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Misc Stock Market

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Q’s has .5 fib level of $344 and .618 of $338. There is no bid right now so not sure how these are going to hold up.
 
Crude oil is now below what it was at the beginning of the war, IIRC. Or at least about the same.
 
What a boring day . Chop city into fed data tomorrow . Big move coming tomorrow one day . At least it won't be uneventful


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This VIX move tells me that many are hedging up to their eyeballs out of fear for tomorrow more than anything.

May be setting up for a vol crush post event, which is what I was thinking was going to happen a couple times at data/FOMC points but didn't because many derisked into those points, but I ultimately still think that my thought that tomorrow is going to be a sh--show is going to be correct.

Will sell SARK if we do gap down tomorrow since I'm going out of town to see my grandma as I can remember what happened in May last year after that sh--show involving CPI. That was pretty much the breaking point.

Would not be surprised if it became a mistake to do so though considering what happened on the last short OPEX week this year in January.
 
Been no attempt to fill either of those big gap downs on the Q’s. Dip buyers have given up or they are broke…?‍♂️

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10yr straight vertical. It hit 3.2% in fall of 2018, the market was in total free fall and Fed stepped in and announced no more rate hikes and markets ripped higher. Fed can’t do that now…we screwed.

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Everyone knows that this CPI print will be bad...but the VIX move tells me hedging anyway out of fear of the print (maybe China concerns too?). This market is going to be so hedged that if tomorrow dumps it's going to be straight up panic selling. Maybe tomorrow is the 90+ DVOL day on the NYSE that many have sought for as a marker for whatever reason since demand fears are hammering oil.

There's going to be a vol crush from this. It's just going to be a matter of does it happen tomorrow, or does it happen after a very large down day across the board (and I suppose it could also just wait until after OPEX if this week is a repeat of the short week during January OPEX, but a repeat would surprise me).
 
Storm5 said:
You think that high ?


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Gopack42 said:
No way they release double digit numbers. They'll treat it like election results and manipulate it how they see fit.
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Well it’s year over year so March 2021 was 2.6%. So another 8% on top of that. April 2021 is when CPI hit almost 5%…so when Aprils is released in May that will be telling.
 
Storm5 said:
You think that high ?


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Plus, Psaki already trying to soften the blow with her “extraordinary elevated” comment today. Everyone expects that already and she’s so it must be really bad.
 
KyloG said:
Well it’s year over year so March 2021 was 2.6%. So another 8% on top of that. April 2021 is when CPI hit almost 5%…so when Aprils is released in May that will be telling.
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I would think the yoy numbers go down starting with April if there was a 2.6 to 5 increase last year. Starting to go against a higher base number. Not saying it'll be a good number, but something like 8.5 down to 8.2.
 
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