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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231153 CCA
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Corrected header

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ecmf_gen_atl_2018052300.png
 
Looks like less precip getting into the Carolinas from this, with this mornings guidance. Was a lot of areas with 3-5” 7 day totals, today, mostly 1-2” amounts
 
GaWx said:
In partial deference to the models, I'm currently still near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form this week though now I'm thinking in the GOM if it occurs, which is quite high for that area in late May based on history, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms this week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS before the month is out. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance. I'm at a 10% chance for an actual TS hit anywhere along the US Gulf coast by the end of May.
Regardless, heavy rain in parts of the SE is currently the biggest threat assuming slow movement. For some areas, this system could be a blessing even if there is heavy rain (assuming no flooding in those areas).
Click to expand...

In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like less precip getting into the Carolinas from this, with this mornings guidance. Was a lot of areas with 3-5” 7 day totals, today, mostly 1-2” amounts
Click to expand...
The SD and RC rain shield is flexing it's muscles
 
GaWx said:
In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Here ya go, if the GFS has anything to say about it ... a rainmaker but nothing worth stocking up on provisions over ... :cool:

2018052312_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_096.gif 2018052312_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_102.gif
Best!
Phil
 
Although most of the weather is to the east and should stay so, until the low gets over water, it's a crap shoot on direction; rain will be the issue; wind, not so much if at all ...

2018AL90_16KMGWVP_201805232100.GIF Screen Shot 2018-05-23 at 6.17.49 PM.png
 
Code Red!

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Brent said:
Code Red!

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this one should be at least a depression. The models stand at this:

GFS: Stuck on a curve right into Florida and going either through the state or up the coast and hooking into AL through SC. Low 1000mbs to ~998mb strength.

FV3: Sloppy mess consolidates fast around Florida's big bend, has the same strength as the GFS and meanders about the SE for days.

CMC: Stronger low, between 988mb and 995mb making landfall between NOLA and Panama City. Moves north slowly and gradually disintegrates.

ECMWF: Landfall around all of LA to Mobile area as a weak 1000mb to upper 990mbs low. Drifts NE or wanders for a short time.

ICON: Mid 990mbs low to upper 990mbs low drifting slowly towards TX or LA or Western Gulf.

NAM: 998mb low moving northward towards Mobile or the FL panhandle.

HWRF: Strongest model, has 979mb low, strong tropical storm, into W FL panhandle. Moves into S AL and meanders.

HMON: 998mb low moves and stalls offshore of MS/LA.

If the system forms, I've got the model info here for writing the article in the wiki, and the GFS I believe would get the sniffing the system out credit since it detected the storm initially.
 
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Storm5 said:
Happy memorial day from the 12z Euro
e4e6f6f104b083571f6d64f25a4b9e8c.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327VPP using Tapatalk
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You left out the N.C. rain hole over Raleigh, that we know is on the map!:eek::cool:
 
Great . Saturday is my son's 5th birthday party in Shelby Co, AL, but if it rains it out then oh well we really need the rain
 
Gfs caves to Euro! On track of this slop disturbance!
 
Still quite a model spread, and although the Euro may nail it, until the low is off shore, it remains a bit of a crap shoot ...

90L_tracks_latest.png storm_90.gif AL902018mlts.gif
 
Storm5 said:
We knew that was coming lol. The GFS sucks and what's funny is it's replacement appears to suck even worse !!!
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Lol yep. Certainly not doing so well for the track. However, all models seem at least a little stronger this morning at landfall or near it except the hwrf which is weaker. However, the end path will determine which model was more accurate. If it's Mobile area or east, the cmc nails it. NOLA or west the euro gets it.

Meanwhile, the percent is up to 40/80.
 
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 241140
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Roswellian said:
Thanks for sharing. Very cool. Going to Destin for Memorial Day week and feeling quite troubled with the rain.
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You are very welcome.
Last spring I put a bunch of models in Wiki (there is a separate Tropical section for models), and that was one of them. Please utilize Wiki at your pleasure!
Here's another of my favorites: http://www.hurricanecity.com once a storm gets going (also in Wiki).
And for really good info and links (also in Wiki), I also refer extensively to:
http://flhurricane.com/
Hope you stay relatively dry this weekend!
Best!
Phil
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241726
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
NOUS42 KNHC 241536
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1135 AM EDT THU 24 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MAY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 25/1900Z A. 26/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/1700Z C. 26/0915Z
D. 21.0N 87.2W D. 24.0N 86.8W
E. 25/1830Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/1100Z TO 26/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS ARE RESUMING
WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED
OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
Click to expand...
 
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