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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

You can see the updrafts in TX stretching under the very strong shear. It will be interesting to see if the developing updrafts can hold together in LA as the stronger shear moves east.
 
Just saw tornado damage around Jacksonville, TX on a stream. It's close to Alto, TX as well.

Edit: Nick Busby is now stuck in what looks like inflow to me.
 
There's definitely a legitimate threat of tornadoes into NC Sunday evening and Sunday night.

This 3km NAM forecast sounding over virtually the entire NWS Raleigh domain around midnight Sunday night is very impressive and certainly supports the potential for isolated tornadoes well into the overnight hours.
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Webberweather53 said:
There's definitely a legitimate threat of tornadoes into NC Sunday evening and Sunday night.

This 3km NAM forecast sounding over virtually the entire NWS Raleigh domain around midnight Sunday night is very impressive and certainly supports the potential for isolated tornadoes well into the overnight hours.
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Also I noticed the extended HRRR is a good bit faster with the timing, has the line moving through Central NC a few hours earlier than the 3km NAM did. If it ends up being right with faster timing then that would enhance the threat even more with extra instability to work with.
 
And just like that two tornado warnings in the moderate risk area. Things should really pick up the next few hours. This cell on the south side could be particular nasty once it cranks up.
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snowlover91 said:
Also I noticed the extended HRRR is a good bit faster with the timing, has the line moving through Central NC a few hours earlier than the 3km NAM did. If it ends up being right with faster timing then that would enhance the threat even more with extra instability to work with.
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Yeah very true. The real question will be convective mode and instability around this time, obviously as you said faster timing definitely heightens the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes later tomorrow. The lack of CIN certainly could work in our favor (or against it depending on your point of view) but this is the most favorable setup we've seen thus far this year for severe weather in general and especially tornadoes.

There's a lot of 0-1 km SRH about the time some of these storms are forecast to pop up on the NAM
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day1otlk_2000.gif
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS...THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across
parts of the south-central to southeast states through tonight. The
most likely region for strong tornadoes is from east Texas to
Mississippi, with the most dangerous period for tornadoes through 8
PM CDT.

...Discussion...
The only changes made to the previous outlook include the following:
1) Removal and eastward adjustment of probabilities over eastern TX
coincident with the evolving squall line.
2) Lowering severe probabilities over central AR and removal of
probabilities over southeastern OK where cool/stable air will likely
inhibit the risk for a strong gust or marginally severe hail.
3) A small westward extension of 5-percent hail/wind probabilities
in western NC.
Click to expand...
 
I wonder if the areas that weren't as hyped to get bad weather will be the ones to get the worst tbh. HRRR still has a broken line of supercells going though MS/AL .watch alabama get tornado warnings left and right later tonight and in the morning?‍♂️Screenshot_20190413-145621_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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