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Severe weather 2020

tennessee storm said:
yeah the aam is going negative... fixing to be tapping moisture from the carribbean ... mjo enetering a stormy phase also by end month, fixing to get very active
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Yeah GWO is going into phases with nina like tendencies, this is a few days old but that’s the AAM looking to go negative, and also tropical forcing should shift soon towards the Indian Ocean and head towards PH3, which honestly could set up a heat dome if things go the way it was last May, but these are indicators towards a active severe pattern in the LR
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Don't sleep on Saturday in the Carolinas if we end up more like the Euro. Would be similar to last week but we could have a few hailers/wind issues
 
SD said:
Don't sleep on Saturday in the Carolinas if we end up more like the Euro. Would be similar to last week but we could have a few hailers/wind issues
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Yeah looks like better instability this time as well south of a boundary with flow out the west aloft, decent look for a multicell cluster to get going
 
Call me crazy for saying this, but the LR GFS IMO is on to something and makes sense with a strong southeast ridge towards the end of the month and a look that would support severe more towards the central US, has support from the GEFS and the somewhat the EPS, MJO headed out of PH1/2 towards the East pacific/maritime continent towards the WH, AN gulf temps, TNI that @MattLabenzwx keeps hinting on our convos is in a favorable state, AAM is about to go negative, ST AAM headed ⬆, this reminds me of last May so much, not saying that we’re gonna 100% bake but it COULD really heat up, like early summer heat, but anyways I think in the long range that’s what the models are starting to pick up on8551A543-487B-4682-9967-620B5D047645.png45510FDA-82FF-4191-AC55-AA302223A909.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Call me crazy for saying this, but the LR GFS IMO is on to something and makes sense with a strong southeast ridge towards the end of the month and a look that would support severe more towards the central US, has support from the GEFS and the somewhat the EPS, MJO headed out of PH1/2 towards the East pacific/maritime continent towards the WH, AN gulf temps, TNI that @MattLabenzwx keeps hinting on our convos is in a favorable state, AAM is about to go negative, ST AAM headed ⬆, this reminds me of last May so much, not saying that we’re gonna 100% bake but it COULD really heat up, like early summer heat, but anyways I think in the long range that’s what the models are starting to pick up onView attachment 39496View attachment 39497
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AAM definitely showing signs of tanking negative which means more La Niña like tendencies in the pattern coming up and with enhancement of subtropical jet this could mean more severe weather in the plains with heat chances in the east with the developing southeast ridge in the longer term.
 

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Potential... GFS Also shows more impressive ridging around day 7+
 

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SD said:
I doubt it I don't benefit from snow or the copious summer thunderstorms
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That's what I meant...you don't have to worry about severe. You're close enough that the Wake Co. effect will ensure you also receive partly sunny skies and light drizzle, while 99 other counties get severe warned.
 
Definitely starting to get on board w/ the idea of another significant bout of severe sometime late next week, details remain to be seen, but patterns like this w/ a Kushnir-Branstator type retrogressive blocking high in the N Pacific usually end w/ the Pacific jet undercutting said block & cut-off upper lows emerging into the SW US. Once the Pacific jet retracts & becomes more sinusoidal as tropical forcing moves into the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent, western US troughs will be favored thru the end of the month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely starting to get on board w/ the idea of another significant bout of severe sometime late next week, details remain to be seen, but patterns like this w/ a Kushnir-Branstator type retrogressive blocking high in the N Pacific usually end w/ the Pacific jet undercutting said block & cut-off upper lows emerging into the SW US. Once the Pacific jet retracts & becomes more sinusoidal as tropical forcing moves into the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent, western US troughs will be favored thru the end of the month.
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And boom the southeast ridge has all the room to emerge one that happens, likely gonna see a shift to the plains soon once tropical forcing does switch towards the Indian Ocean/maritime continent
 
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