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Misc Sizzling Shenanigans: warm season whamby

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LickWx said:
More like Atlanta gets the mega 40 degree rain and upstate gets the mega 34 degree rain
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La Niña dawg. Cold air intrusions are so much better during Nina’s because the Aleutian ridge can sometimes go poleward. Unlike the El Niño GOAK trough
 
Heelyes said:
I'm concerned about Atlanta, nobody is posting from there. Hope everyone is ok
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Power just came back on me for in Lilburn, NE of Atlanta. It went out around 4 am. Lots of flooding around the area. Not a lot of noticeable wind damage in my immediate vicinity though.
 
Brent said:
As far as the snarky comments yesterday that's a totally different issue but yes at the end of the day I think there was way too much focus on Atlanta and not as much on how large the east side of this thing was... I mean there was surge on the Atlantic side of Florida from a storm in the Gulf. That is beyond crazy
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Are we talking focus from posters here or the NHC and NWS? I have yet to hear or read of an area that was impacted that wasn't warned appropriately.
 
Guys this is a weather enthusiast board, and as such, we are allowed to bash nhc for their embarrassing short range cone placement. It doesn’t mean it had much impact to normal people. Normal people won’t even care or realize how badly the storm was forecasted bc the impacts were so wide ranging and severe.

From a public standpoint, they did fine. But from an actual forecasting standpoint… a blind monkey could have done better and we know what. It’s honestly not even comprehensible for us. I have literally no idea what they were looking at to make such a bad track/cone yesterday in to last night.
 
rburrel2 said:
Guys this is a weather enthusiast board, and as such, we are allowed to bash nhc for their embarrassing short range cone placement. It doesn’t mean it had much impact to normal people. Normal people won’t even care or realize how badly the storm was forecasted bc the impacts were so wide ranging and severe.

From a public standpoint, they did fine. But from an actual forecasting standpoint… a blind monkey could have done better and we know what. It’s honestly not even comprehensible for us. I have literally no idea what they were looking at to make such a bad track/cone yesterday in to last night.
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Agreed, at least the NHC did put out a short statement on their forecast cone/track performance for Hurricane Helene.
 

WhiteBlaze

WhiteBlaze is an Appalachian Trail discussion forum and information site, it also contains an exclusive photo section of Appalachian Trail photos. Hiking the Appalachian Trail One Blaze at a Time. If you are preparing to hike the Appalachian Trail this is the site you want.
www.whiteblaze.net

The Georgia Appalachian Trail Club is reporting that the AT bridge over the River in Erwin has been washed away, and that Uncle Johnny’s Hostel is also gone.
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this is the bridge looking from Johnny's before it collapsed.
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It's late September. I don't know what kind of numbers of people would have stayed on the trail thinking they were going to be getting doable weather.

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News reports risk of excessive rainfall and increased risk of landslides.

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Unicoi County is one of the Flash Flood Emergency counties. Erwin is where patients and staff are on the roof of the Unicoi County Hospital.

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www.usatoday.com

'Dangerous rescue' saves dozens stranded on hospital roof amid Helene deluge

More than 50 people were stranded at Unicoi County Hospital in Erwin, Ballad Health said in a Friday afternoon statement.
www.usatoday.com
 

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crecre9 said:
Some folks need to go back and do some reading before they pop off and claim "MAJOR FAIL" by the NHC and NWS offices. Probably the same people claiming FAIL when they only get 2" instead of 4" of snow. Go back and look at the warning products issued ahead of time for Helene. People severely affected by the storm were warned days in advance. Stop paying so much attention to the cone and the prediction for the center of circulation. Hell, NHC even tells you on the product pages how to use each of the products.
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Yeah man. Putting Alabama in the forecast cone 24 hours out was a great forecast.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah man. Putting Alabama in the forecast cone 24 hours out was a great forecast.
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No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
 
crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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I'm trying to figure out why this bothers you so much. They messed up, simple as that.
 
crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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I was one of the only ones dead set on its actual track. The rest of the forum thought I was nuts for the most part.

Our local news and the president of Dominion Energy even says it was worse than they expected.

How does a president of a major energy company get caught off guard if they did such a great job?
 
CamWX said:
I'm trying to figure out why this bothers you so much. They messed up, simple as that.
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I'm bothered by the people who think the NHC and NWS are MASSIVE FAIL OMG THEY"RE TERRIBLE. For their own sake, they are fooling themselves and they may in the future mislead others to their detriment.
 
Reddit had a high-visibility (by people who were online) AT Helene post

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Lots of views of what they expected in the comments, and one trail report with a sunny outcome.



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Shawn said:
I was one of the only ones dead set on its actual track. The rest of the forum thought I was nuts for the most part.

Our local news and the president of Dominion Energy even says it was worse than they expected.

How does a president of a major energy company get caught off guard if they did such a great job?
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How was that president caught off guard? I can imagine because I see it on the local level. Local officials in businesses, utilities, and school systems make their own decisions based on NWS briefings. I often read the same briefings and then I have to wonder how the officials make some of the choices that they do. I can't speak to Dominion Energy, but there are all kinds of reasons they may have thought it wouldn't be so bad.
 
crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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We ARE talking about their cone. That's what you're not getting. You're arguing against something no one else is talking about. Did Augusta and Greenville have Tropical Storm warnings? Yes. Did they think the center would pass by them and they'd get the worst the NE quadrant had to offer? Absolutely not. The NHC had the track going through Atlanta which depicted the worst conditions being in Georgia. Most models (that we have access to) showed the track going East of their cone. The question is why did they have such a skinny cone and not expand it to at least show the possibility of the center heading toward SC so people would have been more aware of the possibility? Again, no one cares they were technically under a Tropical Storm warning. The public sees the cone and operates based on that guidance.
 
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Nerman said:
We ARE talking about their cone. That's what you're not getting. You're arguing against something no one else is talking about. Did Augusta and Greenville have Tropical Storm warnings? Yes. Did they think the center would pass by them and they'd get the worst the NE quadrant had to offer? Absolutely not. The NHC had the track going through Atlanta which depicted the worst conditions being in Georgia. Most models (that we have access to) showed the track going East of their cone. The question is why did they have such a skinny cone and not expand it to at least show the possibility of the center heading toward SC so people would have been more aware of the possibility? Again, no one cares they were technically under a Tropical Storm warning. The public sees the cone and operates based on that guidance.
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The NHC does not arbitrarily adjust the size of the cone. In order to make the cone, the NHC forecasts the storm at a specific location. Then a circle is drawn around that forecast position based on the historical average error at that forecast time frame. At 12 hours, that radius is 26 miles, at 24 hours 41 miles and so on. This particular storm made the cone look skinnier than usual because the 12 hour position was so far from the 24 hour position due to the incredible forward motion.

 
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