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Severe Severe Weather 3/27-3/28 2021

This is basically a MCS with embedded hailers/supercells View attachment 80694View attachment 80695View attachment 80696
Very nasty looking for sure. Hopefully that first map does not verify exactly with what looks like a tornadic supercell in Greenville county. That would move into Spartanburg county and eventually my way. No rural area along that possible track until it got into Union county. Of course the chance of that happening exactly as shown is very low, but someone in the I-85 corridor might have a rough time tomorrow if the general idea is correct.
 
I’m headed towards great falls SC tomorrow, that area always wins with warm front setups, these soundings along there are very supportive of hail producing supercells View attachment 80699View attachment 80700
That CAPE is crazy. I wonder if this will be a repeat of last May from the GSP area through Great Falls and on towards Camden. I have not seen clouds looking like they did here that evening but that one time and I have been here my entire life.
 
That CAPE is crazy. I wonder if this will be a repeat of last May from the GSP area through Great Falls and on towards Camden. I have not seen clouds looking like they did here that evening but that one time and I have been here my entire life.
That’s exactly what I been thinking the setup mimics
SPC also slept on that one
 
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That’s exactly what I been thinking the setup mimics
SPC also slept on that one
And everyone slept on this last Thursday and had to play catch up. That one cell produced large hail and wind damage from Laurens over to Fairfield county and also did this:


Was very weak but it was a tornado though.
 
And everyone slept on this last Thursday and had to play catch up. That one cell produced large hail and wind damage from Laurens over to Fairfield county and also did this:


Was very weak but it was a tornado though.
That was a boundary setup As well
 
Surprised no one's said anything about this. Looks like there's a legit chance for some tornadic storms tonight in north alabama. HRRR even shows low topped kidney beans firing up in isolated areas. Sig tor parameters are pretty high too. Hope nobody is caught sleeping on this.Screenshot_20210327-080650.pngScreenshot_20210327-080632.pngScreenshot_20210327-080719.png
 
Slight risk brought into parts of NC and SC for today for a wind threat.

That 2% tornado risk is interesting to. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a couple isolated supercells


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That 2% tornado risk is interesting to. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a couple isolated supercells


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Yep and Chris Justus and ------------- showed models which develop at least 1 big supercell in upstate SC today. They showed it taking maybe the worst possible track through the GSP metro too. If it does develop and takes that track with a tornado things could get really bad.
 
Honestly that area on the tennessee alabama border is worrisome. Coupled with ingredients and how models project a few cells to separate themselves there might be a strong tornado or two. I think the tornado potential is being underlooked here. Maybe im wrong, but it might be a long night in the tennessee valley.
 
Honestly that area on the tennessee alabama border is worrisome. Coupled with ingredients and how models project a few cells to separate themselves there might be a strong tornado or two. I think the tornado potential is being underlooked here. Maybe im wrong, but it might be a long night in the tennessee valley.
Yep, I have a feeling it's really going to be off to the races tonight!
 
1000 AM Update...The fcst is in pretty good shape. Made some minor
adjs to cloud cover and temps. The SPS has increased the severe risk
to the Slight category for most of the FA this afternoon. This makes
senses, as the latest HRRR runs continue to show good convec
development along a warm front this afternoon. The degree of severity
and location with these storms still depends on where and how strong
an insitu wedge develops over the next few hrs. For now, the best
chance for severe storms, including possible supercells, looks to be
across the srn NC mtns and foothills, NE GA, and across the nrn
Upstate where the wedge bndry will be the most distinct.


The latest from GSP.
 
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