 3 in some cases) going into FL on run after run. Also, the progged genesis date has been slipping again. It was originally just 4-5 days from now in the W Caribbean (5/18-19).

So, originally it was a tight genesis 5/18-9 and now on today's 6Z it is only a broad low with genesis on 5/24 with only a much more believable 1000 mb low hitting FL instead of a 970 mb cat 2 H. Is that even the same thing? Even if it is, that's a massive change in strength and timing. And we still don't know if there will be a May W Caribbean TC at all yet.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The GFS has been crazy in that it had been showing a cat 2 H (bordering on cat 3 in some cases) going into FL on run after run. Also, the progged genesis date has been slipping again. It was originally just 4-5 days from now in the W Caribbean (5/18-19).

So, originally it was a tight genesis 5/18-9 and now on today's 6Z it is only a broad low with genesis on 5/24 with only a much more believable 1000 mb low hitting FL instead of a 970 mb cat 2 H. Is that even the same thing? Even if it is, that's a massive change in strength and timing. And we still don't know if there will be a May W Caribbean TC at all yet.
Click to expand...
Thats what fun tracking is for :)
 
For the 1st time in many days, the latest GFS (12Z) has no TS+ form in or near the W Caribbean/Central America in its entire run. All it has is a weak low there that at most is a TD and it moves to near FL 5/27-9 as only a weak (1005 mb) low.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top