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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I did add some TQQQ this morning at 82.20'ish...to go along with the SPY I'm carrying. Market defying gravity so why fight it. And now closing at NVDA at 122 mid seems foolish. I suck sometimes.
Interesting. Supposedly (Chinese users, so I'm not sure) the new 5090 cards are dying cause of some kind of motherboard issue with the PCIE 5.0 tech.
Just a heads up for NVIDIA investors. I have no clue how widely these cards are being invested in versus the 4090 right now. Performance gains arent massive for the cost.
Just a heads up for NVIDIA investors. I have no clue how widely these cards are being invested in versus the 4090 right now. Performance gains arent massive for the cost.
With selling AMD in my IRA, I am going to replace with MSFT. Its been consolidating for 13 months now and revenues are still growing aggressively. Starter position for now.
This may test $380'ish so want to be able to add down there.
This may test $380'ish so want to be able to add down there.
Qs at $125 mid...which has been resistance in the past. Last Friday it gave that up violently. Still holding TQQQ from low 82's...see how it reacts. But lately it seems we get some news from Trump and everything dumps hard...so tricky.
Sucky day...just waterfalled it at 2:30pm, took out the morning low and now grinding it higher. They cleared out a lot of trailng stops...Amazon earnings tonight. I have some SPY on and a few TQQQ on. But typically when you see the waterfall late afternoon you get bearish closes but we shall see.
Brutal price action...just waterfalling, clearing out stops and then they yank it up hard...I got out of the way and no swings on. Been a great week/year and don't need this...
Inflation came in super hot…couple that with Trumps world tariff we are heading to a dark place. I got stopped out Friday and have done nothing all week. Been a good start to the year and now just waiting Tax selling hasn’t even started.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There is no room to run back the tariff/trade war game from 2018 without us initially probably getting a move to 3.5% inflation.
It's lost to the mystics of time, but the games from 2018 did initially push inflation up.
It's lost to the mystics of time, but the games from 2018 did initially push inflation up.
broken025
Member
Green by lunch
Kicking myself for not buying that dip. This market just gives money away on any dip…just have to buy it. It’s fool proof.
Oh well…not going to chase. Just watching.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Figured this was the proper thread for the markets and economy. Possible largest layoff in US history started tonight with federal probationary workers. USDA fired forest service, ARS, RD, and NRCS with other departments and agencies to follow
Nerman
Member
Closed these out. Waiting to see if we break out of this range or start heading back down. Lean is back down.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I’m a bit late to this, but I can see a push into 6165 by the S&P and then back off.
My base opinion on 2025 isn’t invalid unless 6200-6300 is passed with ease in the next 6ish weeks as I thought that could be reached and then you could see volatility ramp up and from the way it sounds, there is a chance it gets more interesting after the QQQ $510 covered puts expire in March.
My base opinion on 2025 isn’t invalid unless 6200-6300 is passed with ease in the next 6ish weeks as I thought that could be reached and then you could see volatility ramp up and from the way it sounds, there is a chance it gets more interesting after the QQQ $510 covered puts expire in March.
Market very annoying right now...yesterday SPY opened up above Fridays high and actually dipped below Friday's low late in the day and then they ran it up hard the last 30 mins. Today is just muted volume, blah but it's ATH's. I have some SPY but come on...a hard pullback is coming soon.
jovialweather
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
not really surprised that we're back under 6100, but if the S&P holds over 5900ish at worst to close the month, I think you can see 6200, and then more vol post March OPEX.
Sadly I got stopped out last week when $24 mid broke...but what a pain...it's been straight down for 8 months, off 80% and now gaps up almost 40%.
Finally seeing a real pullback...I got stopped out yesterday and it's been a good start to the year. Probably won't be doing much until we see a good 8-12% pullback in SPY.
SPX with a big trendline break...economy is doing good I guess...but inflation numbers have been horrid and Trump's tariffs are only going to make things worse. Trump alone will drive up unemployment which will affect everything. I really don't see how 2025 is going to be green this year. I came into this year thinking at best SPX would be flat. Cash in IRA's is earning 4.5-5% yield and will probably beat the market from here.
I won't be doing much until I see a 8-12% pullback in SPY...maybe more. I want to see the lower bollinger band peppered.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I've kept a relatively open mind on potential market outcome for 2025 (only thing I put off the table personally was a +20% threepeat), but I'll probably cliff jump if NVDA earnings aren't absorbed relatively well by the market, whether green or red next week.
4800-5000 could definitely be tested.
Somewhat annoyingly though, if we see that occur this year, it's probably healthier than continuing to run and then crash hard with the bull from 2008 ending.
4800-5000 could definitely be tested.
Somewhat annoyingly though, if we see that occur this year, it's probably healthier than continuing to run and then crash hard with the bull from 2008 ending.
Market still looks bad...clearly headed for another 100dema test. I think we are in the start of multi-week correction. NVDA earnings Wednesday and after that PCE on Friday. I can't imagine PCE will be good or really will even matter with tariffs starting soon.
SPY $550'ish would be a 10% correction...and the anchored VWAP from last April low. That would make a lot of sense. I really don't foresee any good news coming...the Trump euphoria is whaning.
I might nibble some scalps here an there but would need to be intraday oversold...extreme.
SPY $550'ish would be a 10% correction...and the anchored VWAP from last April low. That would make a lot of sense. I really don't foresee any good news coming...the Trump euphoria is whaning.
I might nibble some scalps here an there but would need to be intraday oversold...extreme.
I bought some TQQQ here at 76.50 for a quick scalp...but will keep stop loss tight. Tech in free fall...clearly looks like de-leveraging.
Nobody is going to want to be short into NVDA tomorrow for earnings.
Nobody is going to want to be short into NVDA tomorrow for earnings.
Fairly typical price action...they undercut a major pivot and then yank it back higher. My TQQQ long is working...I will be getting out of this before close.
I was waiting on this to happen today.
I was waiting on this to happen today.
I close my TQQQ here at 78.20 v/s buy at 76.50. Enough for me.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If NVDA isn't a total disaster tomorrow, there's put skew betting on it continuing to fall instead of call skew this time.
Could see that getting squeezed out.
Could see that getting squeezed out.
Any bounce will be temporary. Maybe PCE could trigger a sentiment change. But we are eerily similar to start of 2022…market extended and very expensive…inflation running hot. But now we got Trump tariffs and rising unemployment.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Going to be racing against time if those are actually implemented. Could just see the data tank first at the rate we're going and have that mask the tariffs some, but if not, the tariffs from 2018 did show up initially, so my guess is that you'd get an initial bump in inflation for a couple months that reversed lower.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Still a bit early, but it's looking as if NVDA popped enough today that it might have already wrung the options put skew out pre earnings.
Funny thing about the tariffs...they're postponed again. My guess I suppose is that if they happen at all, it'll be after inflation eases a decent amount.
Funny thing about the tariffs...they're postponed again. My guess I suppose is that if they happen at all, it'll be after inflation eases a decent amount.
Trump just posted on Truth Social that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on March 4. Also an additional 10% tariff on China will go into effect as well on March 4 as well.
I really don't know why AMD is getting beaten up so bad...trading at 6x sales...PEG of .4. It's getting it's butt kicked by NVDA/AVGO but it's growing nicely.
I had owned this for years but finally got fed up when $110 broke last week. If it hits $80 I will add it all back.
I had owned this for years but finally got fed up when $110 broke last week. If it hits $80 I will add it all back.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Should be one of the first semi names to bottom out if semis start truly getting an arse whuppin' and the potential of it is very much there.
NVDA, AVGO, TSM, etc, will be last.
Market is so screwed...NVDA gave up all it's ema's, huge engulfing daily. I went all cash, almost all cash, in everything last Friday.
Not sure but we could see a technical bear market this year.
Not sure but we could see a technical bear market this year.
Market rolling hard....Qs to $492 quickly it seems. That's the Trump win gap up from Nov. I really think we are headed for a bear market. I kind of kicking myself I didn't put on some $580 May puts on Friday or even Monday...I don't really like shorting, prefer to stay out of the way.
