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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

BirdManDoomW said:
A large tornado watch for only one warning would probably do more harm than good. After looking at the latest data, I still don’t see a large tornado break for NC this weekend. I see more of a gusty wind threat and maybe some flooding in spots. 0-1 tornado for western NC and maybe around 2 for the rest of the state. Won’t know till the morning of to see how many clouds and rain are putting a lid on things.
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Exactly ... and thank you (since it ain't my neighborhood, I'm reluctant to speak too much)
 
If the 3k nam is right tomorrow will need to be watched in parts of upstate SC. It has a clear boundary running from near Charlotte NC to Greenwood SC. 2000-3000 cape along and south of it. May not be but 1 or 2 storms but if they get near that boundary they could be rough.
 
LA/MS guys need to watch out for the possiblity of a storm in the morning hours shows a strong long track rotating stormScreenshot_20190412-192107_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
stormcentral said:
Source???? For such statement
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The sim radar on the 3k does show a decrease across Alabama as the gulf convection continues
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SD said:
The sim radar on the 3k does show a decrease across Alabama as the gulf convection continues
2cfd23adcd8395361ffc0f425d72f9da.gif


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That kind of makes the Enhanced Risk area on Sunday look awfully silly.
 
Jessy89 said:
It will probably be downgraded tomorrow to slight risk. If the Trends continues.


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That was always a possible outcome, between the poor timing and the best dynamics having shifted further NW.
 
You know if that does happen and areas don't get worked over in north alabama and the sun comes out. A second wave may appear more likely. Ample shear will be in place for a second wave. So idk.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's because it's not the full story. It's the second area that is more concerning.
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True, but FFC did make a good point about that outcome in this morning's discussion, which would still put the enhanced risk area into question.

"A band of showers and thunderstorms will
develop Saturday night along and ahead of the front, moving to the
GA/AL by Sunday morning, and across the CWA during the day Sunday.
By Sunday evening the main band of convection will be out of the
CWA, well ahead of the cold front. There could be some re-initiation
of convection along the front as it moves across the CWA Sunday
evening, but with drier air moving into the CWA, the convection
should be scattered."
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Wtf are y’all talking about, storms start firing up around 22z. Smh
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The model clearly shows the initial band of storms dying as convection forms in the gulf. No one really mentioned whether or not a second band would form behind it. That does make you wonder how the atmosphere would be affected if at all.

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SD said:
The model clearly shows the initial band of storms dying as convection forms in the gulf. No one really mentioned whether or not a second band would form behind it. That does make you wonder how the atmosphere would be affected if at all.

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Agree, I was more referring to the people talking after your initial post
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Agree, I was more referring to the people talking after your initial post
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Understood. I do think though that that initial band of storms, its outflow/cool pool, and potential gulf convection will create a forecast headache from Al east. You could really see those factors driving the potential for severe weather up or down across a good part of the region

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Something else to note. Is if there isn’t a solid line. Or wide spread severe weather over Georgia and Carolinas. There still likely be a few isolated individual storm cells that could try to rotate. It’s really a tricky forecast


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Has the system speeded up too that also limits the risk if so James Paul dice said faster moving
 
SouthATLwx said:
So maybe the words "look awfully silly" were a poor choice. I should have said such an outcome puts the Enhanced Risks area on Sunday "into question."
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I expect a downgrade tomorrow to slight risk probably I just dont see an enhanced risk if the gulf storms form
 
These weather models are going to induce early hair loss for me by making me pull my hair out. ? lol. 00z HRRR is almost halfway through so will see how a good bit of alabama convection unfolds i imagine.
 
Zander98al said:
These weather models are going to induce early hair loss for me by making me pull my hair out. ? lol. 00z HRRR is almost halfway through so will see how a good bit of alabama convection unfolds i imagine.
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This is why I hate systems with the SSW flow aloft with a strong trough in this position.
 
Arcc said:
Really not a crazy solution. Those have happened several times and could actually be the storm of the day. Although I could see it happening farther west.
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Itll be a hectic day for sure tomorrow.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is not uncommon. Getting a few severe-warned storms when there’s no watch is pretty routine.

Anyway, I like the rain every few days during pollen season.
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Well, it has not been uncommon the past few years. Why I have said it seems we get more severe storms and warnings around here now when we're not under a watch than when we are.
 
SD said:
The sim radar on the 3k does show a decrease across Alabama as the gulf convection continues
2cfd23adcd8395361ffc0f425d72f9da.gif


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Hate seeing that in winter, but great to have happen with a chance of severe weather. That may be the only hope we have for not having a bad outbreak.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hate seeing that in winter, but great to have happen with a chance of severe weather. That may be the only hope we have for not having a bad outbreak.
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It could play the reverse roll as well though into sunday afternoon as the remnant outflow would be a good initiation point for isolated/scattered storms in a setup that's more favorable for supercells ahead of the main band of storms

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SD said:
It could play the reverse roll as well though into sunday afternoon as the remnant outflow would be a good initiation point for isolated/scattered storms in a setup that's more favorable for supercells ahead of the main band of storms

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Agreed.

If there's sneaky potential anywhere on Sunday, it would be in SC/NC.
 
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