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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

ForsythSnow said:
The new NAM has STPs in GA now peaking at 7 and 8 in places.
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Just something Im noticing, a lot of the STP maps appear to be suffering from convection contamination. You can tell by noticing that the extreme STP values line up with the sim radar. Just food for thought.
 
Rain Cold said:
By the time it progresses to near the Triangle, it should be in linear mode and thus reduce the tornado threat somewhat. Definitely should be sufficient cape and shear for convection with winds and at least some tornado threat.
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Rotation with these storms is not impressive, but they are broken up with lots of ESRH, but a line segment just seems more likely like you said

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Arcc said:
Just something Im noticing, a lot of the STP maps appear to be suffering from convection contamination. You can tell by noticing that the extreme STP values line up with the sim radar. Just food for thought.
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Yep, definitely some noise in there, still some legit high values in there tho
 
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Considering that blob of pink is sitting over my backyard. That’s concerning the pink would potentially be super cells I would think


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Arcc said:
Just something Im noticing, a lot of the STP maps appear to be suffering from convection contamination. You can tell by noticing that the extreme STP values line up with the sim radar. Just food for thought.
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I'd still say a general 4 to 5 is bad enough though. I don't even want a 1 or 2 but a 4 to 5 is still significant enough. I get what you are saying though.
 
FWIW, the HRRR doesn't show the second round of storms that the 3km NAM is depicting.

That being said, it is more bullish with the morning round of storm. I checked the sounding here at 15z and it's a solid one for quick spin-up tornadoes.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd still say a general 4 to 5 is bad enough though. I don't even want a 1 or 2 but a 4 to 5 is still significant enough. I get what you are saying though.
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Im kind of curious if they didnt change the values again or as I said last night the STP numbers are just high from the very high shear values.
 
NAM sounding for tomorrow afternoon for the Triad...PDS TOR (does that mean what I think it means?)


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I don’t know if it matters but it is currently extremely muggy and warm feeling. Does not have the usual stable cool feel
 
Can anybody get a gate to gate shear on that thing? Its rotating like a top.
 
Its had a CC debris ball for around 15-20 minutes now it seems. And looks like it has no plans of stopping
 
Looks like another supercell is about to merge into the inflow. This could strengthen it or tear it apart. Screenshot_20190413-110715_RadarScope.jpg
 
Arcc said:
Gonna see that a lot today; merges, inflow disruptions and lots of meso cycles.
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Sometimes it strengthens the tornadoes unfortunately. Joplin missouri tornado for example. It strengthened after a supercell merged.
 
That second rotation to the northwest of the tornado seems to be combining with the orginal tornado.Screenshot_20190413-111953_RadarScope.jpg
 
I've been watching that Pack stream for a while, it seems like he's looking at his radar as much as possible to make sure he doesn't end up in that rain wrapped tornado.

Edit: He's found damage.
 
This tornado has been on the ground for over 30 minutes now it seems. And it looks like its starting to become the dominant storm after the rotation to the northwest merged. Very large CCScreenshot_20190413-112348_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20190413-112338_RadarScope.jpg
 
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