Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It’s gonna really suck if I miss the Alabama Georgia game because of power being out.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc Sizzling Shenanigans: warm season whamby
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
- Status
If I had a dollar for every one of these images we've seen over the last several years from the 3k NAM, I'd retire a rich man
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,875
- Reaction score
- 12,250
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Whatever we pay to run it four times a day is too much
NCSNOW
Member
Lake Chatuge. Ga / NC Line. MUST SEE , espeacilly in Fall.
NCSNOW
Member
Worth It. Its the only way I get accumulating snow anymore. (Digital)
Bite your tongue
Show ignored content
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,875
- Reaction score
- 12,250
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I'm here to help
It’s so odd seeing all of this rain east, west, north, and it hasn’t rained in two months. It was pouring in Raleigh this morning.
I'm scared to post this in the storm thread, since you know, people won't like it with all the "super storm incoming" crowd hype.. but the NBM blend/charts I use have Atlanta gusting at only 36 mph during the peak.
Brent
Member
The highest I saw was 54 scrolling around three TV stations
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Dang. Does it even make it to Cat 1 at landfall ? Sounds super weak.
Brent
Member
Atlanta is still 6 hours inland... I mean it's gonna weaken a lot
It doesn't seem like the NWS is much higher than 50
Last edited:
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Yeah but I imagine the fact it's moving fast will help keep it stronger further inland.
That's the thing, the NBM is filtering out a bunch of crap and trying to take the best forecast it can. While the storm is a hurricane at landfall, the trajectory of ATL maybe not being on the east side is helping them out.
It doesn't matter, regardless, but just wanted to throw it out.. that some of these wind maps are absolutely horrible.
Brent
Member
Even at 140 mph after 12 hours about the time it takes to make it to Atlanta it should be in the 60-70 mph range and that would obviously be east of the center 
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
All of this is confusing. So the strongest winds will be on the east side and heaviest rain on the west side. Seems like the strongest winds would be in the area with the heaviest rain.
Brent
Member
Well some of the rain on the west side is gonna be indirect and not even from Helene tbh. The fact there's a front and an upper low will enhance it
We have the fly in the ointment with the ULL effects though.
Brent
Member
Opal had a 56 mph wind gust at the airport and they were on the east side then because the center was in Alabama
I think that's a fair analog as a worst case scenario
The NHCs point over Atlanta is only 35 mph. It goes from 120 to 35 mph in 12 hours... Even worse than that chart
I think that's a fair analog as a worst case scenario
The NHCs point over Atlanta is only 35 mph. It goes from 120 to 35 mph in 12 hours... Even worse than that chart
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I haven't seen Jimmy Hypocracy lately. Hope he's ok.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I am 135 miles due south of Atlanta so I imagine the winds here would be a little higher. But I would still be to the west of the center if the latest GFS is right.
I get home and expecting some humidity like there was the entire way home from RDU, but no, smells like a desert outside. The humidity should be well into the 90s right now like it is literally everywhere else, no, 75%.
HRRR is already cutting for tomorrow, as one would expect.
00z
03z
HRRR is already cutting for tomorrow, as one would expect.
00z
03z
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Maybe the Braves will get in a game after all tomorrow night.
Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. At least they won tonight.
Would be good if we cut totals at this point. Don't need major flooding but definitely need to break the drought.
One wonders why there are literally thunderstorms happening all over the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia, and there is still this bubble of dry heat over top of us. It is going to take no less then what is coming to penetrate it. Models are showing this frontal interaction tomorrow, but we saw what happened with the last storm, so it wouldn't at all surprise me to see it stay completely dry in some areas until the actual tropical system gets in here.
No doubt it's been way to dry so that may be a factor. Either way the heat is gone soon which is a relief.
Downeastnc
Member
It depends on a lot of things, I live 100 miles due west of Hatteras and 110 miles north of Wilmington and Morehead/Atlantic Beach is only 60 or so mile away and I have been in a bunch of hurricanes/TS and only had gust above 70 mph in 4 of them....typically those wind maps are always overdone by a decent bit, that said if the storm is moving fast enough I can see gust 75-100 happening in the first 6 hrs after landfall especially if the eyewall is strengthening coming in.
Cobb County is still reporting 66% humidity at 1AM, I don't even understand how that is physically possible with all the moisture in all directions.
Strange. It's 84% where I am.
With the storm moving at a whopping ~25 mph, the west side has weaker winds than a storm of the same strength in the same position to the east moving at a slower speed. I bet that has a lot do with these models keeping ATL winds capped at barely TS strength. So, whereas the 25 mph movement doesn’t allow for much weakening of the highest winds (on E side…like ATL was for Opal) and also causes higher winds on the E side due to the forward speed, that same fast movement keeps the W side winds from getting too high unless perhaps one is located immediately W of the center.
Yall be safe down there the rest of this week! That is a doozy of a storm coming up, I hope it's just rain and some breezes! I got my fingers crossed in Maine that minimal damage occurs! Take care!!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
As of this morning my official FFC forecast has me gusting to 70 at the peak now so that isn't helping the other case for weaker.
I mean you shouldn't be surprised. Not saying yet it's a non event. But wouldn't surprise me if more rain falls from the frontal interaction than the core of the storm itself. I get heat for downplaying events but that's usually what happens here.
What’s bad is how much Chris Justus hyped it up yesterday. We are to the point around here where it would be best to get no heads up and just see what happens the day of.
All the posters in GA now.
- Status