• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Stock Market




This describes the rock and hard place situation the Fed is in and warns that they really can't Volcker-it today without an extremely deep recession occurring (edit: and the fact of the matter is that this is likely exactly what's needed to return prices outside of oil to what they were).

I do think they'd be willing to go a bit further than they have, but it's doubtful they stand aside completely. I would say credit spreads at 800-1000 or maybe HYG at 70 would get them to think.

The reality is, 2018 was likely the last shot to get to a respectable FFR (not just 2.5-3) without an absolute ton of pain.

And that shot was not taken.
 
To add to everything that's going on .....
d50aba9f76e7907d506bdb904dcedba2.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The 10yr at 2.8% has already priced in a Fed Funds rate of 2.5%. Mort rates are in the mid 5’s. I don’t think there is any way the Fed will be able to raise rates much past 2.5% before our economy and market craters. Will be interesting to see how bonds react…yields have been straight vertical for weeks now.
 
I had an unhealthy amount of AMD and FB from yesterday which is helping. ?
 
Surprised the print wasn't worse.

For all the hullabaloo about "rigging", I would think it'd be tough to hide energy inflation.

What's more interesting is that CPI stripped of food and inflation actually missed to the downside. That possibly sets up this interesting theory to actually come true potentially (read the thread):




April CPI was just so darn bad last year that unless things get worse overall, this morning's print was "probably" the peak. Finally.
 
Surprised the print wasn't worse.

For all the hullabaloo about "rigging", I would think it'd be tough to hide energy inflation.

What's more interesting is that CPI stripped of food and inflation actually missed to the downside. That possibly sets up this interesting theory to actually come true potentially (read the thread):




April CPI was just so darn bad last year that unless things get worse overall, this morning's print was "probably" the peak. Finally.

Yep it would take a massive increase this month to show a number over 8.5 next month. With gas prices down in April we should see a lower number in April... my guess is it'll be back down in the 7's.
 
AMD is about to go on the do not trade list. Pathetic action…holding for now but have a tight stop. Big red flag that this is underperforming the chip names.

EB7EB148-F033-45D7-9735-C2005284E6AF.png
 
Put to call ratio has been skewed bearish all morning. ?
 
I notice inflation every time I go to the grocery store or to restaurants. It’s getting hard to get fast food under $10, which is insane to me.
We talk food an gas. Rent is the macdaddy for those caught up in that cycle. Up to as much as 40% past 15 months.

Big shooting NY Subway, breaking news fyi.
 
Inflation parabolic and we out here buying dips ?‍♂️


96878E0B-F7A9-4626-9B11-189DDFC13998.png
 
Semis are so weak…going to be very difficult for tech to go up with semis this weak.

If NVDA pushes down through $217 it’s going to get ugly for a lot of tech.

71B08F4E-5767-4EE1-9A0B-78A27BC52D13.png
 
Semis are so weak…going to be very difficult for tech to go up with semis this weak.

If NVDA pushes down through $217 it’s going to get ugly for a lot of tech.

View attachment 117151
Probably an idiot…added NVDA at $219. Market either holds these gains or completely rolls over.
 
Back
Top