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GeorgiaGirl

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There's a decent chance (by decent, I'd put it at 60%+) that "this" is the time they've actually been done in, but given the regimen we're in I'd still hold off and wait a little while to call it.

The gauge I'd use is the gaps today, if they don't close by eom at the latest, and preferably sooner, my guess is they don't close until the fall, a couple months from here.

By "they've"=S&P/Dow.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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If oil and yields don't turn around and tech sells just a bit more than it has there's a really good chance that the SPX posts a -3 to -5% down day tomorrow.
 
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Made a couple hundred scalping AMC today and loaded some bottomed out (hopefully) trash small caps. Positioned decently but still mostly cash.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Today actually triggered a DeMark 13 buy signal in SPX, which was triggered on June 18th and followed by a 5%+ rally, but WTI Crude and yields are gonna need a loooootttt of work overnight for today to be a possible bottom.

Would really prefer that TNX snap back a bit and then start doing nothing again...I stopped watching that thing for a while to be honest but now it's acting crazy again.
 

metwannabe

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Time for the traditional one day vacuum followed by a multi-week snap-back to new ATHs. You can look at whatever index or whatever technical indicators you want, but that's the basic pattern. One day, that will change. But persistence has been paying out bigly.
I think that "one day" is still a year or 2 down the road, at least. Big money and government not gonna let it happen anytime soon, the sky ain't falling, yet
 

GeorgiaGirl

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What TNX does is pretty much all that’s going to matter for tomorrow.

Looked constructive for a bit of a snapback for a lot of the night but much less so of late. Still plenty of time to work on it though.

I kinda get the feeling you’re going to get more bond short margin calls though. Everybody big is short bonds and a margin call apparently already happened for sure earlier this month that caused a panic in Europe that bled over for part of the day. There’s a decent chance there were some this Monday as well.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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TNX ultimately didn’t do what was needed and is now going in the wrong direction. If there’s still a pop at open, it will likely be sold hard… probably a deep red day for many areas of the market.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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IWM and the Dow are flying this morning when the main reasons why they had been hit (IWM the hardest and the Dow in a catch up way yesterday) hasn't been repaired (which is the slide from TNX)...
 

GeorgiaGirl

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SPX has a shot at filling that gap down in one day which I really didn't think was possible in one day.

This market is insane.

Edit: Aaanndddd that gap's filled. Could easily be a one day thing but until proven otherwise, we should assume that we're still in the regimen that we've been in since late October (as that snapback was fairly fast as well)...several months ago.
 
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metwannabe

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Time for the traditional one day vacuum followed by a multi-week snap-back to new ATHs. You can look at whatever index or whatever technical indicators you want, but that's the basic pattern. One day, that will change. But persistence has been paying out bigly.
Nailed it
 

Rain Cold

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TNX ultimately didn’t do what was needed and is now going in the wrong direction. If there’s still a pop at open, it will likely be sold hard… probably a deep red day for many areas of the market.
-725 yesterday +549 today. Nice little bounce back in yields and crude also. You should demand a refund from those people who are keeping you focused on tnx and ark and things like that. They aren't doing a good job of looking at the big picture. The only thing that gives me a slight concern is bitcoin not participating. These other things are down for a few days and then snap back and lead or are up for a few days and then fall back and lag. A lot of these things used to be somewhat reliable back in the day. Now, the market is too easy to direct by key/big players, given the vast amount of indexing, corporate buybacks, monetary policy, and the prevalence of algos. They'll let it go when they're ready. Looks like they're not ready yet.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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That Netflix move isn't surprising because it's a stock that is attached to a fair amount of options trading, and stocks that are attached to options trading tend to move the most after earnings.

Also definitely isn't indicative of how the other mega Nasdaq stocks do. Now they might impress and have it not translate to the way their stock moves as QQQ has already had a heck of a move again into major tech earnings, but Netflix disappointed in April and everybody else did well...heck I'm pretty sure they disappointed in January but mooned because they teased buybacks and took all of the other mega Nasdaq stocks with them.

Btw, based off things that I've read, the bitcoin and stocks correlation stopped working earlier this year. It's an interesting sideshow unless it causes margin calls...which I suspect has been going on at times in the bond market lately (actually I'm pretty sure that was the main cause of what happened a week and a half ago as the bond market retraced that short squeeze) since there are many that are short bonds.

Edit: I do wonder if whether China pulling out of bitcoin is part of why this correlation has become busted.
 
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