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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Looks like the 18z 3k nam may have been a fluke.. per the 00z HRRRScreenshot_20190412-205131_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190412-205148_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190412-205105_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Tomorrow is unfortunately looking like it may be one of those terrible days for those in/around northern Louisana, far eastern TX, southern Arkansas, and Mississippi especially in seeing some of the CAMs pick up on a significant, initial round of supercells well before any of the main action gets underway later in the afternoon and evening. That's usually something you only see w/ the really bad outbreaks like late Apr 2011, etc. :(
 
Webberweather53 said:
Tomorrow is unfortunately looking like it may be one of those terrible days for those in/around northern Louisana, far eastern TX, southern Arkansas, and Mississippi especially in seeing some of the CAMs pick up on a significant, initial round of supercells well before any of the main action gets underway later in the afternoon and evening. That's usually something you only see w/ the really bad outbreaks like late Apr 2011, etc. :(
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Hoping the ef5 drought isn't broken tomorrow. ? insane parameters
 
NAM is still nasty.NAMUS_con_stp_021.png
2019041300_NAM_021_31.61,-92.88_severe_ml.png
 
For alabama people it looks like it may be a long night for us. No where near bad as to the west but here's the updraft helicity swaths per HRRRScreenshot_20190412-210425_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Nam shows possible tornadic storm in north alabama tomorrow around 7 or 8 oclock?. Everybody should watch out from alabama west tomorrow. May have a few suprises.Screenshot_20190412-211622_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190412-211542_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Sleet City USA said:
Someone can check me on this, but I believe this run of the NAM ramps it back up a little quicker than the 18z did. Central AL with more PDS soundings
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Because more instability. I was talking yesterday and the day before that i thought instability was being under done. And it seems models are picking up on more instability now.
 
Question, does anyone have any archive maps from before the April 2011 outbreak? Because I keep seeing it mentioned a lot now.
 
Holy **** the NAM just dropped the mic!! Some of y’all talking about dropping to slight, NAM Days upgrade to moderate!
 
soundings are concerning for AL this run of the NAM 3km, still a large/curved hodo and storms trying to remain sfc-based
EEDCA484-C80D-4498-91B9-8B1ED9B9B4E3.png
 
SimeonNC said:
Question, does anyone have any archive maps from before the April 2011 outbreak? Because I keep seeing it mentioned a lot now.
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Go to spc's website a look at tstorms events on the left side and look for the date. This event doesn't compare to april 27 2011 though. That event was once in a generation. But the event tomorrow is significant nonetheless
 
NAM is still showing the Gulf convention killing the first line and the second wave forming.
 
The trend is obvious, trending towards something we all hate to see
12z
EE44B620-19A4-4263-AA53-862C6AC4F3F5.jpeg>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>18z7915C35E-7E72-405B-B657-7DE7912317A9.jpeg>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>00zA8423FC4-A727-4887-B441-4F6E17A327FE.jpegeven if Sim reflectivity is not that impressive, STPs keep rising
 
I'm really not liking the NAM showing a 6 STP over most of N and Central GA. Does it guarantee a tornado? No. But it's a scary look that could mean someone's getting one. Just hope it's not anywhere near here.
 
Holy cats at the NAM for Georgia. Bad, bad, bad. Seriously might have to push for ASAP on leaving Sunday as if not I'm not certain I'll be getting home.
 
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