Best guess is that this week is rally mode. Maybe they're making it too obvious now (like, I thought today was going to be green but when I heard +590 on the Dow just after 10, I was like...what) but I think SPX is gonna test 3950+ again this week with the market actually open. It did it in futures, which means that it will generally eventually get there during the cash session.
If you're going to see a -8 to -10% happen, that door will open during quad-witching this month, I think. If not, I wonder if we're going to end up having a similar story for multiple months.