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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

Brent said:
18z GFS hurricane for S FL then New Orleans Memorial Day weekend

Well its consistent with something :confused:
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Consistent with inconsistency .. here, then gone, then back ... :confused:
Lord I hope we're not living this until October ... o_O
 
Everyone will be better off ignoring the GFS output and focusing more on the Euro and CMC combo for TC genesis. I find when both the euro and cmc agree on a storm developing, consistently, and inside 192 hours it usually has a good chance of forming. GFS and FV3 has major convective feedback issues which continues to gives these outputs not to mention they are not ocean coupled either.

Having said that, the 22-24th seems to be the timeframe to start watching. The German model just came in with some good development indications. The NAVGEM also agrees with this general timeframe.
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0z Euro has what appears to be a tropical storm near Tampa at 240 hrs

Memorial Day weekend timeframe again

That intensity would make much more sense for early season
 
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There is now near unanimous agreement in the models that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is clearly at risk for a TS.
 
GaWx said:
There is now near unanimous agreement in the models that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is clearly at risk for a TS.
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Thanks for the update. Larry!
To add a bit of visual ...

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GaWx said:
There is now near unanimous agreement in the models that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27). Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is clearly at risk for a TS.
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Yeah, the euro and CMC coming on board makes it more likely for a system to form due to agreement. However, seems the FV3 is the worst at the moment, as it has a cat 4 sitting off the coast of LA, which I believe to be next to impossible.
 
Thanks, Phil. That 6Z FV3 run that @pcbjr just posted has a major (cat 3) H in late May in the N GOM, which isn't even all that warm. I recommend folks ignore this strength as it is so far from realistic.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, the euro and CMC coming on board makes it more likely for a system to form due to agreement. However, seems the FV3 is the worst at the moment, as it has a cat 4 sitting off the coast of LA, which I believe to be next to impossible.
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Lol we were both posting about the crazy 6Z FV3 at about the same time. Yeah, it is nuts!
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Phil. That 6Z FV3 run that @pcbjr just posted has a major (cat 3) H in late May in the N GOM, which isn't even all that warm. I recommend folks ignore this strength as it is so far from realistic.
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Didn't mean to suggest an endorsement, but since it's out there ... :confused:
 
GaWx said:
I know and it isn't bad to post it so we can later look back at how nutty the model is.
How could the FV3 even be doing that with the N GOM not even all that warm? It doesn't make any sense.
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So far, in my most humble opinion, that model hasn't made much sense at all from the day it went public; it's still in an experimental stage and from what I can tell "blends" the GFS into its output, which would explain a lot; that circles back to a discussion a few days ago about its resolution. Bottom line - it's out there and probably worth a look, but it's not what this humble soul is relying on ...
 
History since 1851 of W Caribbean/GOM geneses during 5/21-31: 5 trop. storms but no hurricanes

1) 5/30/2008's TS Arthur: strongest 40 knots/1004 mb when it hit Belize 5/31
2) 5/28/1959's TS Arlene: strongest 50 knots/1000 mb when 100 miles S of LA 5/30; hit LA 5/30 with 40 knot max; the only GOM genesis of these 5
3) 5/25/1953's TS Alice: hit W Cuba 5/31 with 50 knot max; strongest 60 knots/997 mb when in NE GOM 6/5; hit FL panhandle 6/6 with 40 knot max
4) 5/27/1890's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SE Gulf on 5/29; falls aparts in open SE Gulf
5) 5/29/1865's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SW Caribbean, the only position recorded

In summary, the highest recorded wind max on land of these was a 50 knot hit on W Cuba. The highest on the US/Belize was 40 knots. The highest in any point of the track of these 5 was 60 knots (high end TS). Based on this, IF there is going to be a TC hit anywhere on land, I have to favor no stronger than a TS.

# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses since 1851

May 1-10: 2
May 11-20: 4
May 21-31: 5
June 1-10: 16
June 11-20: 26

Edit: Since this post was made, I've found out about a H that apparently hit FL in late May of 1863 but still isn't in the official records. This one apparently formed within 5/21-31.
 
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Probably, hopefully, not a "namer", but there sure is a bunch of ongoing model consensus for some tropical wet in the mid-term ...

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The FV3 “upgraded” GFS looks far worse so far this season than the one it replaces. In four runs it has gone from a category 4 into Texas, a cat 4 Louisiana hit, a run that doesn’t even develop and now the 18z run where the low heads into the GOM, gets forced west then wsw into the BOC for a landfall in Mexico. This inconsistency, not to mention the absurd intensity it shows on multiple runs, is pitiful.

My greatest concern is during hurricane season when social media posters will plaster images of the FV3 everywhere and cause undue concern. It was bad enough last year with the upgraded gfs, this year will be far worse I’m afraid.

Last year the Euro, CMC and German combo were very reliable for TC genesis and track with the Euro leading the way. I wouldn’t bother looking at the FV3 unless you need a good laugh; it’s clueless and trash for TC intensity and genesis.
 
snowlover91 said:
The FV3 “upgraded” GFS looks far worse so far this season than the one it replaces. In four runs it has gone from a category 4 into Texas, a cat 4 Louisiana hit, a run that doesn’t even develop and now the 18z run where the low heads into the GOM, gets forced west then wsw into the BOC for a landfall in Mexico. This inconsistency, not to mention the absurd intensity it shows on multiple runs, is pitiful.

My greatest concern is during hurricane season when social media posters will plaster images of the FV3 everywhere and cause undue concern. It was bad enough last year with the upgraded gfs, this year will be far worse I’m afraid.

Last year the Euro, CMC and German combo were very reliable for TC genesis and track with the Euro leading the way. I wouldn’t bother looking at the FV3 unless you need a good laugh; it’s clueless and trash for TC intensity and genesis.
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Last year the CMC stepped up quite a bit and they euro stepped down, often missing storm formation entirely. I wouldn't put the Euro too high since its not been its best lately. However because everything is agreeing on a strong tropical low, we could see something. The FV3 is going to have to be watched throughout the season just to see how it reacts to different areas of the Atlantic. I'm sure it's going to be bad unless they correct it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Last year the CMC stepped up quite a bit and they euro stepped down, often missing storm formation entirely. I wouldn't put the Euro too high since its not been its best lately. However because everything is agreeing on a strong tropical low, we could see something. The FV3 is going to have to be watched throughout the season just to see how it reacts to different areas of the Atlantic. I'm sure it's going to be bad unless they correct it.
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The CMC was probably the only model that improved from the upgrades last year. I feel like the Euro and GFS both became a bit worse with TC formation, intensity and track. The Euro was by far the most accurate model last year with TC track, beating every other model and even the NHC forecast in the 3 and 5 day verification scores. Maybe if we do actually get a system to form the new FV3 will be better then... but for now it’s just not doing well at all. It also seems to want to spin up every thunderstorm complex into a strong low pressure or tropical system and not being ocean coupled is a huge problem too. They need to ocean couple the GFS/FV3 and fix the feedback issues, maybe over time they will tweak that for the FV3 but early indications are not good.

Btw here are the EPS members. Quite a few develop it and a few get it up to minimal hurricane status.
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I have yet to be in the likely to develop camp nor in the hurricane camp (both based on climo), but I did go into the "increasing threat of a TS to FL" camp yesterday when I noted the near unanimous ageement of the models for a tropical low to form in the NW Caribbean near day 7 (5/24). If anything, today that TS threat has fallen back some but there still is a low (more than minute) chance imo. I'm near 5% for a FL TS hit currently. Weak model progs along with climo and knowing that the Gulf has recently not been all that warm are keeping it down as there's a much greater chance that there will either be something weaker than TS, maybe even nothing organized, or maybe even a miss of FL.

Climo to keep in mind: There have been only 5 TS and no H on record to form in the W. Car. or GOM during 5/21-31 since 1851. So, that's only 5 in 167 years or 1 in 33 chance/3% of there even being a genesis. Only 1 of those 5 hit FL. So, only 1 in 167 years had a FL TS hit or well under 1%. So, even going with a 5% chance of a FL hit in 2018 in deference to the model consensus of a threat of something is WAY, WAY above the longterm climo based chance.

The 5 W Car/GOM 5/21-31 geneses on record since 1851:

- 5/30/2008
- 5/28/1959: hit LA at 40 knots
- 5/25/1953: hit FL at 40 knots
- 5/27/1890
- 5/29/1865

Edit: In deference to this model agreement, I'm currently near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form next week either in the W Car. or in the GOM, which is quite high in that area for late May, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms next week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance.
 
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Ok, CMC, ICON and EURO has a storm in the gulf of some sort. Something that needs to be watch this upcoming week
 
Can't believe we are not talking about these model runs, gfs is the only one that has a storm on the east coast of Florida .Rest of the models has it in the gulf, maybe just a Tropical Storm but something to watch very closely this week as it forms.
 
Looks like a hybrid slop storm, if anything. The moisture influx and heavy rains , will be the highlight late week and into the holiday weekend.
 
The earliest on record TS to hit the US Gulf coast W of FL is 5/30's Arlene, which hit LA with 45 mph winds/1000 mb in 1959. So, this has a chance to make history.
 
GaWx said:
The earliest on record TS to hit the US Gulf coast W of FL is 5/30's Arlene, which hit LA with 45 mph winds/1000 mb in 1959. So, this has a chance to make history.
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Rain will be the big story I imagine
 
Brent said:
Euro just stalls it along the TX/LA border region for days through the end of the run talk about flooding
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Yeah, looks like one of those slow moving, wondering lows that wants to flood everyone lol.
 
Yes, the 12z euro run would be really bad as it drops isolated pockets of 20+ inches of rain across Louisiana and widespread 10-15” amounts. It stalls the system right along the coast for at least 5 days as it gets trapped in weak steering currents. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
 
0z Euro again doing the very slow motion towards Texas by day 10... rain gets pretty far west towards me :eek:
 
Brent said:
0z Euro again doing the very slow motion towards Texas by day 10... rain gets pretty far west towards me :eek:
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Whatever comes of this will cause some major flooding.
 
James posted this on twitter. I'm taking my 10 yr old daughter kayaking Silver Springs and other places around Ocala May 25-28th. Maybe I should just reschedule it. :(



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