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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Just had a chance to finally see the 18z NAM. Wow is all I have to say. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all could see Tornadoes. Could be a very bad weekend across the region, and sadly next week looks even worse.
 
Yeah the cutter parade continues which is deadly during the warm season.


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Snowflowxxl said:
Just had a chance to finally see the 18z NAM. Wow is all I have to say. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all could see Tornadoes. Could be a very bad weekend across the region, and sadly next week looks even worse.
Click to expand...
What has me concerned is the possiblity of two waves into alabama, Georgia. And how much instability can make it for the 1st batch of storms. But LA/MS look to have it rough as well as east texas. Waiting too see how the 00z nam takes the two waves and whether local weather channels will mention it.
 
Here's some interesting pics. From similar analogs to this upcoming event. It puts the 15% to 30% tornado risk areas on day 3 and day 4. That day 3 actually lines up nicely with the enhanced risk area from spc. Screenshot_20190411-201917_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190411-201929_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
What has me concerned is the possiblity of two waves into alabama, Georgia. And how much instability can make it for the 1st batch of storms. But LA/MS look to have it rough as well as east texas. Waiting too see how the 00z nam takes the two waves and whether local weather channels will mention it.
Click to expand...

I would put no stock at all in a second wave despite what the models say. Im not saying to put it out of your mind or to not watch for one though. Experience tells me that the second wave will probably be a thin line of heavy showers on the front unless the squall line moves out very early or the cold pool associated with it falls apart.

Ive been burned waiting on that second round too many times in setups like this.
 
if a supercell can find a open area with no linear convection near it, this sounding would easily support a strong/long track tornado, but like I said it depends on how storms merge/become linear due to changing wind profiles
73E2DA49-338F-455E-B75B-E5FAC0E5F71A.png
 
Boy the 0z NAM man. At least it seems to be stalling again, because those PDS Tornado soundings are tilting me.
 
You know arcc mentioned watching out for a surprise storm saturday were you wouldn't expect or something like that the other day. And the 3k nam indicates a area of north alabama and north mississippi on saturday. That a surprise storm could initiate. And be by itself.
 
This is not good, supercells all over Alabama

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_45.png
 
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