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Misc Stock Market

Added some lotto SPY puts spread, $434/$430 for $.75. Just 5 for fun.

Which means SPY will probably close at $440. ?‍♂️

Added 3 more at $.85...boredom is always trouble and I never win short.

Its either going to be $400/loss or a great Friday.

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Yesterday will go down as an epic bear trip, many got shaken out, many shorts got trapped and now more panic buying.

SPY reclaimed the 50wema...everything is back to normal and the bull market resumes.

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Zero chance of no retracement next week . State of the union and fed meeting . I'm loading puts two weeks out before close * disclaimer not my chart
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Book it…if I buy puts…you should buy calls. I will never ever short again. Closed out the spread for 30 cents and a $400 loss. ?
 
Yesterday the markets ripped higher when the invasion started. Markets going to rip even higher when they negotiate. ?‍♂️

Buy the rip.

 
RSI trendline breaks out next week over 50. Can’t imagine going all year without SPY/Q’s seeing ATH’s.

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Yesterday the markets ripped higher when the invasion started. Markets going to rip even higher when they negotiate. ?‍♂️

Buy the rip.


They are ripping since everything in the market is directly or indirectly tied to petroleum in some respect, and our "sanctions" conspicuously ignored/excluded Russian oil, including continued imports to the US ...
 
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That is surprising but it is still 17-18% below the high of just a few months ago and bottoms are very hard to predict. Was the bottom this morning? If so, the full drop would be 23%.

Apparently the bottom may very well have been yesterday morning at -23% considering this recent ceasefire news. Was it looking bleak yesterday morning? Yep, as it often is near a bottom. Did I act on it and start to nibble? Unfortunately no.
 
I'm not overly wild about the way this day has begun though. Call it a hunch, but it looks like catch up mode by the Dow.

Whoops.

The last time that I was this surprised by a move by the Dow, it continued for another 5% (minor dip in between, but it mostly moved higher) until those Fed minutes caused a major rout in January. Even if it didn't close the way it did, the way it was behaving after 11 AM suggests continuation for at least another day.

Now maybe we see some more major problems come up this weekend and that won't happen. I'm not fully confident here.

But what I do know is I should have acted on my hunch (as I was thinking about putting on some UDOW yesterday) instead of wussing out.

Think the Nasdaq is probably going to test 14188 again soon (the broad version), and at that point, I might put on some SARK, and I'm sure if I do, it'll be the time where my hunch doesn't work out, which I wouldn't mind LOL (my opinion is that the Nasdaq isn't back in a decent spot unless it closes above that level on a weekly basis, as that is the late winter/April ATH from last year).
 
I think it is more that the worst news was in prices as of yesterday morning. It takes guts and lots of luck or skill to buy near a bottom. It never feels safe.
Yeah, I’m just joking, haha. I think the news that sanctions were going to be comparatively weak and largely exclude energy helped a lot, too. Still, things could turn south with this war (pipelines getting blown up, fears of NATO intervention) that could send things south again.
 
If a nuclear war started, SPY would jump 5% in the 15-30 minutes before the NYSE was wiped off the map. ?

War = ? apparently.
I still don’t understand why the markets ripped so hard when covid hit. It sold off hard but then Q’s ripped 25% higher than it’s pre-covid highs. We still didn’t know how bad covid was going to be, the world was shutdown. This doesn’t make sense but our markets behave this way time after time.

This is why I think the markets headed for ATH’s in the next 6-8 weeks.

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