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Misc Stock Market

At the beginning of the year Fidelity's recommendation was that tech would have a down year and to invest in foreign funds. Well tech is up 30% on the year...a friggin ETF up 30%. I wonder how long this will keep up....this has been going on 12 years and it looks like no end in sight.

Thank goodness I didn't invest in foreign funds. I did scale back in tech and invested in more dividend growth which was great first 6 months of year but tech is where it's at.
 

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KyloG said:
At the beginning of the year Fidelity's recommendation was that tech would have a down year and to invest in foreign funds. Well tech is up 30% on the year...a friggin ETF up 30%. I wonder how long this will keep up....this has been going on 12 years and it looks like no end in sight.

Thank goodness I didn't invest in foreign funds. I did scale back in tech and invested in more dividend growth which was great first 6 months of year but tech is where it's at.
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Biden picked Powell for second term today....

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So pissed I sold my AMD leap back when it was in the mid 80s. So stupid.
 
I hate reversal days to the downside like this one. The worst part about it is had the market closed 20 or 30 minutes before it does, I wouldn't have had as much problem as I do.

It's not that I have trouble resisting FOMO, it's that I wanted to enjoy where we were at in the middle of this morning a little longer and not concern myself too much about small and mid-cap growth being on a journey to the centre of eternity (reference to a song I like, lol).

What's interesting is that the market internals are oversold because of how badly small and mid-cap growth are getting hit, but then bigger cap tech has barely sold. I wonder if what happened late this morning/early this afternoon was capitulation there, or if whether it keeps going.
 
Trying XBI at $118.40. Right at bottom support of long channel. It either holds or it's flushing.
 

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One thing that has happened is the high growth cash burning names such as SNOW is getting pummeled. DKNG/UPST/NET...so many of these names. Is this a short term issue or is the market saying we aren't giving these companies 50-60x valuations anymore.

SNOW was trading at 120x sales...that's absurd but people were buying it. I can't invest in companies like this, not at 120x sales while burning cash. But the market rewarded people that invested in these for past couple of years.
 

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KyloG said:
One thing that has happened is the high growth cash burning names such as SNOW is getting pummeled. DKNG/UPST/NET...so many of these names. Is this a short term issue or is the market saying we aren't giving these companies 50-60x valuations anymore.

SNOW was trading at 120x sales...that's absurd but people were buying it. I can't invest in companies like this, not at 120x sales while burning cash. But the market rewarded people that invested in these for past couple of years.
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Will be interesting to see how 2022 goes for these high growth potential that are trading at 30-40x and some 80-100x sales multiples.

 
My running theory is that the high growth land carnage doesn't resolve until the Nasdaq drops 20%.

I still theorize that next year is going to be 2018-esque...maybe even something slightly more volatile, and both cases would mean a 20% drop in the Nasdaq happens at some point.

I do not think there's going to be a proper crash though, as too many are calling for something like that.

In other news, the Russell 2000 is still alive. Would've been nice if 2360 held, but apparently the actual bull/bear line is 2310, and it probed underneath and bounced. Hopefully, the low is in.

Zoom's valuation didn't make sense to me last year, and it's the kind of stock that still may be in trouble if the theory that I have plays out.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
In other news, the Russell 2000 is still alive. Would've been nice if 2360 held, but apparently the actual bull/bear line is 2310, and it probed underneath and bounced. Hopefully, the low is in.
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ok the Russell and Dow are both no longer fine in the short term at least unless this is what happened on Father’s Day at night this year (Asia got crushed and it took the US futures with them, and that was gone by morning, but that night was less violent in the futures than this one). 2310 and 35500 needed to hold, now I’m hoping that 35000 does, or my guess that none of the big 3 fill their 10/14 gaps until sometime next year will probably be wrong.

But I doubt it. Tomorrow isn’t going to be as liquid for us and because of the COVID variant news, it’s probably going to be a global selloff…so back to back Fridays where COVID fear played a role in pushing things, with tomorrow being more violent than last Friday.

Have I mentioned how over COVID I am?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
ok the Russell and Dow are both no longer fine in the short term at least unless this is what happened on Father’s Day at night this year (Asia got crushed and it took the US futures with them, and that was gone by morning, but that night was less violent in the futures than this one). 2310 and 35500 needed to hold, now I’m hoping that 35000 does, or my guess that none of the big 3 fill their 10/14 gaps until sometime next year will probably be wrong.

But I doubt it. Tomorrow isn’t going to be as liquid for us and because of the COVID variant news, it’s probably going to be a global selloff…so back to back Fridays where COVID fear played a role in pushing things, with tomorrow being more violent than last Friday.

Have I mentioned how over COVID I am?
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Japan's stock market is selling good tommorow.
 
Bloodbath. New variant has the market spooked. They are saying the spike protein of this new variant is dramatically different than the one that the vaccines were designed to recognize. Let’s see where she goes today. Down nearly 2% pre market.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Bloodbath. New variant has the market spooked. They are saying the spike protein of this new variant is dramatically different than the one that the vaccines were designed to recognize. Let’s see where she goes today. Down nearly 2% pre market.
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10 mutations in the spike protein binding site, delta has 2 mutations in the binding site. The market always knows…privileged info makes its way to the market earlier than we get news, this is not good. OR it’s panic on low liquidity and leverage unwinding. Which one is it?
 
Jon said:
10 mutations in the spike protein binding site, delta has 2 mutations in the binding site. The market always knows…privileged info makes its way to the market earlier than we get news, this is not good. OR it’s panic on low liquidity and leverage unwinding. Which one is it?
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Probably the latter.
 
I hate to say it but the timing of the news was so interesting.

Hmm let’s drop this news on what is normally a thinly traded night before a thinly traded half session, while many are mingling with family or watching football. I wasn’t expecting much so I was very confused at first an hour into last night’s futures session when I looked at the Russell in IG for fun and saw it down as much as it was that soon.

Maybe I should stop scoffing at the idea of manipulation.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I hate to say it but the timing of the news was so interesting.

Hmm let’s drop this news on what is normally a thinly traded night before a thinly traded half session, while many are mingling with family or watching football. I wasn’t expecting much so I was very confused at first an hour into last night’s futures session when I looked at the Russell in IG for fun and saw it down as much as it was that soon.

Maybe I should stop scoffing at the idea of manipulation.
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The sooner you acquiesce to the fact that not only does manipulation exist in securities markets but also in many other areas, the better off you'll be.
 
Jon said:
10 mutations in the spike protein binding site, delta has 2 mutations in the binding site. The market always knows…privileged info makes its way to the market earlier than we get news, this is not good. OR it’s panic on low liquidity and leverage unwinding. Which one is it?
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I don't understand...the market didn't react to delta like this...what does the market know about this variant that is so scary? I don't get it...
 
MRNA market cap up $27billion today and their vaccines are, supposedly, ineffective against the virus strain thats scaring the market today. How do you even invest properly these days?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
MRNA market cap up $27billion today and their vaccines are, supposedly, ineffective against the virus strain thats scaring the market today. How do you even invest properly these days?
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No clue...this is such a momentum market totally disconnected from the economy and doesn't trade on fundamentals. Army of retail folks that only knows if you buy the dip, buy OTM calls you will make a ton of money.
 
Broken024 said:
Think that's just speculation at this point.
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I get that but if the vaccines were working why would the US market care at all about a new virus strain? I can’t make sense of it. Maybe they’re banking on increased fear due to the new strain and thus more booster shots will be sold here regardless of effectiveness in the next quarter?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I get that but if the vaccines were working why would the US market care at all about a new virus strain? I can’t make sense of it. Maybe they’re banking on increased fear due to the new strain and thus more booster shots will be sold here regardless of effectiveness in the next quarter?
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The vaccines are working very well vs death/serious illness. No one knows on this variant. I read that they can tweak these mrna vaccines very quickly to adjust for variants (problem is long trials required). But yes market could be betting on additional vaccines.
 
S&P futs with a big engulfing red candle. This doesn't inspire confidence to finish the year but it seems like every time the markets are about to fall off a cliff buyers come racing in. It's been 20 months since tech or S&P have touched there 200dema. I expect a rally into Xmas...
 

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This little spec bio was my one winner in a sea of red. A buddy recommended at $2 and I didn't buy it until today at $2.35
 

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I'm guessing that we gap down on Sunday night/Monday morning and then reverse...I don't see the S&P going lower than the September ATH.

If I'm wrong, then I will most likely be wrong about the 10/14 gap up not filling completely for a while, and I suspect 4290 would fail even if it is that mythical 200-day moving average that hasn't been touched for a while. It was a support area 3 times in October, and every time support is hit, it weakens. I think a 4th time would fail and you'd probably at least see 4100.

What will also be interesting on Monday is how bonds and oil move. That oil move was seriously cray, and a good reason why we probably need to see what happens on Monday.
 
Broken024 said:
Futures have decided Omicron is a beta -----. Up bigly.
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I think they overacted on Friday. Even if Omicron evades antibodies more than Beta and makes the vaccine less effective against infection, the T-cells should be good. I've seen studies that it's impossible for COVID to evade T-cells through mutations.
 
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