Sun’s out guns out here in SE Wake. Let’s rock.
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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
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Brick Tamland
Guest
This reminds me of what happened with the April 2011 outbreak. Not saying it's going to be that bad, but I remember it rained that morning, too, and then the sun came out in the afternoon and all hell broke loose.
Jessy89
Member
I don’t know about tornado threat. But that line in Pickens county to my west. Looks bowed out some on radar. Probably has gusty winds with it at least
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This line of storms will probably get going when it's close to or east of the I-77 corridor where CAPE is much higher, etc.
Storm right next to me has a suspicious looking base
Big bolt of lightning outside my window just now!! And im on the very back edge of this thing! Grief!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah in the severe warning, not much happened but recently there was two major claps of thunder and more wind outside of the gust I commented on.
Would not recommend traveling west into the NC mountains...insane flooding. Surprised the NWS ignored the WPC and did not issue a Flood Watch. There was a slight risk.
That don’t look good! Has that big dog look to it
Additional tornado warnings for south-west Virginia being issued now. Pembroke, VA.
New watch till midnight
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Olar Ehrhardt Bamberg Branchville ..that area is in for a wild ride. I used to do a lot of utility work down there. Mobile homes and flat land
Scud wedge to my south, definitely a lowering
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Brick Tamland
Guest
New watch till midnight
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A little surprised they didn't extend the watch for Wake.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wake is under tornado watch # 88 that was issued a few hours ago and expires at 5pm. They'll likely have to extend it for eastern areas of the watch like Wake Co until 7-8 ish at least
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Areas affected...Portions of central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 87...
Valid 191720Z - 191845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Approaching squall line, with preceding semi-discrete
convection, will likely pose some severe risk across parts of
central Florida within the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts are
anticipated to be the main threat, though a brief tornado or two may
occur with the most intense storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
likely be issued downstream.
DISCUSSION...A mature squall line is currently propagating eastward
into central Florida, with semi-discrete cells ongoing from Hardee
to Collier County Florida. These storms are evolving within a
moderately buoyant (i.e. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment, driven
primarily by 7.5 C/km low-level lapse rates and relatively deep
low-level moisture. Bulk effective shear values of up to 40 knots is
present across the Florida Peninsula, but the bulk shear vectors are
oriented roughly parallel with the line, with a modest low-level
shear environment present.
Portions of the squall line farther north have produced sporatic
wind damage, with the aforementioned semi-discrete convection
producing gusts around 50 knots near Fort Meyers Beach within the
past hour. Current thermodynamic environment, as well as the latest
high-resolution model guidance, both suggest that potential exists
for additional damaging wind gusts to occur, with a potential uptick
expected across central FL in the near-term. A tornado or two is
also possible, both with the more organized cells ahead of the
squall line, and along the leading portions of squall line itself.
The best chance for a tornado would be farther north, where
deep-layer ascent and low-level shear is relatively stronger. Still,
overall modest low-level shear suggests that damaging gusts should
be the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
issued downstream to address the increasing damaging wind threat for
portions of central Florida.
Jessy89
Member
These sales are rotating a little. Just not down to the surface enough to go warned.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Yes, that is what I was talking about. It doesn't look like things really get going here until 4 or 5 pm.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Areas affected...Southeast GA...SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...
Valid 191719Z - 191845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat is shifting into SC.
DISCUSSION...Severe squall line has evolved along leading edge of
strong large-scale forcing for ascent. LEWP is evident over
southwest SC and this forced line of convection is surging northeast
at roughly 45kt. Damaging winds appear possible with these storms as
they spread across the northeastern half of ww89. While a tornado
can not be ruled out with the squall line, primary tornado threat
remains with discrete structures ahead of the linear MCS.
Major explosion taking place. Major wow for this part of the south 