• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

12z NAM is still nasty for Louisiana.NAMUS_con_stp_057.png
nam_2019041112_057_31.62--92.53.png
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I'm very nervous about the nocturnal threat for Saturday night.
Click to expand...
Last time i had a tornado threat at night in my area was 7 years ago killed a girl down the street. Deaths rise when it becomes night events unfortunately. Because everybody shrugs it off and sleeps.
 
Zander98al said:
Last time i had a tornado threat at night in my area was 7 years ago killed a girl down the street. Deaths rise when it becomes night events unfortunately. Because everybody shrugs it off and sleeps.
Click to expand...
You must be in the Trussville area. That was a terrible storm at night. Several of my co-workers were directly hit and had moderate to severe damage to their homes. Because it was night, they said the confusion and darkness made it worse. The you girl being killed was just awful. A lot of people had no idea there was a tornado warning. That is why weather radios or phone alarms are a must.
 
Shreveport AFD:

Higher confidence in a potentially widespread severe weather event
hinges on the timing of these features aligning during the peak of
afternoon heating as the upper trough will take on an increasingly
negative tilt as it pivots NE directly over the region by late Sat
afternoon into the early evening. The strong forcing combined with
very robust shear profiles along the deepening sfc low warrants
ample cause for concern as it relates to the threat for tornadoes.
The likelihood of some discrete supercells developing during the
afternoon seems like a foregone conclusion with this very favorable
setup. Model progs seem to indicate a gradual transition to a more
linear convective mode later in the event by late afternoon through
the early evening hours. All that said, expect all modes of severe
weather to be in play for the duration of Saturday afternoon and
possibly a bit later. The other concern will be for some localized
flooding where very heavy rainfall could occur with individual cells
as well as training storms. This could lead to some flash flooding
concerns which is why all of the region is also included in a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Convection should gradually
diminish through the evening and overnight hours as dry slotting
occurs behind the ejecting upper trough with the cold front exiting
the region by daybreak on Sunday. Expect improving conditions during
Sunday as temperatures will only climb into the 60s for highs.
 
I'm looking over the NAM and I really hope it's just being crazy in it's long range because it's a little crazy for Sunday if you're going to be out on the road. If you're in one spot you can luck up and miss on a tornado, but if you're out on the interstate...you might drive yourself into a mess with severe.

At least if the front keeps stalling, we might be able to outrun that possible mess if we push for ASAP on leaving Sunday.
 
MRStorm said:
You must be in the Trussville area. That was a terrible storm at night. Several of my co-workers were directly hit and had moderate to severe damage to their homes. Because it was night, they said the confusion and darkness made it worse. The you girl being killed was just awful. A lot of people had no idea there was a tornado warning. That is why weather radios or phone alarms are a must.
Click to expand...
Clay chalkville/ center point area. It was awful. My great grandmother was hit, grandmother was hit, and my cousins. Id woken up to the winds roaring but didn't think about it. It was awful. And exactly everybody needs a weather radio.
 
312 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

High Fire Danger conditions are expected through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening for portions of northwest
and west central Georgia due to strong winds combined with dry fuels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

A cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley late Friday,
stalling across north Georgia Friday night. The front will move
north out of the area Saturday. This front will be the focus for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday through Saturday,
mainly across north Georgia. A few of these storms could be strong
with gusty winds.

A stronger cold front will move across north and central Georgia
Sunday and Sunday night bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Instability will increase along and
ahead of the cold front Sunday and Sunday night causing a few
storms to become severe.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top