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Misc Stock Market

Q's looks rough. Fed is going to speak this market to new lows, everytime they open there mouth it's hike to 7%...hike until 2024. All stuff we know isn't true but they don't want the market up.

Q's almost back to the June lows.

Screen Shot 2022-11-29 at 11.29.09 AM.png
 
So, Chicago PMI is in severe contraction based on what we got this morning, yet I'm supposed to believe the Fed is being 100% truthful when Powell comes out to look to set the tone before the blackout period. ? ? ?

They are a few more soft economic data prints and another softer CPI away from possibly being ignored.
 
Only 127K jobs added per ADP. Low quits. Fewer openings. Record tech layoffs. Will probably cascade to other sectors in January. Fed 75bps hike likely after GDP numbers.
 
severestorm said:
Only 127K jobs added per ADP. Low quits. Fewer openings. Record tech layoffs. Will probably cascade to other sectors in January. Fed 75bps hike likely after GDP numbers.
Click to expand...

Might have a very different opinion shortly after Powell speaks, but for now at least...no.

My concern is that this event is like Jackson Hole though to look to jack financial condition tightness up and if so then, I'm not so sure.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Might have a very different opinion shortly after Powell speaks, but for now at least...no.

My concern is that this event is like Jackson Hole though to look to jack financial condition tightness up and if so then, I'm not so sure.
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Yup. I just don't understand why companies don't increase inventories to pre-pandemic levels. This is a major part of the inflation issue. It's not because too many people have jobs. Sounds like the blame is placed on the workers and not the current system.
 
severestorm said:
Yup. I just don't understand why companies don't increase inventories to pre-pandemic levels. This is a major part of the inflation issue. It's not because too many people have jobs. Sounds like the blame is placed on the workers and not the current system.
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The -100k manufacturing jobs in the ADP report says it all. Only thing the Fed's done this year is stifle investment that can help with the issue and yet plenty of folks still have laser focus on inflation.

I'd slightly favor the discussion of 2023 being a nasty recession instead of inflation, in which, we'll be at 2% core PCE or below because of it. Then my hope afterwards is that the focus will be on building up supply chains so we can avoid having to rely on China so much.

Inflation likely remains at least slightly elevated for a lot of this decade. A large block of retirees, energy issues because of bad policy, and the need to reshore are why.

Reason why I'm at only slight instead of great is the optimist in me wants to think a reckoning is coming in the next few months. Don't think cuts are coming too soon, but maybe the data winds up leading us to 1 more and done.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The -100k manufacturing jobs in the ADP report says it all. Only thing the Fed's done this year is stifle investment that can help with the issue and yet plenty of folks still have laser focus on inflation.

I'd slightly favor the discussion of 2023 being a nasty recession instead of inflation, in which, we'll be at 2% core PCE or below because of it. Then my hope afterwards is that the focus will be on building up supply chains so we can avoid having to rely on China so much.

Inflation likely remains at least slightly elevated for a lot of this decade. A large block of retirees, energy issues because of bad policy, and the need to reshore are why.

Reason why I'm at only slight instead of great is the optimist in me wants to think a reckoning is coming in the next few months. Don't think cuts are coming too soon, but maybe the data winds up leading us to 1 more and done.
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The thing is, how many people have to loose their livelihood in order to bring inflation down? I think this comes down to more supply needed. The more supply the less dollars chasing a particular product. Forcing people out of work will be a bandaid on a bigger systemic issue. Inflation will skyrocket again. Companies that thought they could raise prices to compensate for lack of sales with already overvalued merchandise are about to have a reckoning. Things are not built for the lower middle class or poor anymore.
 
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Not sure if JP is on drugs but he completely went from ultra hawkish to uber dovish...

FED'S POWELL: THE FED HAS BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE, BUT IT DOES NOT FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO CRASH THE ECONOMY AND CLEAN UP AFTERWARDS.
 
KyloG said:
Not sure if JP is on drugs but he completely went from ultra hawkish to uber dovish...

FED'S POWELL: THE FED HAS BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE, BUT IT DOES NOT FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO CRASH THE ECONOMY AND CLEAN UP AFTERWARDS.
Click to expand...
Midterms are over. Time to bring the market back up.
 
KyloG said:
Not sure if JP is on drugs but he completely went from ultra hawkish to uber dovish...

FED'S POWELL: THE FED HAS BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE, BUT IT DOES NOT FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO CRASH THE ECONOMY AND CLEAN UP AFTERWARDS.
Click to expand...
@GeorgiaGirl talked with Powell before ? But I think Elizabeth Warren's comments made a difference here. Congress is also about to force a end to the Rail strike too. Hopefully they are going to get the supply chain back up and running to Pre-Pandemic levels.
 
KyloG said:
Not sure if JP is on drugs but he completely went from ultra hawkish to uber dovish...

FED'S POWELL: THE FED HAS BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE, BUT IT DOES NOT FEEL IT APPROPRIATE TO CRASH THE ECONOMY AND CLEAN UP AFTERWARDS.
Click to expand...

lol...Powell killed a narrative that I'm sure many were wondering about (that the hawks in the Fed would like a nasty recession)...including myself with the commentary from Bullard we've recently heard. I was definitely wrong about today...maybe I need to continue to lean pessimistic.

I just have to wonder if he's axing the nasty recession narrative too late because that Chicago PMI this morning...aye yi yi.

Seems like we're in a manufacturing recession (similar to late 2018)...more evidence to it would be if the ISM manufacturing number tomorrow comes in below 50.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
lol...Powell killed a narrative that I'm sure many were wondering about (that the hawks in the Fed would like a nasty recession)...including myself with the commentary from Bullard we've recently heard. I was definitely wrong about today...maybe I need to continue to lean pessimistic.

I just have to wonder if he's axing the nasty recession narrative too late because that Chicago PMI this morning...aye yi yi.

Seems like we're in a manufacturing recession (similar to late 2018)...more evidence to it would be if the ISM manufacturing number tomorrow comes in below 50.
Click to expand...
yup, recession already here

FimxD_XX0AImdx-
 
Perfect tag of SPY trendline resistance. Now the fun begins...where are the buyers going to come from to push through that.

SPY-01_Dec_2022_10_44.png
 
100k+ dropped out out of the workforce. Length of unemployment is increasing. Number of discouraged workers are increasing. FED's mission of destroying livelihoods is succeeding.
 
apple with a cold blooded bull trap...broke that resistance line and than vomitted after. That was the 5th rejection of that trendline.

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Tough market...day 4 down on SPY, PPI on Friday, CPI next Tuesday. Market gave back the gains from JPowells conf last week where he said hikes would be slowing and he wouldn't destroy the economy with rate hikes. Now, if market gives up the CPI gains from Nov then market is in big big trouble. That would say market knows inflation isn't the problem that we are headed for recession and in deep trouble.


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