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Misc Stock Market

We may very well see the kind of move that I don’t love at all today.

Most of the move by stocks was the positive Russia headline burning the hedges that were put on.

However, compared to Thursday, bonds aren’t as much of a mess as they were that day. That day wasn’t about TNX, it was about the curve really flattening. It was a mess of a day.
 
Rain Cold said:
Prominent H&S: Negative
Prominent Double Top: Negative
S&P Rejection at 200 DMA: Negative
CPI Surprise Upside: Negative
PPI Surprise Upside: Negative
Fed Speakers Bearish: Negative
Fed to hike by 50 bps in March: Negative
GG/Reddit Index: Bearish

Outlooks for stocks: Bullish
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You're thinking too hard. ?? ???
 
Brought this up last week...SPY/S&P doesn't like to go below the 50wma. It tagged it again yesterday and like a dummy I was scared Putin was about to start a world war so I sat on my hands. Lesson learned.

Back in last 2018 the markets went full pout mode about rate hikes and Powell caved and actually cut rates...but inflation wasn't a problem then. Then we had the covid crash. But each time the market just rips furiously higher and I suspect thats what is going to happen this time.

That was so dumb yesterday...

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Storm5 said:
Fed minutes tomorrow will be a 1-2 percent drop like last time I'm buying spy puts before the bell


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I really hope we get a 1-2% dip tomorrow as I would like to start building long positions. Market expects a 0.5% rate hike in March and QE to end and with Powell I really don't know. He's such an idiot that he probably only does 0.25% and somehow extends QE a few more months. He's a puppet for the markets to go higher.
 
Tech has a clear flag building....normally this would be a bear flag but those don't exist anymore.

4hr chart

Screen Shot 2022-02-15 at 10.57.34 AM.png
 
Fed minutes tomorrow then Bullard speaks Thursday at 11 lol . Puts will print
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Someone bought $8m worth of calls for $AMAT, $145 strike for the March exp. Earnings tomorrow...anything semi related been cranking out good earnings.
 
Rain Cold said:
Prominent H&S: Negative
Prominent Double Top: Negative
S&P Rejection at 200 DMA: Negative
CPI Surprise Upside: Negative
PPI Surprise Upside: Negative
Fed Speakers Bearish: Negative
Fed to hike by 50 bps in March: Negative
GG/Reddit Index: Bearish

Outlooks for stocks: Bullish
Click to expand...

But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
 
GaWx said:
But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
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The markets have been extremely predictable since 2010. Can you time every dip or pullback? No. But outside of the fringe/alt media, everybody has been overall bullish...and they've been correct. "Bear market's" have been astonishingly short in duration. Almost everyone has been bullish. TA has done a fairly good job helping you time things, if you're a day trader. But, my post was more in jest than anything else.
 
Rain Cold said:
The markets have been extremely predictable since 2010. Can you time every dip or pullback? No. But outside of the fringe/alt media, everybody has been overall bullish...and they've been correct. "Bear market's" have been astonishingly short in duration. Almost everyone has been bullish. TA has done a fairly good job helping you time things, if you're a day trader. But, my post was more in jest than anything else.
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It is very difficult to time the market. That’s why I feel that the most prudent choice for the longterm (multidecadal) especially if young, is to invest a sizable portion of assets in diversified equities. Being LONGTERM bullish is the best way to go per history for the majority of money invested in stocks as opposed to trying to time getting in and getting out.
 
KyloG said:
Someone bought $8m worth of calls for $AMAT, $145 strike for the March exp. Earnings tomorrow...anything semi related been cranking out good earnings.
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I like it.

Given the way earnings have been going, I don't like it enough to finish the position that I have before earnings (which I added to last a while ago). Already got burned once. But if it drops, I might finish that position.

Speaking of which, considering the way semis have been running today, it is probably going to HURT for all of them if NVDA tanks on earnings. And if it doesn't, it could be a tailwind for the day.

Edit: Wait, NVDA reports tomorrow, like AMAT does. Whoops.
 
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GaWx said:
But looking back in history, how often have the markets truly been “predictable” in the short to medium term? I think that folks too easily forget that markets too often go against the so called “expected”. If short term investing were so easy/predictable, practically everyone would do it and there’d be less or no reward for doing it successfully. With no risk, there’s no reward.

Corollary to this: whenever “everyone” feels bullish/bearish, in reality it is bearish/bullish. If everyone is feeling bullish/bearish, they’ve already bought/sold and there’s nobody left to buy/sell.

Also related to this, technical analysis is far from flawless. Related to this, there are different ways to look at something from a TA analysis.
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What is predictable is this is very much a momentum driven market, mob mentality rules. Very little in the way of fundamentals drives much anymore. And ever since covid the retail mob has come in and they buy every dip. Institutions don't fight that....well they tried and they got crushed with GME/AMC.

Unemployment is very low and wages are up. More money going into the market weekly with 401k's.
 
KyloG said:
What is predictable is this is very much a momentum driven market, mob mentality rules. Very little in the way of fundamentals drives much anymore. And ever since covid the retail mob has come in and they buy every dip. Institutions don't fight that....well they tried and they got crushed with GME/AMC.

Unemployment is very low and wages are up. More money going into the market weekly with 401k's.
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I continue to passively invest a decent portion (though not majority) of my portfolio in diversified equities with a good amount of cash always available. If there are any sizable dips, I may take some of that cash and nibble with some new longterm longs.
 
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SPY rejected $450 multiple times past couple of weeks....market could really get fun with a weekly close over $450.

Screen Shot 2022-02-15 at 4.46.40 PM.png
 
So, NVDA reports tomorrow actually, so there's freedom for whatever to happen.

But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.

But I didn't think we'd get 3 straight tape bombs (there was one yesterday for a little while, even though the Russia stuff that was put out there got dismissed), so never say never. Maybe we get 5 out of 6 tape bombs...or maybe I go 2 for my last 2 on my feel (as I was feeling last night that you weren't going to see a similar reaction to PPI as what was seen with CPI).

Now, if Russia is doing something like annex Donbass, then we are going to get hit tomorrow for sure. What happens after is anyone's guess though.
 
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So the reports of troops going home this am that were only reported by Russia still haven't been verified and we still have us intelligence sounding the alarm that they are going in soon .

Either way fed minutes will create a blood bath tomorrow afternoon with or without more Russian news
 
KyloG said:
GeorgiaGirl said:
So, NVDA reports tomorrow actually, so there's freedom for whatever to happen.

But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.

But I didn't think we'd get 3 straight tape bombs (there was one yesterday for a little while, even though the Russia stuff that was put out there got dismissed), so never say never. Maybe we get 5 out of 6 tape bombs...or maybe I go 2 for my last 2 on my feel (as I was feeling last night that you weren't going to see a similar reaction to PPI as what was seen with CPI).

Now, if Russia is doing something like annex Donbass, then we are going to get hit tomorrow for sure. What happens after is anyone's guess though.
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I just don't see it . To much uncertainty with Russia , fed minutes , Bullard speaking Thursday . Could be wrong , but it rejected resistance literally like 8 times today so it's gonna take something big to get a $450 break this week .
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I'm wrong a lot thought so .......
 
Storm5 said:
View attachment 113622

So the reports of troops going home this am that were only reported by Russia still haven't been verified and we still have us intelligence sounding the alarm that they are going in soon .

Either way fed minutes will create a blood bath tomorrow afternoon with or without more Russian news
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Regarding what I bolded regarding the Fed minutes: When it appears to be this certain in the markets, that means it likely is far from certain. Maybe a lot of that is already priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario (opposite of selling off on bullish news). Has most everyone already sold on this in advance?
 
Broken024 said:
World war 3 is priced in already. We good till ww4.
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The fact that the market didn't go down late today after Biden's speech may really mean that the bad news is already largely priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario from this point on assuming it doesn't get too crazy. Nobody knows.
 
If big players were thinking that war is a legit threat, the VIX should be higher than what it is.

The fact that some of the hedging has been burned leaves the door open for the hammer though.
 
Retail sales came in hot....CPI hot...PPI hot...inflation is hot. ?‍♂️

When does the Fed realize we are in big trouble with inflation. With QE still flowing and rates at 0% I don't think they get it. ?‍♂️

 
GaWx said:
Regarding what I bolded regarding the Fed minutes: When it appears to be this certain in the markets, that means it likely is far from certain. Maybe a lot of that is already priced in. Could be a buy the bearish news scenario (opposite of selling off on bullish news). Has most everyone already sold on this in advance?
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Last fed minutes release caused a 2 percent drop. Short term I'm buying weekly puts . Hope for a dip for sure cause you are right it would be a great buying opportunity
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
But I gotta say, if Russia isn't launching an attack tomorrow (if there is a specific report that "an attack is going to happen at 3 AM eastern on Wednesday", then if you want to make the west look bad, then why would you actually do it if you do have plans to do it?), I can't imagine that we get 4 out of 5 tape bombs.
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Aaaannnndddddd nope.

Looks like 4 out of 5 tape bombs it is considering that we started similarly to 1/5.

Sell the news that we're afraid of, and then sell the news that comes out.

Over under -100 on SPX at some point today?
 
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