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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

DizzyDave45 said:
Northwest Louisiana here. I know i'm keeping all my people alert about the potential for Saturday. Tornadoes are fairly common around here, but it's been a while since we've had a major tornado. 1999 comes to mind. F4 tornado left 7 dead as it tore through north Bossier and Benton. Had a weak one last year that ran though Shreveport/Bossier killing a small child.

I hear lots of chasers are coming down so that tells me it's going to be bad lol. Everybody hates chasing down here. If you're down here chasing, I-49 north of Shreveport is decent.. has some semi flat land and decent viewing, FWIW.
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Stay safe and keep us informed of what's going on.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Some interesting line segments forming in South Carolina moving into NC ... could be interesting a bit later
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Wonder if we need a separate thread for today or maybe change the date for this one to include today.
 
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Looking at the WRFs, Im still gonna say the highest chance of long track tornado will be across central MS. Im still thinking that things go upscale too quickly across LA and the higher threat across MS fits climatology.
 
going to keep a watch on south MS/AL this afternoon. HRRR shows a storm complex/supercell with a decent updraft. Screenshot_20190412-131357_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks awful for Louisiana tomorrow. Wish we had some posters from there. I don't think they are used to having tornadoes there, either.
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From Northwest La., and with every update of the models, I'm becoming more and more validated in my purchase of a rated storm shelter that's bolted to my foundation. As DizzyDave45 said, we get them fairly frequently, but it has been a long time since we had a violent tornado strike a populated area. I fear that streak will be broken tomorrow. Everyone keep us in your prayers!
 
cmbowers83 said:
From Northwest La., and with every update of the models, I'm becoming more and more validated in my purchase of a rated storm shelter that's bolted to my foundation. As DizzyDave45 said, we get them fairly frequently, but it has been a long time since we had a violent tornado strike a populated area. I fear that streak will be broken tomorrow. Everyone keep us in your prayers!
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My ILs are in Shreveport, and I'm very concerned about them.
 
Loganatorh said:
I'm obviously very new here, but the general vibe in arklatex is complacency with severe weather because, while we do get some nasty storms, we don't really see the worst mother nature has to offer. I remember a few years ago there was a high risk day setup similar to this system, and it (thankfully) did not turn out as dire as it seemed. I worry people won't take a PDS severe threat seriously around here. (Again I am very new here and am only just beginning to seriously look into learning a lot about severe weather but just thought I'd offer input from the area).
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The general public generally doesn't take the threat here as seriously as they should. It's just been longer than most people can remember since we've had a violent tornado. I will never ever forget the 1999 Bossier City-Benton F4. A trailer frame wrapped around a tree trunk like a piece of ribbon was traumatic to a 15 year old me!
 
gailatmsu said:
My ILs are in Shreveport, and I'm very concerned about them.
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I hope for everyone here that our concerns do not come to fruition. There are so many people who live in poverty in poorly constructed buildings or mobile homes. If we have a strong or violent tornado go through a populated area, there will be a lot of casualties. Make sure your in-laws are up to speed and keep an eye on it for them. That's all anyone can do is be ready.
 
Hrrr is still ugly, sfc supercells headed into Louisiana and the circle with the arrow has elevated supercells with likely monster hail C198E1BE-1E0D-4524-B397-DB41E67735DA.jpeg
 
Not sure to put this here or the April thread, but looks like storms are starting to fire up around here now.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
418 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2019

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Moore County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Randolph County in central North Carolina...
Lee County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 515 PM EDT

* At 417 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles west of Siler City to 7 miles northwest of Pinehurst, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Pittsboro, Carthage, Siler City, Goldston, Liberty,
Ramseur, Robbins, Staley and Cameron.
 
FFC sounds wary about Sunday, pending hi-res models coming into range.

“Main concern in the period is likelihood, timing, modes and
intensity of convection on Sunday. 12Z guidance in good agreement on
overall timing and intensity of short wave trough, located near Ern
OK/Wrn AR 12Z Sun with very strong jet ahead of it over the SE
CONUS, H5 speeds over 100kts and considerable 0-6km deep shear
progged. Evolution of convection much more difficult to predict.
Expect line of convection from overnight Sat night to be moving east
into NW GA after 12-15Z Sun. 3km NAM nest indicates this line will
weaken as it pushes east into more stable air while new convection
develops to the west in north AL around 21Z, closer to the upper low
and original pre-frontal trough or cold front and moves into NW
counties around 00Z. Not enough hires guidance available to support
this solution, local WRF models and NCEP hires windows only go to
48hrs. Have created hourly grids for the Sunday period to better
show best estimate of timing. Siding more with thought that original
line will hold together longer than 12Z NAM nest indicates.

Regardless of timing, environment will be favorable for some
supercells ahead of the line of convection. Deep shear, as
mentioned, very strong and due SW direction just on the favorable
side of cell-based convective mode. Low level shear may be a tad
weak as will be SBCAPE which is "only" progged around 1000 J/kg. If
line weakens quicker than expected and more sunshine occurs Sunday,
would see more substantial CAPE than this, but not seeing any
indication of this in guidance. Main threat should be damaging wind
with potential for significant tornadoes contingent on seeing
greater instability and low-level shear. If line can slow down,
moving into Georgia around 18Z, that would also provide better
environment for tornadoes.”
 
I wonder what GSP is thinking for upstate sc Sunday. This to me looks like it may give Upstate South Carolina it’s biggest threat in quite a while. There’s not much to weaken this system


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WOAH WOAH WOAH bigggg pause, I don’t want no smoke, were is the wedge front when you need it, this is some of the highest STP I’ve seen in a long time in NC A02027B9-40DD-42EA-9148-FC2E60A3808B.jpegFBDA3D36-2E3A-4D99-A796-93DDC7979090.jpegsounding near FAY right here is a near loaded gun sounding, huge and curved hodo, 500-650 1km and 3km SRH, decent CAPE, lots of sfc moisture, EML, STPs are nearly as high right here as there are tommorow in Louisiana, wtffff A7BDDF78-B932-4455-9472-F10FC6F8A7B8.png
 
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