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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

Going waayyyy out on a limb here, but until we have a couple runs and a bit more data, the "landfall" spot is still up for grabs; relying on a 1st advisory is not good poker; one thing's for certain though, "landfall" is not the key -- it's east and north-east of there that will get the worst weather.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Let's try not to spam up the thread with recon info. Only post it once if there is something significant.
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The efforts are appreciated but I agree with this because too many of these will clog up the thread with data that many likely aren't knowledgeable enough about to decipher. If this were almost exclusively a tropical wx bb with several threads on each storm and if there were a dedicated thread to recon obs, that would be a totally different story. But we have only one Alberto thread.

However, this brings up a question: Do we want to have multiple Alberto threads now, including one for general discussion, one for just recon, one for just models, a later one for obs if there's landfall, etc?
 
GaWx said:
The efforts are appreciated but I agree with this because too many of these will clog up the thread with data that many likely aren't knowledgeable enough about to decipher. If this were almost exclusively a tropical wx bb with several threads on each storm and if there were a dedicated thread to recon obs, that would be a totally different story. But we have only one Alberto thread.

However, this brings up a question: Do we want to have multiple Alberto threads now, including one for general discussion, one for just recon, one for just models, a later one for obs if there's landfall, etc?
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I think we should stick to 1 for pre landfall, and one for obs and impacts. For now, it's mixed with the wet period thread, but could be split if it's best.
 
Storm5 said:
I personally like seeing the recon data . Maybe we can start recon obs thread

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Agreed. I don't know what the issue is as you have to expand it to see it all, other wise it's the same size as the post I'm making.
 
Arcc said:
Agreed. I don't know what the issue is as you have to expand it to see it all, other wise it's the same size as the post I'm making.
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Yes but there could be dozens of these type posts covering just one flight. If that many are going to be posted, I think a separate recon thread would be best. Or limit it to just a vortex data message, which would often mean just one per flight. Example:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml


000
URNT12 KNHC 252028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 25/19:50:50Z
B. 18 deg 46 min N
086 deg 17 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. 22 kt
E. 043 deg 105 nm
F. 244 deg 14 kt
G. 043 deg 105 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 746 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0101A ALBERTO OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 23 KT 222 / 56 NM 20:11:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 200 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 
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GaWx said:
Yes but there could be dozens of these type posts covering just one flight. If that many are going to be posted, I think a separate recon thread would be best. Or limit it to just a vortex report.
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If the thread is fast flowing I could understand, but if we are in the frame of a few posts an hour in the thread, why not have the data? To me it's much easier to keep it in the same thread and scroll by the posts than have to keep up with two or three threads on the same topic.
 
Arcc said:
If the thread is fast flowing I could understand, but if we are in the frame of a few posts an hour in the thread, why not have the data? To me it's much easier to keep it in the same thread and scroll by the posts than have to keep up with two or three threads on the same topic.
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Agree, but please folks, don't post quadruplicates of the exact same thing ... it's Friday afternoon and the eyes and brain get a bit glazed from the week already ... o_O

But for those with 20/20 and no headache (LOL) ... Here's 2 more really good links to follow for this (or any) tropical storm ...

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2018&storm=1

PS - These are also in our little Wiki ...
 
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Arcc said:
If the thread is fast flowing I could understand, but if we are in the frame of a few posts an hour in the thread, why not have the data? To me it's much easier to keep it in the same thread and scroll by the posts than have to keep up with two or three threads on the same topic.
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Over at another BB that I follow, they posted 25 recon obs posts before the vortex report over just a couple of hours but it is all contained in a dedicated recon obs thread. If that many were to be posted here, I'd think a dedicated thread would be better. If only a few, maybe not. That BB actually has two dedicated recon threads, recon obs and recon discussion, and 5 Alberto threads overall. But it is a much busier BB for tropical because it is almost purely tropical and more than a regional BB.

Edit: Remember, folks, that some people like to look back at these threads.
 
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While we were discussing recon info, advisory 2 came out and the cone is east a bit. Now just a bit west of mobile and up a bit east of the MS AL border.
152536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
While we were discussing recon info, advisory 2 came out and the cone is east a bit. Now just a bit west of mobile and up a bit east of the MS AL border.
152536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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Also in our little Wiki, but a very good tool to judge trends ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/ and to study later ...
You can watch all of the advisories and see if, how and where the cone shifts.

For this particular little storm ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/ALBERTO_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
 
ATLANTA

For our area, Alberto will bring heavy rainfall and the potential
for flooding. Although winds should not be a major issue with
Alberto, with already wet soils it will be relatively easy for
trees to fall. Current QPF associated with Alberto is about 3-6
inches with locally higher amounts possible, especially in
northeast GA and east central GA. Flash flooding will also become
a problem as well as river flooding. With the above-normal
rainfall that most areas have seen over the past few days, soils
are already saturated and additional precip would be expected to
cause problems. Make sure to be aware of any forecast
changes/watches/warnings, as well as updates from NHC, as there is
still uncertainty within the track of Alberto. The need for any
flood-related watches will continue to be monitored.
 
This has the potential to be another repeat of 1994 as far as rainfall. Alberto again...
Tropical Storm Alberto was the costliest storm of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the first named storm of the season. It hit Florida across the Southeast United States in July, causing a massive flooding disaster while stalling over Georgia and Alabama. Alberto caused $1.03 billion in damage (1994 USD)[1] and 32 deaths.

Still have no answer as to why this name was not retired???
 
BPATL said:
ATLANTA

For our area, Alberto will bring heavy rainfall and the potential
for flooding. Although winds should not be a major issue with
Alberto, with already wet soils it will be relatively easy for
trees to fall. Current QPF associated with Alberto is about 3-6
inches with locally higher amounts possible, especially in
northeast GA and east central GA. Flash flooding will also become
a problem as well as river flooding. With the above-normal
rainfall that most areas have seen over the past few days, soils
are already saturated and additional precip would be expected to
cause problems. Make sure to be aware of any forecast
changes/watches/warnings, as well as updates from NHC, as there is
still uncertainty within the track of Alberto. The need for any
flood-related watches will continue to be monitored.
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Sounds reasonable, as the WPC has us up to 5 inches the next week. Also, the east shift will bring even more rain, so up to half a foot is possible. Need it after a few days of nothing. This will probably put the local lakes way higher again, as it's already a foot above. They may even have to do more frequent and longer releases as they did a few years ago when they let it get 4 feet above.
 
Looks like remnants going right over MBY, on about Wednesday, acording to the GFS! That’ll be good over the 1-2” I get between now and then!
 
Claycochaser said:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/most-surprising-hurricanes-names-not-get-retired

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...don-alberto-1994-hurricane-season-not-retired

Couple interesting links concerning the retirement issue.
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Yeah, they should have retire the name. I was under it, and it was worthy of a nice long retirement, lol. The air was so filled with water you had trouble breathing outside. It's one of my top ten weather phenomena experienced. If this thing cuts off, watch out :)
 
Picked up 1.75” last night! Gonna be a long 7 days or so. Getting concerned for flooding issues in AL,GA, and Carolinas
 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 261146
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today,
followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Alberto is expected to move near the western
tip of Cuba today, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Saturday night through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast
in the watch area Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
buoy is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the United States watch area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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deltadog03 said:
Alberto looks awful right now. I know models strengthen this but I don’t know how much I buy into that right now. Plus that weird westerly movement in the northern gulf
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Speaks volumes, and whatever happens, given current conditions and models, no one should be focused on the point of "landfall" ...

tgwind24.gif


windfield.gif

MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL1_storm_info_1280x720.jpg
 
I agree I think it’s best shot at strengthening is to move NE and kind of “hide” in the eastern GOM. We shall see for sure, but I would say a weaker eastern solution is possible
 
These subtle changes in track are nothing unexpected . The weaker it stays the further east it will end up . But with that said there are limitations as to how far east and west it can go .

Mobile -Destin looks to be the area



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