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GeorgiaGirl

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NDX has me concerned about a blowoff top but this says that I maybe shouldn't be:

CyclesFan on Twitter: "$NDX reached the 1.5 extension of the September correction today. It's up 9 days in a row now. The last 3 times that happened were streaks of 10-12 TD and all of them were months before any IT top. Tomorrow is NFP Friday so the target is obviously the 1.618 extension at 16514. https://t.co/56IkO08lsy" / Twitter

It needs to cool off though. I don't even want anything crazy, -3% would suffice before continuation.

You could say that for everything right now honestly.
 

KyloG

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NDX has me concerned about a blowoff top but this says that I maybe shouldn't be:

CyclesFan on Twitter: "$NDX reached the 1.5 extension of the September correction today. It's up 9 days in a row now. The last 3 times that happened were streaks of 10-12 TD and all of them were months before any IT top. Tomorrow is NFP Friday so the target is obviously the 1.618 extension at 16514. https://t.co/56IkO08lsy" / Twitter

It needs to cool off though. I don't even want anything crazy, -3% would suffice before continuation.

You could say that for everything right now honestly.

Will be interesting if this plays out as wave 5. It matches up with measured moved equal to wave 1....but that would mean mid-Nov into Dec would see a significant correction. I just don't see that happening. Fed said no rate raises for a long long time...the taper news is out of the way. Jobs are great. 10yr is dropping. PFE just had great news on their oral therapy for covid. It's nothing but great news all around.

Indexes are super extended but there is no compelling reason to sell now...VIX is really low at 15.

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GeorgiaGirl

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The Fed announced tapering and we had a strong jobs report and TNX is going to close the week below 1.5.

Perfect...lmao. The opposite of what anybody would've expected. Calling for it to range for the rest of the year probably ends up being right.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Will be interesting if this plays out as wave 5. It matches up with measured moved equal to wave 1....but that would mean mid-Nov into Dec would see a significant correction. I just don't see that happening. Fed said no rate raises for a long long time...the taper news is out of the way. Jobs are great. 10yr is dropping. PFE just had great news on their oral therapy for covid. It's nothing but great news all around.

Indexes are super extended but there is no compelling reason to sell now...VIX is really low at 15.

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I'm loving what's going on with TNX during the past couple days (as it's what you wouldn't expect) but to be fair, it's a bit more complicated than TNX falls and the market goes up. It's more about the speed the bond market moves at and it's moving a bit too fast for my liking, but I figure that if it doesn't break the high of the year and ranges mostly in between about around 1.4 (maybe 1.3) to 1.6 for the rest of the year, that's perfect...lmao.

Means that everyone that had TNX to 2% by end of the year is going to get it wrong (and there are a lot of people on that side, so it shouldn't surprise if that's the case).

Back on the main topic, it is interesting that you can count 5 waves on NDX (I don't do Elliot Wave, but I've seen others that do), but a more significant pullback doesn't make much sense here. A breather does and I want one before the blowoff top idea does make the most sense (frankly we're already close...lol).
 

KyloG

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I'm loving what's going on with TNX during the past couple days (as it's what you wouldn't expect) but to be fair, it's a bit more complicated than TNX falls and the market goes up. It's more about the speed the bond market moves at and it's moving a bit too fast for my liking, but I figure that if it doesn't break the high of the year and ranges mostly in between about around 1.4 (maybe 1.3) to 1.6 for the rest of the year, that's perfect...lmao.

Means that everyone that had TNX to 2% by end of the year is going to get it wrong (and there are a lot of people on that side, so it shouldn't surprise if that's the case).

Back on the main topic, it is interesting that you can count 5 waves on NDX (I don't do Elliot Wave, but I've seen others that do), but a more significant pullback doesn't make much sense here. A breather does and I want one before the blowoff top idea does make the most sense (frankly we're already close...lol).

Bonds up and TNX down interesting…some must think economy/growth will be slowing. Market is parabolic ATH’s. Doesn’t quite align.
 

KyloG

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Geez I hope this isn't true. Can you imagine if housing prices fall, stock market rolls over...Fed can't afford either of those to happen. They actually need inflation to stay high so housing prices stay high so people can keep borrowing on there homes to prop up the stock market.

 

GeorgiaGirl

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Not a fan of the way the VIX has been behaving in the past few sessions.

It's usually up on Mondays because of the weekend effect but even VIX futures are up now I believe (I don't know the direct way of looking at them, but I know UVXY opened lower, which tracks the VIX futures, and had been going higher).

Usually a canary in the coal mine for some volatility in the near future if it and stocks are up.
 

Lickwx

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They want high inflation.
That’s how they afford to pay our debt down . Despite all that they thought it a good idea to pass a trillion dollar package and push for even more . I got a big giant book on stocks checked out from the library . I’m about to figure out what to invest in when it all collapses .
 

Rain Cold

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That’s how they afford to pay our debt down . Despite all that they thought it a good idea to pass a trillion dollar package and push for even more . I got a big giant book on stocks checked out from the library . I’m about to figure out what to invest in when it all collapses .
Shoot me a PM when you figure it out! 😁
 

KyloG

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They want high inflation.

They are in quite a pickle. They don't want higher energy prices nor higher auto prices but they do want high housing prices. They can't afford to have housing fall again, we saw what happened in 08/09. Spending will go down if that occurs and now we are talking recession. This is quite a problem they are in. And they won't raise rates until after the elections next Nov. I am sure Biden is getting assurances from whoever he is going to nominate to take over for Powell. Brainard is the most dovish Fed governor...that isn't a coincidence.
 

Lickwx

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They are in quite a pickle. They don't want higher energy prices nor higher auto prices but they do want high housing prices. They can't afford to have housing fall again, we saw what happened in 08/09. Spending will go down if that occurs and now we are talking recession. This is quite a problem they are in. And they won't raise rates until after the elections next Nov. I am sure Biden is getting assurances from whoever he is going to nominate to take over for Powell. Brainard is the most dovish Fed governor...that isn't a coincidence.
They will hurt us more the longer they wait . Stop playing politics and raise it already . Sometimes got to walk through the mud to make things better. Housing is going to fall and it won’t look good when it does .
 

Rain Cold

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They are in quite a pickle. They don't want higher energy prices nor higher auto prices but they do want high housing prices. They can't afford to have housing fall again, we saw what happened in 08/09. Spending will go down if that occurs and now we are talking recession. This is quite a problem they are in. And they won't raise rates until after the elections next Nov. I am sure Biden is getting assurances from whoever he is going to nominate to take over for Powell. Brainard is the most dovish Fed governor...that isn't a coincidence.
To be honest, I don't think they're in a pickle at all. They know what they have been doing and what they are doing. They have a mandate to create financial and economic conditions that result in the extraction of wealth from as many as people possible to be transferred to the wealthy elite class as efficiently as possible. And they've executed this to perfection. You could never do that here from a government directive but you can certainly do it via the central bank. They want people to feel the pain. Mission accomplished.
 

KyloG

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To be honest, I don't think they're in a pickle at all. They know what they have been doing and what they are doing. They have a mandate to create financial and economic conditions that result in the extraction of wealth from as many as people possible to be transferred to the wealthy elite class as efficiently as possible. And they've executed this to perfection. You could never do that here from a government directive but you can certainly do it via the central bank. They want people to feel the pain. Mission accomplished.

Agreed 100%...either they are complete idiots or they are doing exactly what you stated above.
 

KyloG

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Markets real heavy after the China Evergrande news...couple that with the inflation reports its getting ugly.

Tech has been trading in this channel for past year+...each time it's touched the top of that channel it's sold off hard to the bottom....we shall see if it bucks the trend this time.

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KyloG

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She dumping, boys! Hold on to your 401k’s! She about to get rough!
Maybe but a what, 3% correction from ATHs isn't exactly dumping

If you started investing/trading after 2010 all you know is that markets/stocks only go up and to buy any dip with both hands. Old guys like me (45) lost a lot of money in dotcom crash and financial crisis. That's why these young bucks are kicking our butts in returns, they have no fear and always keep buying buying buying. Experience is a detriment right now...
 

KyloG

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Bitcoin just waterfalled and dropped almost 10% in a couple of hours and then the young bucks come flying in buying any dip. Taking a break from crypto...it's been a good year and I am getting frustrated. Today hurt.

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metwannabe

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If you started investing/trading after 2010 all you know is that markets/stocks only go up and to buy any dip with both hands. Old guys like me (45) lost a lot of money in dotcom crash and financial crisis. That's why these young bucks are kicking our butts in returns, they have no fear and always keep buying buying buying. Experience is a detriment right now...
True, they only see it short term not long term investing (I'm new myself, jumped in last March at bottom after Covid hit) but still I'm an investor and not a day trader. I guess my point was if it's 401K your worried about, take a look at the big picture, it's still doing really good right now.
 

KyloG

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True, they only see it short term not long term investing (I'm new myself, jumped in last March at bottom after Covid hit) but still I'm an investor and not a day trader. I guess my point was if it's 401K your worried about, take a look at the big picture, it's still doing really good right now.

Yeah, my long term accounts are great....the S&P is up 120% over the past 5 years. We can keep that up will be retired by 60.
 

VegasEagle

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That’s how they afford to pay our debt down . Despite all that they thought it a good idea to pass a trillion dollar package and push for even more . I got a big giant book on stocks checked out from the library . I’m about to figure out what to invest in when it all collapses .
Alcohol
 
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