Jessy89
Member
Someone with knowledge. This is a sounding of upstate sc. what would this sounding mean?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Someone with knowledge. This is a sounding of upstate sc. what would this sounding mean?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
with systems coming through at night sometimes. Just with high dewpoints and temps and a strong low level jet speeding up when this wave comes through i usually dont think models grasp the instability well. Nws bham talked about it too.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Local mets (JC) saying models are backing off the severe for W Carolinas Sunday. KK showed future radar, not even any yellow in our area! Dodged a bullet?
In house model, possible solution, but I’d go with more severe with such a strong LLvL jet, for example NAM 3km
Good ole glen guess he didnt see the latest 0z name runs it wasnt exactly reflecting a true robbing situation
Jessy89
Member
I tell ya seems like local meteorologist treat severe weather like snow. And under plays it
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
After reviewing 0z guidance, I am still in disagreement with the SPC, namely for the Carolinas. I only agree with the areas out west approaching Louisiana. I am actually shocked at the enhanced risk for places like Boone NC. There is going to be some severe weather but I do not see it how they see it playing out!
This setup and southerly flow does not support long track tornadoes near GSP going into the NC foothills. I see some potential for damaging winds if storms take advantage of peak heating and do not weaken over the mountains. A slight tornado risk within 3 counties of Greensboro NC would be more favorable in this particular setup.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
02z HRRR STP is unreal.
No where close to 4/27.
Snowflowxxl
Member
4/27 makes this event look like a light shower. That was once a generation type event
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I looked back on that date in 2017 and it looked like a localized outbreak not a multistate one.
Edit: I am seeing 2014 and that makes more sense.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea around 4/28 I believe
got a PDS out of triangle area
Just a note, some of these PDS soundings and STP numbers are driven by the insane shear such as the one above with 77knts of 0-6km bulk shear. The sounding above could be dangerous with the right conditions, but its not a true PDS sounding to me.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Maybe I missed it but I still don’t see how this could be bad for NGA (ie I-20 & points north)
Snowflowxxl
Member
huh?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
At this point there's really only 1 thing that could possibly save Georgia from a mess (not as big of one as Louisiana however), and it's convection robbing moisture.
And while it's possible you get that, can't count on it happening.
And while it's possible you get that, can't count on it happening.
What do you mean?
The WRFs are interesting, both ARW and NSSL WRF show little in the way for LA, with most of the UH streaks up on the warm front in AR besides one big supercell with the first round of storms. Then looks like embedded supercells in the QLCS or broken line creates a bunch of spin ups for AL and MS.
The NMMB WRF looks like the 0-3km NAM and poos out everything. Although that WRF is normally negative Nancy about everything.
The NMMB WRF looks like the 0-3km NAM and poos out everything. Although that WRF is normally negative Nancy about everything.
Heck it could get bad in the midwest. They are talking about possible tornadoes in OH and IN.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Sorry...again, not as well versed in SVR as I am in winter...seems like the convection along the panhandle could be the thing that saves N.GA...I’ll admit that I’m vulnerable & hate playing the weenie card here, but when folks post sounding & holographs with a PDS Tornado from pivotal that have a comment that just says “uh oh” or “not good”, I have no idea what that means...there’s no location or context and I can’t convert lat & long in my head. Again, my apologies if that’s a requirement for the board.
I’m looking at this thread because I’m concerned my area may experience SVR WX, which they’re overdue for. Between that & a CAD-induced ice storm, I know which one is more likely. Not in the context of SVR.
I’m looking at this thread because I’m concerned my area may experience SVR WX, which they’re overdue for. Between that & a CAD-induced ice storm, I know which one is more likely. Not in the context of SVR.
Just FYI, you can pop them into Google and it will show you where it's at.
So confused. So many different enthusiasts spotters mets etc saying diff things and & making things better models are still all OVER the place. Gotta love it but theres people online already and saying theres not going to be any severe because of the storms along the gulf coast etc...
Jessy89
Member
Just my two cents but. I think Louisiana and Alabama has the potential of the wide spread tornado outbreak. As you get into the Carolinas and Georgia the severe weather threat is more scattered probably with tornados being isolated not wide spread
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RebelBearLandshark
Member
Obligatory hate to be that guy statement, but I'm a student at Ole Miss from Maryland, will tomorrow's weather spawn tornadoes in Lafayette County or Oxford in particular? Or will it stay further to the South? Just a little bit anxious since we don't get tornadoes often back home.
03z RAP is dangerous for AL MS TN GA starting as early as 4AM with supercells possible. Ramps up 9-11AM line slows
Snowflowxxl
Member
SPC kept it a day 1 moderate, but is a very large all things considered. Also mention outbreak potential.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Scary day ahead of us
Snowflowxxl
Member
DAY 2
RollTide18
Member
That is pretty far north for sure
TXTornado
Member
I was expecting a Day 1 High
Snowflowxxl
Member
Still could get it in The morning
Brent
Member
I was kind of on the fence but wouldn't be surprised if it happens later this morning
tennessee storm
Member
Think Spc going be stingy with those this season.... maybe next week?
Claycochaser
Member
All modes of severe weather are on the table for your area...hard to be much more specific than that. Just stay aware and have a place to get weather information and you'll be fine.
HSVweather
Member
FYI
We are aware that most of our radio transmitters are out right now, including Arab, Cullman, Florence, Fort Payne, and Winchester. We are actively and continuously working with technicians to get these back up ASAP. We will post an update as soon as we have one.
We are aware that most of our radio transmitters are out right now, including Arab, Cullman, Florence, Fort Payne, and Winchester. We are actively and continuously working with technicians to get these back up ASAP. We will post an update as soon as we have one.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
I guess our local mets don’t read the AFDs!!?
EMTime
Member
Spooky stuff. I'm about 15 miles east of Tupelo ms ( as the crow flies ) and it seems here lately this area is a tornado magnet.
I'm actually working right now in monroe county, just below tupelo on an ambulance.
The amory railroad festival is currently underway, and they are expecting over 30,000 people to attend it TODAY.
Last edited: