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Misc Stock Market

If what happened the past couple times Powell has talked is any good indicator, here's what tomorrow and Thursday will look like:

Tomorrow: Chop lower into the statement...maybe (if the margin calls are finished, as I swear the past couple mornings...early afternoon with Monday too, have to be margin calls), then the statement comes out and, in the end, it gets exposed that there were people being greedy fools with their shorts and they get blown up.

Thursday: Then the Nasdaq gets blown up and loses everything that it gained from people really pressing hard short wise and getting blown up.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If what happened the past couple times Powell has talked is any good indicator, here's what tomorrow and Thursday will look like:

Tomorrow: Chop lower into the statement...maybe (if the margin calls are finished, as I swear the past couple mornings...early afternoon with Monday too, have to be margin calls), then the statement comes out and, in the end, it gets exposed that there were people being greedy fools with their shorts and they get blown up.

Thursday: Then the Nasdaq gets blown up and loses everything that it gained from people really pressing hard short wise and getting blown up.
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I'm going to take the other side. After the call, market rallies for the balance of the week. Due for a bounce. We're coming back down here and lower, unless the Fed reverses course or suggests hiking will be delayed or slower. Do you think the market is way overvalued or a little bit overvalued or fairly valued? I think it's close to bubble-icious.

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Rain Cold said:
I'm going to take the other side. After the call, market rallies for the balance of the week. Due for a bounce. We're coming back down here and lower, unless the Fed reverses course or suggests hiking will be delayed or slower. Do you think the market is way overvalued or a little bit overvalued or fairly valued? I think it's close to bubble-icious.

Will GG reply to my post? Check

□ Yes
□ No
□ Maybe

?
Click to expand...
We are in a bubble and it’s going to get worse. But, will the Fed really hike that many times and will they actually reduce there balance sheet.

But short term I think we bounce. ?‍♂️
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm going to take the other side. After the call, market rallies for the balance of the week. Due for a bounce. We're coming back down here and lower, unless the Fed reverses course or suggests hiking will be delayed or slower. Do you think the market is way overvalued or a little bit overvalued or fairly valued? I think it's close to bubble-icious.

Will GG reply to my post? Check

□ Yes
□ No
□ Maybe

?
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Due for a bounce, sure.

Sustained bounce...I've given up.

If we've decided that the S&P needs to trade at least at a 15 forward P/E, then we have more to go (I don't know if we have, it's just an open thought). My focus is there, although I know what the Buffett indicator says about the market.
 
KyloG said:
We are in a bubble and it’s going to get worse. But, will the Fed really hike that many times and will they actually reduce there balance sheet.

But short term I think we bounce. ?‍♂️
Click to expand...
You still on AMD? I'm tempted to sell a 100 put. Premium is $500 for early March.
 
my life savings arein msft since they are buying activision/blizz
 
Bought some IWM today at just over $200....added more SPY last night in the $430's. Was mostly cash and now about 20%. A flush from here is going to leave a mark...much worse than missing this coastal on Saturday.
 
I actually can't believe that the NDX threw away what appeared to almost be a 3% jump at the highest...I jokingly said at another place while we were seeing some ups and downs that this was going to be the time that it threw away the kind of gap up it saw finally because people wised up and covered their shorts before what we usually see with the statement, which is the "drop our hedges effect" (this appears to be true now), but at about 12 PM-1 PM, it looked as if this was going to be that FOMC I remember where we went into it higher and maintained the gains. Instead, it looks like the June FOMC last year where everything economically connected got trashed.

Not happy that I called it, more disgusted. It was going to be a really nice day for me. Was.

Although I kinda thought that something like this would happen tomorrow anyway. Maybe Tesla prints a beat, and the focus turns back to earnings, because Google was having its best day in forever on the proxy effect to Microsoft.
 
Looks like last night was Asia's turn for the margin clerk, like Monday and Tuesday morning was about the margin clerk for the US.

I don't really have any confidence that this holds though.
 
Now that SPY is under the 200SMA, and keeps banging it's head against it, I'm not going long in anything until that scenario changes.
 
Retesting the low from Monday is basically the last shot for IWM, if it fails, there is officially nothing until $165-170 (the Pfizer day gap from 2020), and everything is going with it.

Looked like large caps were going to try to ignore them for a change for a day earlier today but that failed, the drag from IWM sucking wind is really hurting everything.

It hurts that I didn't sell AEO, and I probably should've sold VICI too considering that IWM has nothing.
 
I don't think that's our lows on the year but this was really over sold.

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Short cover Friday so far...with a twist this time, every pop is getting sold into.

I'm having serious doubts that Monday was actually a panic low for the time being. If it was a panic low, one of the pops that happened on Wednesday or yesterday would have held and the short cover bounce today (which was started with short covering on Tesla), wouldn't be having a hard time holding.

Edit: Yeah, Monday was not a panic low, if the Nasdaq was ready to rally, it would not have thrown away what's likely to be 3 big attempted bounces now.
 
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