Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Areas affected...Portions of southwest VA into western NC and
northern SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch
88...
Valid 191740Z - 191945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 88. Damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the more
organized, long-lived storms.
DISCUSSION...The surface low across eastern TN continues to
translate northeast as it deepens, fostering an intensification of
the low-level wind field and associated low-level shear across
Tornado Watch 088. Continued northward advection of warm, moist air
into the region is fostering a gradual increase in instability, with
up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted across southeastern portions of the
watch. As the mid-level trough continues to approach from the west,
increasing deep-layer ascent is expected to contribute to an uptick
in convection in the next few hours.
Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that convection will
remain semi-discrete in nature. The more intense cells will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also
possible with storms that can sustain strong low-level rotation.
