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Misc Stock Market

superjames1992 said:
Could be, although the tariffs could just as easily be canceled tomorrow. The one consistent thing about POTUS is that he’s inconsistent with this stuff.
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Tarrifs are here to stay and I think he will do something drastic with Federal taxes. The flat tax is compelling actually. Regardless the market would have a 10-12% correction anyways the next couple of months. I think this year at best will be flat in the market and it needs it.

My plan this year will be to buy oversold conditions aggressively and get out quick.
 
Just noticed that SPY/Qs kept dropping hard after hours yesterday...SPY was down below $599...it had given up all of the gains from Tues-Friday mid-day in a couple of hours.

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KyloG said:
Tarrifs are here to stay and I think he will do something drastic with Federal taxes. The flat tax is compelling actually. Regardless the market would have a 10-12% correction anyways the next couple of months. I think this year at best will be flat in the market and it needs it.

My plan this year will be to buy oversold conditions aggressively and get out quick.
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This is why I had been loading SPY puts this week. It felt like markets weren't taking Trump for his word that they would be implemented. I kept reading "they're a negotiating tool". But I remember the steel tariff on Canada in 2018 and the trade wars with China during his first term. I think he's trying to make a statement early on this time.

If I had to make a guess, we finish 2025 down about 5%. And it will be a roller coaster along the way.
 
I think (it's a guess) that Intel is undervalued if there is validity to large tariffs on Taiwan, Malaysia, etc.

They've had some problems with consumer level CPU issues over the last year, but they are setup to produce moreso in the USA vs others.

If they could get their driver crap together, they can and would start to fill a hole left in consumer GPU markets by NVIDIAs complete focus on AI.

I'd assume they may be turned to moreso as an actual producer of everyday chips/software/tech that the average person needs on a daily basis.

Word on the street is they have a new CEO incoming.

Or, I could be dead wrong and Intel dont take this opportunity to thrive.
 
Nerman said:
This is why I had been loading SPY puts this week. It felt like markets weren't taking Trump for his word that they would be implemented. I kept reading "they're a negotiating tool". But I remember the steel tariff on Canada in 2018 and the trade wars with China during his first term. I think he's trying to make a statement early on this time.

If I had to make a guess, we finish 2025 down about 5%. And it will be a roller coaster along the way.
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Yeah...April SPY puts probably print like crazy. Maybe the 580's....what did yo do?
 
ChrisAMB said:
Which is not good for business. I've seen internal data provided by a well-respected firm forecasting 8% unemployment for 9/30/26 should tariffs and proposed federal spending cuts go through. That would be an extraordinary amount of job losses (4-5 million) but certainly plausible. Proposed federal workforce reductions would get us to 6% alone.

I don't intend to fully bail on the market but ya never know. My industry is forecasting 5% or so growth this year but front loaded because so much has been brought forward since the election to prepare for the uncertainty. At some point it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.
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If his first term is any indication, he likely won’t fully follow through on the threats or the targets of the tariffs will fold eventually and the tariffs will be lifted. And there is truth that said tariffs will hurt Mexico and Canada more than us, but it’ll hurt us all to some extent. I remember when being conservative meant you were pro-free trade.
 
Be careful if you're exposed to transportation stocks. They've done well post container crisis but I have my concerns with the tariffs now supposedly "official." Cross border flow (both ways) with Canada and Mexico is a huge business. If the Greenland issue comes back up, keep in mind that Maersk (Danish Co.) handles about 18% of US seaborne shipping. Imports and exports.

Domestically durable goods will probably slow down if 2018-2019 is any indication. The last round of tariffs didn't lead to US companies expanding to meet the market, they simply sold less for more and durable goods manufacturing especially suffered.

Sort of related, Intel is an interesting stock. They seem to have had an epiphany after Biden & Co. nearly yanked their CHIPS funding because they were so far behind on the Ohio facilities. There's been a lot of turmoil but when that's up and running under Intel Foundry (will still be 51% owned by mama Intel) I would expect them to pick up on the manufacturing side. OEMs have been hesitant to use them for cutting edge stuff because Intel also designs their own chips. Once Intel Foundry is spun out (not really spun out but will have a corporate firewall to the mothership) the price may very well turn around.
 
Wow. No more American alcohol on shelves in Nova Scotia. Edit: British Columbia is removing it as well but against Republican states.
 
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KyloG said:
Limit down tomorrow night.

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Immediate retaliatory tariff of 25% on $35 Billion worth of goods with another $125 Billion in 21 days. Trudeau is a short timer but they aren't messing around. He was also very coy about "other" non tariff actions. Normally reserved Canadian media are beating the drum of cutting off the roughly 33TWH of electricity we import. Michigan and nearly all of New York and New England are reliant on these power imports. That won't happen short of armed conflict but it's absolutely a new day in North America. We haven't seen this level of action since before WW2 and that's no exaggeration. I don't think markets will panic per se, but will 100% need to price in a new reality.
 
sheesh. I stray from politics these days but they look absolutely sick. And I don’t think placing tariffs on these countries was a blind shot in the dark. The AI approved when they ran it through the algorithm. Gonna be an interesting year. Probably just an expensive game of chicken.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
sheesh. I stray from politics these days but they look absolutely sick. And I don’t think placing tariffs on these countries was a blind shot in the dark. The AI approved when they ran it through the algorithm. Gonna be an interesting year. Probably just an expensive game of chicken.

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In what world is cutting off all our friends beneficial to us…. Your wallet will absorb a lot of it too
 
LickWx said:
In what world is cutting off all our friends beneficial to us…. Your wallet will absorb a lot of it too
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Yeah, the much longer-term winner here is going to be China.

I suspect these tariffs get quietly walked back in a couple months, but these country's trust in the US has just been shattered, probably permanently. It's going to lead to these countries diversifying, and China is the big alternative they can look to.

TL/DR: if I felt like I could trust China, I'd be buying up China stocks right now to hold for the next few years.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, the much longer-term winner here is going to be China.

I suspect these tariffs get quietly walked back in a couple months, but these country's trust in the US has just been shattered, probably permanently. It's going to lead to these countries diversifying, and China is the big alternative they can look to.

TL/DR: if I felt like I could trust China, I'd be buying up China stocks right now to hold for the next few years.
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Agreed…China will be the winner and probably where you want money invested the next few years or until Trump is impeached. It’s fairly clear Trump/Elon are trying to destroy this country.
 
KyloG said:
Agreed…China will be the winner and probably where you want money invested the next few years or until Trump is impeached. It’s fairly clear Trump/Elon are trying to destroy this country.
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Our big stick keeps growing smaller. Things like sanctions we impose mean nothing now, countries have found ways around them and continue to thrive. Now we impose tariffs, countries will find ways around those and continue to thrive. Our big stick keeps growing smaller and smaller because when you beat someone upside the head so much it breaks…
 
LickWx said:
Our big stick keeps growing smaller. Things like sanctions we impose mean nothing now, countries have found ways around them and continue to thrive. Now we impose tariffs, countries will find ways around those and continue to thrive. Our big stick keeps growing smaller and smaller because when you beat someone upside the head so much it breaks…
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I've never seen a president act like he has in my lifetime...and he is getting manipulated by Elon the oligarch. This is something out of a movie. He's acting like an emperer. I am leaning towards going all cash in my retirement accounts. I haven't done that since 2007-2008 financial crisis. I didn't even do that during the covid crash. I wasn't bullish on this year giving us a 15-20% SPY return but I also didn't think we would enter a bear market...but now I'm not sure.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I fully expect the crash in the next 6 months unless the tariff gets reverted in the next 30 days. The economy was on a thread already but this is going to tank US businesses too. This is our high point.
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Markets up 50% in 14 months. That alone isn’t sustainable. Irrationality is at an all time high. Something had to give and it looks like it will. I think we’re going to be fine.
 
The economic situation with Canada is a lot more complicated than it appears at first. Automotive stocks will be hammered no matter what and that's usually where people go to first.

Energy and raw materials is where they have us over a barrel. In the midwest and NE, refineries are set up to process the heavy sour oil coming from Canada. There is no real method to replace that with cheaper Venezuelan or Mexican heavy oil. The Gulf Coast refineries also process this oil but with a much larger percentage of light oil from Texas, etc. Midwest and NE refineries can cut with a slightly larger percentage of light oil but not much. It's a years-long process to convert these facilities and if they chose to do that output would be reduced during the changeover. We'd be long into the next administration before that would be finished.

So in reality we're going to keep buying their oil but now at a premium. We also import a decent amount of gasoline from their New Brunswick refinery since the Colonial Pipeline is full and cannot move more product. That will also face a tariff. How much gas prices go up is anyone's guess.

Households in the upper midwest and especially the Northeast will see higher electric rates if this continues on for a long period, but not immediately as utilities are limited in their ability to raise rates short notice to residential customers. Commercial customers (especially those stuck with spot pricing) will feel the pinch immediately though, raising the costs for their products.

I look back to the last time he was in office and how the markets reacted, and there was a light at the end of the tunnel almost immediately because the end goal was to renegotiate NAFTA. This time I just don't know what the way out will be as he's said in no uncertain terms there's "nothing Canada can do" to prevent the tariffs. That is what worries me about these transportation and transportation-adjacent stocks. With seemingly no off ramp the market, and by extension the broader economy is at risk.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Markets up 50% in 14 months. That alone isn’t sustainable. Irrationality is at an all time high. Something had to give and it looks like it will. I think we’re going to be fine.
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The business cycle was set aside after the GFC in favor of monetary policy and financialization. It has artificially inflated assets prices with no sustained bear market. It has been abnormal by historical record and it can't/won't continue indefinitely.
 
Crytpo getting hit today...BTC looks fairly ugly. So many piled into thinking Trump/Elon is taking BTC to the moon.

Crypto is just a collection of peoples money hoping someone else is dumb enough to put money in higher. I think that's called a ponzi scheme...the world has essentially legalized a way to rip people off.

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KyloG said:
Crytpo getting hit today...BTC looks fairly ugly. So many piled into thinking Trump/Elon is taking BTC to the moon.

Crypto is just a collection of peoples money hoping someone else is dumb enough to put money in higher. I think that's called a ponzi scheme...the world has essentially legalized a way to rip people off.

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You are right. It’s a game of hot potato for rich adults. But the stock market is ultimately the same thing. I mean some of the good stocks pay dividends but other than that what do you really own? Nothing. It’s all pretty gross but it works. For now at least
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You are right. It’s a game of hot potato for rich adults. But the stock market is ultimately the same thing. I mean some of the good stocks pay dividends but other than that what do you really own? Nothing. It’s all pretty gross but it works. For now at least
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The crypto lovers use that arguement...but investing in companies that sells goods/services is very different. And like you said, the great companies pay dividends.
 
KyloG said:
Crytpo getting hit today...BTC looks fairly ugly. So many piled into thinking Trump/Elon is taking BTC to the moon.

Crypto is just a collection of peoples money hoping someone else is dumb enough to put money in higher. I think that's called a ponzi scheme...the world has essentially legalized a way to rip people off.

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You didn’t buy Melania coin or Trump coin? Smh!
 
Not expecting much buying...the SPY just tagged all times highs on Friday, it's not like we are oversold. Tech has essentially doubled over the past 2 years. But, for now 20700-21000 has seen a lot of support so until we get a close under that we will see dip buys. Its a clear line in the sand and everyone looking at the same chart.

Would be stunning if that holds over the next couple of weeks. We know tax selling hasn't really started.

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KyloG said:
I've never seen a president act like he has in my lifetime...and he is getting manipulated by Elon the oligarch. This is something out of a movie. He's acting like an emperer. I am leaning towards going all cash in my retirement accounts. I haven't done that since 2007-2008 financial crisis. I didn't even do that during the covid crash. I wasn't bullish on this year giving us a 15-20% SPY return but I also didn't think we would enter a bear market...but now I'm not sure.
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As in no 401k contributions?
 
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