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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

If there’s any good news, 3km clusters things up quick af in Louisiana, bad news ? Horrible soundings, let a storm in a free environment and wedges are possible, me saying that makes me sick DBAA23EC-025E-4106-9FB3-2F495AD61E47.jpegCCF04424-4534-438F-BA05-E4709F6C3C14.png
 
Zander98al said:
Theyll be low top supercells but shear will have each one rotating i imagine. Because SRH helicity all the way to 1km is plentiful. If there was more instability itd be scary.
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Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
 
I almost think models are undergoing instability a bit. Dew points are projected to be in the upper 60s in central alabama. If instability is just a little bit more than forecasted in models it'd be significant.
 
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RollTide18 said:
Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
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That one had a bit more instability. But lesser shear. But it may end up being like that. I don't think alabama will have any violent tornadoes but i imagine there will be a good bit of warnings.
 
RollTide18 said:
Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
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That time there was 150-250 of 1/3km SRH, this time there will be SRH around 300-400 ms2-s, also stronger low level shear, but less instability, definitely supports those types of storms that produce strong quick spin ups and storms with no thunder or lightning, not major/strong long track tornadoes tho 119814C8-8613-4399-83CB-58DC111A4716.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That time there was 150-250 of 1/3km SRH, this time there will be SRH around 300-400 ms2-s, also stronger low level shear, but less instability, definitely supports those types of storms that produce strong quick spin ups and storms with no thunder or lightning, not major/strong long track tornadoes tho View attachment 18779
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Exactly. But if models lets say under predict instability by say around 500-600j itll be bad. The lee county tornado only took 1000j of sbcape to become the monster it was. I have a feeling its being under done a tad.
 
Zander98al said:
Exactly. But if models lets say under predict instability by say around 500-600j itll be bad. The lee county tornado only took 1000j of sbcape to become the monster it was. I have a feeling its being under done a tad.
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Lee county tornado actually only had 500-750 jkg of SFC cape, but had increased low level instability (3CAPE)
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Moderate Risk basically a guarantee for Saturday, will be interesting to see if they go High. I'm not sure if 2018 saw a single high risk day.
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I think florida had a high risk actually a very very rare high risk for them. Or that might've been the year before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If there’s any good news, 3km clusters things up quick af in Louisiana, bad news ? Horrible soundings, let a storm in a free environment and wedges are possible, me saying that makes me sick View attachment 18777View attachment 18778
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Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
 
Arcc said:
Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
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I've read that for favorable tornado development you would want lapse rates in the lowest km above 6.5 or so.
 
Arcc said:
Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
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True, with lapse rates that meager updrafts wouldn’t be that explosive, one reason why here in SC/NC storms struggled with to go severe/produce lightning a few days ago because while LLvL lapses were good, mid levels lapse rates were garbage
 
00z NAM definitely looks to be the ceiling for GA.

GFS/GGEM continue to be notably faster (faster than the 12z runs even), thus "less" ominous because of the timing.
 
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