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GeorgiaGirl

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I think I have an idea of what was happening while I wasn’t really looking. There was apparently a fund (and maybe more than one) getting blown up, which was causing liquidations. They were names that are not really important to the averages, but it did cause volatility to stir, which put pressure on the averages.

Once that stopped, volatility went back to sleep and the S&P jumped 20 points in 10 minutes.

Explaining the last 25 minutes is above my pay grade, but I will say that QQQ max pain for today options wise was $316 and puts are leading calls now. They are next week too.
 

KyloG

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IWM looks great if it can close over $222 on Monday. But, if it gives up the 50dma then...I am banking on it recovering. Retail is still swarming anything with a pulse.

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KyloG

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Cathie’s funds looks plenty beat up and she’s been on a buying spree of beat up stocks. These are down 30%. If their is going to be a reversal these could be nice.

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GeorgiaGirl

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Archegos Capital has apparently been confirmed as the fund that blew up yesterday.

The Dow and S&P had all time closing highs.

Some of these L/S guys apparently have no common sense. The guy involved had been running on 5x leverage.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Cathie’s funds looks plenty beat up and she’s been on a buying spree of beat up stocks. These are down 30%. If their is going to be a reversal these could be nice.
I think anybody that bought short term puts in the ARKs likely would have been better off burning their money. My lean is down Monday for the market but her funds are going to bounce again soon. May be worth it to trade that but the bounce may have already started.

I wouldn't long it right now given the things that I've hearing. A lot of big guys are shorting her stuff. I'm guessing that you'll see a big bounce out of it and then back down after OPEX in April (April 16th).
 

GeorgiaGirl

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David Faber on Twitter: "Carnage in $VIAC may not be done. Hearing another $2b block of shares being shopped tonight as liquidation of one or more hedge funds continues.These were the buyers sending $VIAC and $DISCA up over these last 2 months. Buying on swap, using enormous leverage and somehow unknown." / Twitter

Well at least one player isn't really unknown now but dang. May be some weird action again tomorrow (as it was kind of odd that the VIX woke up on a Friday considering what often happens then, I was honestly thinking that we were mostly done for the day at around 1).

Like I said on Saturday, I'm thinking that tomorrow is going to be red. Actually, weakness can likely last through the 31st, but unless something crazy happens, you probably see a rally to OPEX week after the 29th-31st, where it will be interesting to see if whether the rotation/dispersion stops after OPEX.

Chinese tech may become a swing trade soon? (as I'm guessing that if VIAC gets liquidated, names such as BIDU might get hit too and there are other names here) Not something I'll participate in, but have at it if you want.
 

whatalife

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Thinking about buying some stock in XRP. Any thoughts on this stock option?


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Nerman

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HGEN finally popped yesterday after releasing results from it's P3 trial of treatment for hospitalized C19 patients. Been waiting a long time on this one. There is still room to run when they get Emergency Use Authorization, etc. But still risky cause shorts will want to have their fun in-between press releases. Coincidentally, the other I mentioned here, RLFTF, also released promising 60 day results from their C19 trial as well.
 

KyloG

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Glad I bought more MVIS this morning! The squeeze is on @Rain Cold
Kill me now. I dipped my toe in yesterday with only 200 shares. I should have bought 2000 shares. 🤦‍♂️

I was traveling and saw how low it was and added it for a placeholder to scale in more. I just pulled in my driveway and noticed it’s fn $18!

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metwannabe

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Kill me now. I dipped my toe in yesterday with only 200 shares. I should have bought 2000 shares. 🤦‍♂️

I was traveling and saw how low it was and added it for a placeholder to scale in more. I just pulled in my driveway and noticed it’s fn $18!

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This was unexpected news tbh, nothing to do with it's April LRL demo....if they drop some AH PR, oh my!!
 

GaWx

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Nice day for bulls overall with new closing record for S&P 500, a very strong Nasdaq, and an only modestly down Dow,
 

KyloG

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This was unexpected news tbh, nothing to do with it's April LRL demo....if they drop some AH PR, oh my!!
Sold my measly 200 shares at $19.20. That was right at resistance...I would love for a gap down tomorrow as I would buy the dip.

I think $17 would be a good spot to try again. It had a big candle in early Feb and then sold off $5/share before going again. I don't think this drops much more than $16 with the news that just came out and the speculation. But, when I have a stock move from $12-$19 into resistance I take profits.

The hourly chart shows it battling the purple trend line...which is the breakout.

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GeorgiaGirl

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I wonder if the S&P's dance with the 4k line or maybe a little higher is going to end up turning into something similar to what was seen in 2019 where it was extremely tough to crack 3k. It ended up turning back about 5 points from it in the middle of the day.

It'll likely get there and perhaps beyond next week with good structural flows, but I could see a case where it gets to the "beyond" and then finally corrects not long after that, what will need to be watched is how other parts of the market does, especially the transports (as that's a good lead indicator in the case of the Dow, it looked great yesterday but not so good today, although today was only one day). If they're slack, it's a likely flag that builds on the flag that small caps honestly might be done here...
 

KyloG

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I had went more cash a couple of weeks ago, mainly at the expense of tech but I started scaling back in past few days when the Q’s reclaimed the 100dma. Still in 50% cash but planning on moving to 70-80% especially if tomorrow can hold $316. $324 has been a big pivot past couple of months. If Q’s can get over that it could be a retest of ATH. I started big positions in AMD and MWK past couple of days. AMD has been able to hold $74 for several months now.

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KyloG

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FUTU almost gave me a heart attack past couple of weeks. I started a position at $130 last week at the 50dma. It kept selling off, so I added more $120...”buy the dip” they say.
Well it kept going down probably due to the China sucks news...it was down at $100 and I was about to take a big loss but I doubled down at $105. Needless to say I avoided bankruptcy and sold everything mid $150’s today. It looks really good still but my heart can’t take that again.

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GeorgiaGirl

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After reading through "the everything short" on r/GME, that's the last time I go there, lol.

- I'm actually fully aware that the bond market has seen a lot of shorting lately but at least for now, that's meaningless. That's actually apparently likely to get burned soon, because there are apparently going to be bond bids in the first half of April.

- There's no reason for GME to see a massive squeeze right now. You're going to need a catalyst for it, otherwise the hedge funds can just sit and chill.

- Pretty sure that there is a hedge fund version of Citadel and a Citadel the market maker and both aren't the same thing.

But I will add to the final point, if "Citadel the market maker" is doing this and they get blown up, it's the Lehman Brothers of 2021.

Anyway, unless something interrupts the regime, volatility is likely to die next month (not that it hasn't already been dying at times of late), which is going to lead to a melt up for at least one week, if not through to the week of options expiring.
 

KyloG

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Sold my measly 200 shares at $19.20. That was right at resistance...I would love for a gap down tomorrow as I would buy the dip.

I think $17 would be a good spot to try again. It had a big candle in early Feb and then sold off $5/share before going again. I don't think this drops much more than $16 with the news that just came out and the speculation. But, when I have a stock move from $12-$19 into resistance I take profits.

The hourly chart shows it battling the purple trend line...which is the breakout.

View attachment 80989
$MVIS bounced perfectly at support in pre-market...$16.40. I started back up with 500 shares at $16.50. Unless the market starts selling off I don't see this dropping much past $16. This was almost $14/share before the news.

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Rain Cold

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Met, RainCold - you guys selling your MVIS yet?
I have scaled most of mine off in the mid teens. But I still have 1000 shares with a basis of $1.43. I have made more than enough profit on the shares I sold that I'm comfortable letting that ride until buyout or until it goes to zero. I mean if it comes out that the whole thing is a fraud, then I'll sell, but I like their tech and think they are on a much better path than they were before.

All I'm focused on right now is trying to find some 2020-2021 Prizm basketball cards. Anybody local have any contacts that work at Target lol?
 

GeorgiaGirl

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The VIX (volatility) ended up finishing up -10.67% today. Inject that straight into my veins.

It feels like volatility really is on the edge of dying completely here for at least a little while. Apparently these kinds of moves can also be dangerous though, as less and less people are hedging, but unless something happens in the next couple days, it looks possible you see a December-February 2020 or 2017 style market for at least a short period.
 
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