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Misc Stock Market

I now think that odds highly favor a 5/12/21 or 2/10/22 on Tuesday when CPI comes out next week.

Dadgumit man. That's going to suck at least temporarily.

Anyone trying to buy bonds right now is a wee bit too early. The time to get cute is going to be next week when the bond market is a very likely dumpster fire after that CPI report. After that date, I'd imagine that at the very least, 2.66ish is getting backtested on 10s and I wouldn't be surprised if it was from 3 if treasuries do go no bid like those days.

But they are not my thing.
 
KyloG said:
$PLTR sweeps right before close...trader broke it up into smaller trades. Roughly $700k worth of next years $22 calls. That's interesting...I added shares on that. Stock is at $13.

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Add a lot more $PLTR today in the $12.70's....showing some nice strength. If it can close over $13 today or into early next week it could test $14.3 again.

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KyloG said:
The $3165 call was $70...which means 1 call is actually 100 shares. So that's 100 x $70 which equals $7000. So that's a big risk, atleast for me.
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I gotcha. Makes sense now. So that premium was right.....which is why my breakeven was so high. If anyone has an easy example of a cheap call or put and could walk me through it, shoot me a PM. I appreciate you guys.
 
DadOfJax said:
I gotcha. Makes sense now. So that premium was right.....which is why my breakeven was so high. If anyone has an easy example of a cheap call or put and could walk me through it, shoot me a PM. I appreciate you guys.
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I like PLTR. They are cyber security play. They are at $13....earnings I think is 5/10. You could buy the $13.50 calls for $1 or the $14's for 80 cents. So 1 call would cost you a $100 for the $13.50's and or $80 for the $14's. Worst case you lose $100 or $80.
 
Got stopped out of $NCLH yesterday but added it back today at $19.75. Stop at $19.47 now.

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Shrek dongs
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KyloG said:
I like PLTR. They are cyber security play. They are at $13....earnings I think is 5/10. You could buy the $13.50 calls for $1 or the $14's for 80 cents. So 1 call would cost you a $100 for the $13.50's and or $80 for the $14's. Worst case you lose $100 or $80.
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What is your breakeven on the 13.50 calls?
 
when tech rips you’re really going to see some shrek dongs like you’ve never seen before E7915860-2189-40F8-A390-E90A4F13E72E.jpeg
 
Hedged both ways next week with Amazon 100 points either side of current price .

Also added 3k bucks worth of twitter put spreads three weeks out. Huge gap still on the daily

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Debating just how much risk I want to carry over the weekend. Right now it feels like yields are never going to stop going up and Q’s will never stop going down.

If Q’s break $348 I may just wipe the slate clean….

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Sadly, this fade makes sense.

The liars today were the Dow, SPX, and VIX, heck the Nasdaq VIX too which is VXN (for most of the day at least for the latter two after the flush at the open). All four were lying.

SPX closes even around 4500 and it's in a decent position after double bottoming at 4450, yet the Nasdaq behemoths are positioned for continuation downward. Lately when that's been the deal, the behemoths win, and that's likely to be what happens on Tuesday.

Now I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Nasdaq sees a good day on Monday but it's likely to be fake, it'll likely just be derisking by the bears that had a very, very strong win this week (as if they didn't bring it after Monday, SPX was apparently positioned to where it could go back to its record). They'll re-short after derisking and we'll likely see a 2%+ down day on Tuesday.

Bonds will probably bounce after Tuesday next week even though they shouldn't, at least imo.
 
I'm actually dead serious when I'm saying that I think bonds bounce soon.

The problem is, it's likely going to happen after 10s hit 3% in a car crash caliber day on Tuesday next week in both stocks and bonds, outside of maybe energy stocks.

People talking about bidding bonds probably aren't wrong, they've just been early. Bounce comes after a big down day across the board on Tuesday next week.

This is not a guy you want on your side in the short term at least if you want to see the rates market continue to crash and implode:




The only issue here is I'm not alone with this opinion, but I'll quantify it with this. What may happen is we may hit 3, then backtest the breakout around 2.66 and then bounce, if we do, then it's likely that a lot of stuff has to reprice for a 2nd time this year, because you can then make a case for it being very different this time, as you can make a case for making highs not seen post-financial crisis.

As for stocks...Monday probably gaps down and reverses just because of derisking ahead of CPI (everyone knows CPI is going to be bad, but the pattern lately has been to derisk into important moments).
 
WTI Crude is currently down about 3% because of China's nonsensical policy.

I really wish it was because of a different reason. But it's not.
 
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