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Severe weather 2020

Tornado hit at the worst time, too. I bet a lot of folks were caught off guard. There didn't seem to be that much hype for severe weather yesterday. What threat level were they under from the SPC?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Tornado hit at the worst time, too. I bet a lot of folks were caught off guard. There didn't seem to be that much hype for severe weather yesterday. What threat level were they under from the SPC?
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They were under a slight risk for severe, the primary threat was hail however there were some signs yesterday that a tornado threat could exist into the overnight.
 
Webberweather53 said:
They were under a slight risk for severe, the primary threat was hail however there were some signs yesterday that a tornado threat could exist into the overnight.
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Okay. Sounds like they might have dropped the ball on this one.
 
Parts of Alabama and Georgia are under a slight risk today.

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And there is a tornado watch up for Alabama.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

Areas affected...central Alabama into west-central Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...

Valid 031325Z - 031530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may continue to pose a tornado or
damaging wind threat over the next several hours from central
Alabama into west-central Georgia.

DISCUSSION...A slow-developing, but long-lived cluster of storms
continues to sporadically pose a tornado risk over central Alabama
this morning. These storms formed in association with warm/moist
advection, and persist with the aid of substantial deep-layer wind
shear and sufficient instability. 12Z soundings from the region
suggest MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Objective analysis further
indicates that instability decreases south of the area as
temperatures aloft are warmer. However, pockets of heating may
eventually develop later this morning and aid destabilization.
Effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 is also forecast to remain for much of
the day. As such, a brief tornado or damaging wind gusts remain
possible within this east-west corridor.

..Jewell.. 03/03/2020
 
I see this thread is pinned but the other thread for the specific threat today isn't. I was wondering if we should pin the other thread, too. Or do we really need a thread like this for general severe weather when we could discuss the medium and long range stuff in the March thread and just use a specific storm thread for specific severe threats. I think having this one and the other thread for the specific threat is creating a lot of back and forth between two threads talking about the same event.
 
What the heck happened way east of Nashville if this is true that's over an hour to the east

Davidson County is Nashville

In Putnam County the number of deaths have risen to 14, while two deaths have been confirmed in Wilson County, two in Davidson County, and one person in Benton County.
 
All my family is safe but brother lost his house and moms house has some damage in Lebanon. Sis in Cookeville was 4 miles from complete devastation and knows friends that have passed. It is complete shock and grief this morning. I called them all to wake them up right before it hit.
 
Downeastnc said:
Strong large tornado hitting a highly populated area in the early morning hrs is recipe for high death tolls.....hopefully it stops at 19.
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yeah unfortunately not surprised. I was born and raised in Alabama and I've seen it too many times
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe it is just me, but it feels like the tornadoes have decreased in the midwest and the famous tornado alley, and more and more have hit the southeast in the last 20 years.
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There has been articles about tornado alley moving east

Certainly they are deadlier over there
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe it is just me, but it feels like the tornadoes have decreased in the midwest and the famous tornado alley, and more and more have hit the southeast in the last 20 years.
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Eh, I don’t know. The south has always had deadly tornadoes, the problem is population growth in the south compared to the plains is probably a bit higher. Add in better radar and a ton more spotters and you probably just have more proof of what has always been the case or just rarely covered by the national media.
 
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Stump said:
Deadlier due to tornadoes moving into more concentrated area's of people when the alley moves east. Out in the dust bowl, it seems like there are places you could go hours and not see another home/person.
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yup... I've been to Kansas its nothing but fields for miles. I think that plays more of a role than it shifting east, the deadlier tornadoes always get more coverage
 
Looks like Augusta will be under the gun later today.


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John1122 said:
I feel like tornadoes are much harder to see in the South than the Plains and with better detection and more people trained with easy damage reporting the numbers of confirmed tornadoes have risen.
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very good point, its much easier to see them out here vs when I lived in Alabama

it seems like there's more tornadoes at night over there too vs here
 
I don't exactly believe in the whole tornadoes are getting worse or more frequent idea.

I think that the world is overpopulated, and technology has allowed us to more accurately detect/find tornadoes. Like, of course tornadoes affect more people now. Does that make them worse? Or does that just expose an increasing population. Same with the number of tornadoes. There's more people to observe them and radar now.

From 1925, would that family of monster tornadoes be "deemed worse" now? Most likely because it affects many more people.
 
Shawn said:
I don't exactly believe in the whole tornadoes are getting worse or more frequent idea.

I think that the world is overpopulated, and technology has allowed us to more accurately detect/find tornadoes. Like, of course tornadoes affect more people now. Does that make them worse? Or does that just expose an increasing population. Same with the number of tornadoes. There's more people to observe them and radar now.

From 1925, would that family of monster tornadoes be "deemed worse" now? Most likely because it affects many more people.
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yup just look at the last decade and how much more technology there is... not just chasers but everyone has a camera now lol

we would never see tornadoes when I was a kid unless it just happened to be in the right spot of a city like Tuscaloosa 2000. Otherwise it was all guess work
 
For the NC peeps there is this map which shows were Carolina Alley is.....there is also a hot spot near the Triad and Charlotte would be interesting to see if there is anything micro climate wise for that....

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This was interesting as well


alley.jpg
 
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Downeastnc said:
For the NC peeps there is this map which shows were Carolina Alley is.....there is also a hot spot near the Triad and Charlotte would be interesting to see if there is anything micro climate wise for that....

View attachment 36773

This was interesting as well


View attachment 36774
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That Dothan/ enterprise area seem to see a lot.


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Downeastnc said:
For the NC peeps there is this map which shows were Carolina Alley is.....there is also a hot spot near the Triad and Charlotte would be interesting to see if there is anything micro climate wise for that....

View attachment 36773

This was interesting as well


View attachment 36774
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I guess from convection that develops/strengthens as they move East of the mountains + lee trough forcing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I guess from convection that develops/strengthens as they move East of the mountains + lee trough forcing
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You nailed it. For that reason, Charlotte and the Triad get overlooked as a severe weather hotspot, but we really are. Granted people assume we aren't as tornado-prone when in reality we really are. We just haven't been hit directly (or recently) as the 2008 Atlanta tornado or the 2011 Raleigh one.
 
ryan1234 said:
You nailed it. For that reason, Charlotte and the Triad get overlooked as a severe weather hotspot, but we really are. Granted people assume we aren't as tornado-prone when in reality we really are. We just haven't been hit directly (or recently) as the 2008 Atlanta tornado or the 2011 Raleigh one.
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Thankfully that 2008 Atlanta tornado was weak. I hate to think what a EF-3 would do to downtown Atlanta.


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I'd go with EF4 for the Nashville tornado and I haven't even looked at much of the damage. As I said about the AL EF4 last year before the survey was finished, there is a line between EF3 and EF4 fatality wise. It's grim to point out, but there is a stark rise in average fatalities when it crosses that threshold.
 
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I don't know how significant my vote is, but I for one will be glad when the SE ridge gets strong enough to shunt the severe weather away from us!
 
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