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Misc Stock Market

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Oh well there's your sell off


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NG news from DJ Newswires this afternoon regarding tomorrow's weekly EIA NG storage report

03/09 01:57p CST DJ Natural Gas Ends Unchanged Ahead of Storage Date -- Market
Talk

1457 ET - Natural gas prices finish a relatively mellow trading session
virtually unchanged, ending down a tiny 0.02% at $4.526/mmBtu. Bullish
sentiment in the market last week due to Europe's energy crisis and a military
conflict between Russia and Ukraine has mostly vanished in recent days as
investors decide the domestic gas market will remain insulated. Attention will
turn to a weekly EIA storage report due tomorrow morning. A WSJ survey
forecasts a 119B cubic feet withdrawal that may be the final triple-digit
decline of the season and would be a bullish result compared to the average
89-bcf decline. ([email protected])

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Noting what I bolded: These weekly US NG storage changes are almost all net withdrawals from Nov-Mar because total US NG demand is highest when heating demand is highest. So, on average, the highest draws are in January/midwinter. The draws are higher/lower (bullish/bearish) when the winter is colder/warmer. As we get toward late March and the US warms, the draws approach zero and soon after change to net weekly injections for the vast majority of weeks through October. During summer, especially when hot, these net injections drop and can get quite low if hot enough (i.e., bullish). That's because NG is also used as an electricity generating fuel and electricity generation needs rise with increased AC usage. Or if the summer is mild, the injections stay large (bearish). Thus, NG has always been a market most heavily influenced by changes in expected US wx. But Us wx isn't the only factor, of course. Now Europe has become a bit more of an influence than before due to a large increase in exports to there (LNG). However, US wx typically still trumps all.
 
Our markets are such a clown show right now...this is the intraday on SPY....straight down 4%...straight up 3%....back down 3% and than today straight up 3%.

I guess looking at the chart...nice W pattern. But dang, this is trading like AMC/GME.

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GaWx said:
But Us wx isn't the only factor, of course. Now Europe has become a bit more of an influence than before due to a large increase in exports to there (LNG). However, US wx typically still trumps all.
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Careful what you say ...
 
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KyloG said:
Our markets are such a clown show right now...this is the intraday on SPY....straight down 4%...straight up 3%....back down 3% and than today straight up 3%.

I guess looking at the chart...nice W pattern. But dang, this is trading like AMC/GME.

View attachment 115143
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Sure looks like a healthy market. ?
 
superjames1992 said:
Just bought a 336P QQQ put for Friday. I am a degen. But how do we not go down when CPI comes out tomorrow?
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Ended the day up 8% on this contract, hoping to unload early tomorrow. I need a win after today’s commodity slaughter.
 
May regret it but dumped my VIX today, purchased 1/10 and made over 20K in less than 2 months. Working to diversify but still holding longs in NG and mids in Wheat. Also got me some Nickel last week. Still looking for some good mid Fertz to park the VIX gains in.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Dont like this one bit. Just another huge step toward ...

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Get ready for a social credit system like China is doing with the digital Yuan also. If you are someone who is not "socially accepted", your transaction's will be blocked. your assets will be frozen. All these sanctions on Russia are a prelude to individuals rights attacks in the US. Canadians took a step ahead when they froze bank accounts and seized assets with the trucker protest. Nobody has to believe me, but don't complain that you were surprised or aghast when it does happen.
 
WeatherNC said:
May regret it but dumped by VIX today, purchased 1/10 and made over 20K in less than 2 months. Working to diversify but still holding longs in NG and mids in Wheat. Also got me some Nickel last week. Still looking for some good mid Fertz to park the VIX gains in.
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I assume you already realize this being a NG investor. But for those who aren't aware, NG's largest determining factor over the next 5 months will likely be how hot of a summer it is in the E half of the US. It is already expected to be at least slightly AN and thus hot/humid for much of that area. But the key is will it end up even hotter than expectations? If it is extra hot, summer storage injections will be smaller than expected and thus leave storage lower for next winter/bullish. But if the summer is milder than expected (say near the 30 year normal), NG prices would likely drop quite a bit. So, any predictions for how hot a summer the E half of the US (back to TX) will have?
 
severestorm said:
Get ready for a social credit system like China is doing with the digital Yuan also. If you are someone who is not "socially accepted", your transaction's will be blocked. your assets will be frozen. All these sanctions on Russia are a prelude to individuals rights attacks in the US. Canadians took a step ahead when they froze bank accounts and seized assets with the trucker protest. Nobody has to believe me, but don't complain that you were surprised or aghast when it does happen.
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This is 100% where things will head. It's a stone cold lock. And it's very obvious.
 
lot of chatter that we have seen the bottom in the market. Previous market reversals had big catalysts to trigger reversal…

2020: Govt stimulus, Fed QE, 0% rates
2018: Fed Rate Cuts
2009: Bailouts, QE, Fed rate cuts

We are about to get the opposite…QT, rate hikes into record inflation. And we are supposed to be think we have seen bottom? ?
 
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