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Severe Severe Weather 3/27-3/28 2021

Just got a special weather statement for a strong storm headed my way and heard some thunder. Of course this is without a watch now.
 
Shaggy said:
Clouds and rain nearly in the day like this gives doubts about our severe weather chances
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Was just thinking same thing, can it clear out and destabilize enough? Seems the atmosphere been pretty worked over, guess we will see.
 
metwannabe said:
Was just thinking same thing, can it clear out and destabilize enough? Seems the atmosphere been pretty worked over, guess we will see.
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The band in the mountains will make or break today i think. If it starts thinning out and falling apart we can destabilize for the front later. If it continues as is abs we are cloudy with showers through mid afternoon it'll be hard to destabilize before the front.
 
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Looking like it's going to be another one of those slight risk days that turns into clouds and showers. Line crossing the mountains is likely the deal killer.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looking like it's going to be another one of those slight risk days that turns into clouds and showers. Line crossing the mountains is likely the deal killer.
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HRRR basically keeps that first line intact all the way to the coast, if that happens it's it'll be a no go
 
SD said:
The band in the mountains will make or break today i think. If it starts thinning out and falling apart we can destabilize for the front later. If it continues as is abs we are cloudy with showers through mid afternoon it'll be hard to destabilize before the front.
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NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
 
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metwannabe said:
NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
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Seems the further east the better your chances are today. SPC also being cautious and mentioning lack of destabization.

Although additional boundary layer moistening will continue to occur within the broad warm sector, convective-line preceding cloud cover appears likely to temper diurnal destabilization in most areas into the afternoon. The most probable scenario appears to be for increasing linear convective organization east of the Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon in vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front. Boundary layer destabilization should remain weak, particularly outside of the North Carolina coastal plain and southeast Virginia, but an organizing/intensifying convective line will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent and cyclogenesis in vicinity of the lower Great Lakes. This linearly organized/fast-moving convection will likely overspread central/eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia, along with the Delmarva, and potentially as far north as southern New York/southern New England through late afternoon/early evening. Even where surface-based destabilization is minimal, very strong deep-layer winds, accentuated by 50-65 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL, will support the possibility of convectively related wind damage, and possibly some line-embedded circulations capable of relatively brief tornadoes this afternoon into evening.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems the further east the better your chances are today. SPC also being cautious and mentioning lack of destabization.

Although additional boundary layer moistening will continue to occur within the broad warm sector, convective-line preceding cloud cover appears likely to temper diurnal destabilization in most areas into the afternoon. The most probable scenario appears to be for increasing linear convective organization east of the Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon in vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front. Boundary layer destabilization should remain weak, particularly outside of the North Carolina coastal plain and southeast Virginia, but an organizing/intensifying convective line will be supported by increasing forcing for ascent and cyclogenesis in vicinity of the lower Great Lakes. This linearly organized/fast-moving convection will likely overspread central/eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia, along with the Delmarva, and potentially as far north as southern New York/southern New England through late afternoon/early evening. Even where surface-based destabilization is minimal, very strong deep-layer winds, accentuated by 50-65 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-3 km AGL, will support the possibility of convectively related wind damage, and possibly some line-embedded circulations capable of relatively brief tornadoes this afternoon into evening.
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If we clear out soon (getting peaks of sun already), I'd bet we have a better shot of severe with the first line
 
metwannabe said:
NWS AFD mentions same issues, calling it a "nowcast" situation. Also not sure those winds they keep mentioning of gust to 40 will materialize if we don't clear out. I assume that's why they chose to not go with an advisory
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Indeed we will need to get the sun out and mix. Winds even at 925 are ripping so it's not going to take a lot. I'd watch for dews to potentially mix this afternoon too there are lots of upper 50s low 60s on the models. Not sure it'll hurt storm initiation but it still raise the potential for severe wind gusts if we start getting a nice of inverted V soundings
 
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SD said:
Indeed we will need to get the sun out and mix. Winds even at 925 are ripping so it's but going to take a lot. I'd watch for dews to potentially mix this afternoon too there are lots of upper 50s low 60s on the models. Not sure it'll hurt storm initiation but it still raise the potential for severe wind gusts if we start getting a nice of inverted V soundings
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Yeah those winds at 925 are stupid, you're right any mixing will get some of that to the surface easily
 
Well had/have sun here on and off.. almost clear at times..Current 71/66 SW17G32 Am interested to see if the QLCS begins to "up[tick" as it moves into here. Give an idea of what may occur to the east.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Line looks weak af, yesterday was probably the more active day in NC
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Yesterday the hrrr nailed that storm that went from Winston through Raleight and here. It didnt hit the coverage as well because it had that storm as a lone storm when there were several that developed south of it.

That said the hrrr is unimpressed with today so far. It gives us a few cells here in the east but not as robust as some of yesterdays 3k nam runs
 
Shaggy said:
Yesterday the hrrr nailed that storm that went from Winston through Raleight and here. It didnt hit the coverage as well because it had that storm as a lone storm when there were several that developed south of it.

That said the hrrr is unimpressed with today so far. It gives us a few cells here in the east but not as robust as some of yesterdays 3k nam runs
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It's amazing how poor models are with timing these. I think at one point we were looking at 3-6z on this arriving.
 
The conditions outside are the kind that worry me when we're supposed to have storms. The sun is out, it's warm, and windy. Feels a lot like it did the morning of the tornadoes we had in April 2011.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Line looks weak af, yesterday was probably the more active day in NC
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Shaggy said:
Yesterday the hrrr nailed that storm that went from Winston through Raleight and here. It didnt hit the coverage as well because it had that storm as a lone storm when there were several that developed south of it.

That said the hrrr is unimpressed with today so far. It gives us a few cells here in the east but not as robust as some of yesterdays 3k nam runs
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Guess that would be typical of how things go lately. On Friday the local mets on WRAL were hyping the severe threat for today more than yesterday's. They have had a hard time lately getting these storms right.
 
Well cells are looking bit more "healthy as the move east of "I 85" into the warmer area where sun was out..
And BOOM one goes severe while I was typing
 
Brick Tamland said:
Guess that would be typical of how things go lately. On Friday the local mets on WRAL were hyping the severe threat for today more than yesterday's. They have had a hard time lately getting these storms right.
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Line could get itself together as it moves further east I would assume. It already looks slightly better than it did earlier, at least in the southern half of the state. The potential always seemed to be greater further east anyway, so it not doing much over the Piedmont isn't all that surprising.
 
Rah NWS has a very detailed AFD morning update laying out all possibilities and complexities. Nice read
 
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_9.pnghrrr_ref_frzn_seus_6.png
NAM shows a strong line of storms through the SC midlands this afternoon. HRRR not so much. HRRR seems to have initialized a little weaker than radar currently shows, but I'd still be willing to bet that we end up verifying closer to its solution.
 
HRRR is trying its absolute hardest to deletion a second line to help Charlotte and Raleigh get at least some action
 
HSVweather said:
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Unfortunately saw that a few people drowned in the flooding in Nashville. Luckily up here on the rim all the water is flowing down so we don’t get to many flooding spots in White House. The big may 2010 flood I believe around 13-14 inches of rain fell here in less then 48 hrs and this area had no problems. After that I knew we’d never have to worry about flooding around here thankfully.
 
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