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Misc Stock Market

Took a shot at NVDA at $113.80 vs low of day. Just a quick swing. It’s down almost 30% from a couple weeks ago. Tech earnings been stellar.
 
Took a shot at NVDA at $113.80 vs low of day. Just a quick swing. It’s down almost 30% from a couple weeks ago. Tech earnings been stellar.

NVDA working out on that Mexico caving headline. I took some SPY at $592....I got stopped out on Friday at $605 so this volatility is working nicely.
 
Sold all of my puts and switched to SPY 3/21 601c. It was all a charade. Got to be nimble with this administration.
I still think volatility rules. I do think market heads lowers over the next couple of months. Now, it might rip this week.
 
NVDA working out on that Mexico caving headline. I took some SPY at $592....I got stopped out on Friday at $605 so this volatility is working nicely.
Sold my SPY at 597.60...quick 5pts is enough for me. I am just going to take trades, quick swings for a few weeks. I am going to leave NVDA on...treating that as a long hedge of sorts versus $113...bought at $113.80....stop at $112.30. Give it a little room.
 
Sold my SPY at 597.60...quick 5pts is enough for me. I am just going to take trades, quick swings for a few weeks. I am going to leave NVDA on...treating that as a long hedge of sorts versus $113...bought at $113.80....stop at $112.30. Give it a little room.
That's probably a good hold through earnings. Not sure what is going on with AAPL. It's not participating in the recovery party yet. Maybe China tariff?
 
That's probably a good hold through earnings. Not sure what is going on with AAPL. It's not participating in the recovery party yet. Maybe China tariff?
definitely china tariff.
 
I'm really amazed by the amount of people who truly that believe Trump is going to rush headlong into trade wars, crash the global economy, and walk off into the sunset.
I believe that...and I still do. I am convinced he is going to do that and lower fed tax rate somehow. Maybe a fixed rate.
 
I'm really amazed by the amount of people who truly that believe Trump is going to rush headlong into trade wars, crash the global economy, and walk off into the sunset.
Problem is, when countries start calling his Bluff, the method doesn't work anymore and he has to follow through.
 
I'm really amazed by the amount of people who truly that believe Trump is going to rush headlong into trade wars, crash the global economy, and walk off into the sunset.
Because that's what he did the first time.....oh wait
 
Problem is, when countries start calling his Bluff, the method doesn't work anymore and he has to follow through.
Or it could be there are other options and maybe everything that they know isn't necessarily what we know.

The Trump Doom and Gloom trade has been the hot trade for 8 years. It's broken everybody who has ridden it. Every single time.
 
Took a shot at NVDA at $113.80 vs low of day. Just a quick swing. It’s down almost 30% from a couple weeks ago. Tech earnings been stellar.

NVDA up almost 5 pts and I am going to be a dummy again...going to stick with it. Last week I had a good swing from $118 to $125 but then. took it again at $122 and got stopped out on Friday when it gave up $120. Today back in at $113.80.

I would feel better with a close over $120 today.

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Canada tariffs postponed. They reached a deal.


The fun thing is that Trudeau is literally just reiterating what was already passed in December. (the thing that you can credit as a win is they did it out of concern involving Trump)


Fresh and exciting! /s
 
That's got to be disappointing news to the world ending crowd. Who coulda seen this coming?
I never expected Trump to use it as scare tactics. Or is he…maybe he just getting Canada/Mexico to jump to what he wants and then still tariff them in March
 
I never expected Trump to use it as scare tactics. Or is he…maybe he just getting Canada/Mexico to jump to what he wants and then still tariff them in March
It's because you fell into the trap that everybody else does when it comes to anything Trump does. You listen to the media, the pundits, and the "expert analysts". Their job is to sell you on news and scare you.

Trump may ultimately fail. But not for the reasons articulated by the main stream narrative. It's just like Shetley getting wound up every single time about the debt ceiling not being extended. And it always is.

Trump is not going to crash the global economy on a whimsical shoot from the hip cockamamie plan.
 
It's because you fell into the trap that everybody else does when it comes to anything Trump does. You listen to the media, the pundits, and the "expert analysts". Their job is to sell you on news and scare you.

Trump may ultimately fail. But not for the reasons articulated by the main stream narrative. It's just like Shetley getting wound up every single time about the debt ceiling not being extended. And it always is.

Trump is not going to crash the global economy on a whimsical shoot from the hip cockamamie plan.
Musk may do it though.
 
It's because you fell into the trap that everybody else does when it comes to anything Trump does. You listen to the media, the pundits, and the "expert analysts". Their job is to sell you on news and scare you.

Trump may ultimately fail. But not for the reasons articulated by the main stream narrative. It's just like Shetley getting wound up every single time about the debt ceiling not being extended. And it always is.

Trump is not going to crash the global economy on a whimsical shoot from the hip cockamamie plan.

He could crash the global economy not from a shoot from hip cockamamie plan but rather from a well thought out plan. We’ve already been through this with him in early 2018. China trade war. He will be imposing tariffs, that we know.

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Yeah, the much longer-term winner here is going to be China.

I suspect these tariffs get quietly walked back in a couple months, but these country's trust in the US has just been shattered, probably permanently. It's going to lead to these countries diversifying, and China is the big alternative they can look to.

TL/DR: if I felt like I could trust China, I'd be buying up China stocks right now to hold for the next few years.

As far as I'm concerned, this complaint still stands, mostly.

Maybe it's not 25% tariffs (which I did have my doubts), but I do have a feeling that the USMCA gets torn up this year.
 
This pretty much conveys how I feel. T & Co. have no real plan for the market or the wider economy.


Also, it's important to remember that the trade relationship with Canada has been damaged in such a way that it will be a semi-permanent drag on both economies. Canada provides raw materials that we cannot source in volume elsewhere. I don't expect our imports to go down much at all, but they're moving at breakneck speed to diversify away from sole US suppliers. Case in point:

 
This market has been chopping around in this channel for 5-6 months. That's an eternity for our markets...

Right now its in the dead center...just waiting and seeing.

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Still holding NVDA at $113.80....going for S/R flip

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Come on NVDA...tagged it's 20dema...macd needs to curl up and this can run.

At a min a retracement back to the 20dema is needed.

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NVDA working like a champ....put some SPY on to have some more long on with the mid day dip. As much as I believe the market is heading down next couple of months I very could be wrong.

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I have too much NVDA on from $113.80...I would feel better with close over $120 today. I may raise my stop for half my shares to today's low. We really shouldn't see today's low broken this week if it's going to be special.

AMD earnings after the close...I own AMD in my IRA, owned it for years. It's actually lagged the Qs the past 2 couple of years so that stinks but I will be stubborn about it.


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This is a nice looking chart into earnings today...if we see an initial dump after earning released I may swing shares. I may put bids from $114.50 to $112.00.

Sometimes you will see AMD sell off next day after earnings..so if it does that I might buy that tomorrow. I really feel like a good earnings is coming.

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I took AMD at $112.50 after hours....swing trade. Will give this a little room maybe $110 stop. Earnings look very good...solid growth...solid guidance. Trading at 7x sales with 25% growth...not a lot of $190B market cap companies with 20%+ growth at 7x sales. This is relatively cheap.

I will add more down to $110 too.

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I took AMD at $112.50 after hours....swing trade. Will give this a little room maybe $110 stop. Earnings look very good...solid growth...solid guidance. Trading at 7x sales with 25% growth...not a lot of $190B market cap companies with 20%+ growth at 7x sales. This is relatively cheap.

I will add more down to $110 too.

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This broke $110…uggh. Took the loss and fight another day.
 
Man, NVDA is broken if it can't rally again on CAPEX by another company, and I wouldn't be surprised if it can't.
 
This broke $110…uggh. Took the loss and fight another day.
I closed out my AMD in my IRA....as much as I think its a great company the market has lost confidence in Lisa. I've owened shares since before covid..avg in the $30's, closed at $108. It's lagged the Qs, it's time to throw in the towel.
 
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